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Atlantic Power Corporation Message Board

commercegroup 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 2, 2015 12:03 PM Member since: Oct 27, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Well????

    by commercegroup Mar 31, 2015 11:40 AM
    commercegroup commercegroup Apr 2, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    Trep...
    I like your math...
    We did A LOT of "rounding" and "WAGS" and came-up with $5...
    I think your number is more than well-reasoned, it's outstanding!
    At these levels, we're gonna continue to stuff more shares into the Grandkids accounts...
    There's A LOT of chances for upside surprises over the next several years using your numbers or ours... That's the one thing "nice" about "disaster" calculations.
    Patience can indeed be virtuous from the current pricing levels AND it's a pretty cheap option on a return to higher commodity pricing.

  • commercegroup by commercegroup Mar 31, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    I hate to say this but it's really PAINFUL to have half the call with a REALLY BAD connection coming from the presenters...Bad enough to have to sort out a lot of painfully presented english but when the company speakers sound like they're blowing bubbles in a bathtub...
    One of the last questioners did an OUTSTANDING JOB of presenting the shareholder position...Burned a lot of butts and couldn't have been clearer in expressing shareholder frustration with how the company is using its apparently abundant cash resources.
    Looks like 2015 is ANOTHER year of transition...$10 Book...No Dividend...MAYBE the return of capital of a buck or so SOMETIME in the next couple of years IF the Niton assets are sold.
    I'm REALLY HAPPY to see a return to the banking business...There's little doubt in my mind that that's probably the soundest business decision they could have made and it should play well with any upcoming dog-and-pony show.
    All things considered; stock appears to be well-behaved at this point...
    Trep...Sorry I didn't take you up on your dead-fish bet but I DID use some of the sandwich funds to buy a few more cheap shares yesterday just before the market closed...At 50 cents on the dollar...What the Hey!

  • commercegroup by commercegroup Mar 18, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    I would hope that, assuming there's any cash in the till, that a SIGNIFICANT buyback is discussed and implemented...MJS has always said that he buys assets at 60-70 cents on the dollar...I'd say we're overdue for a MAJOR effort (or tender maybe) toward shrinking the float and an "early" announcement of the dividend for 2015 sure wouldn't hurt at this point in time. This kind of dumping is reminiscent of a sailing ship without a rudder and a seasick captain at the wheel.

  • Reply to

    $3.50 After Earnings?

    by gp5561 Mar 15, 2015 2:07 PM
    commercegroup commercegroup Mar 16, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    I'm not sure about the $3.50 AFTER earnings...Looks like we just might make it BEFORE.
    We're sitting tight but I wanna tell ya...It's getting more painful, especially when the rest of the "market" seems to wanna fly...
    There's questions that will need to be answered with the earnings and subsequent conference call.
    Here's a few:
    1. What's current book AFTER whatever in write-offs?
    2. Obviously we didn't get the prime candidate for CEO that MJS was working-on a few quarters back.
    How about letting us "formally" know that?
    3. The Canadian generating plant has to be up-and-running. How's our cashflow?
    4. What is our current cash position? Is it enough to sustain the dividend at current levels?
    5. Our "transition" from Merchant Banking to pretty much a (mostly) Commodity business has been
    pretty much a dud as we caught the downdraft just as it was beginning to get ugly. Are we, maybe,
    gonna return to our roots in Merchant Banking or are we too far gone in our management structure?
    6. Is the CLF "minimum" payment sustainable and is it "pure, unencumbered cash".
    7. Pea Ridge? CML? Norway? China? Trading operations?
    8. What's Lloyd's "intentions" as he accumulates shares AND where're they coming from?
    I guess these would be a good start and certainly there's enough time where they could be "researched" before the earnings announcement and conference call.

AT
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