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Starbucks Corporation Message Board

commonsense1123 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 6:08 PM Member since: Jan 13, 2011
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  • It's just a matter of time before the spike in coffee. I'm sure we will start hitting the tipping point in Sep-Oct where large companies will need to start ramping up purchases. Coffee futures will increase no matter how much they try to down play it.

    Now that Consumers are starting to take the hit on coffee, It will be front and center on news. Expect a plethera of news releases to follow.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • But that has all been disproven ..... Poor shorts one day will get their ares handed to them

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • By the end of the year I'll know if my thesis was correct.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jun 23, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    You should have put more Emphasis on the quality of the bean and followed it back to the shortfalls. Just because there is an abundance of beans doesn't necessarily mean coffee futures remain depressed.

    Look at the article that was put out last week by a noted coffee critic who compared (5) major brands . And focus on what his opinion was on the brands. Most times its not about volume it's about quality. Period

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Too much pain for longs

    by investwisely1234 Jun 25, 2014 4:08 PM
    commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jun 25, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    I personally went through the short debacle with GMCR actually can say I got a great education from it. Was was able to view it from the analytical side rather than from the emotional side.

    There are Major differences between the GMCR short and the NQ short. The main difference is the Caliper of the party doing the short. I would dare say that David Einhorn has a great more intellectual capacity than the 1.8 that Carson Block has.
    Also when David Orchestrates a short, he brings in somewhat qualified people in their profession that can talk in great deal in depth above the average investor with knowledge base to appear to be one of credibility. In David's case he brought in (Sam Antar) Ex-CFO of fast Eddies who was prosecuted for mail Fraud as well as a long list of other charges that he went to prison for. Sam went on to write many articles in Seeking Alpha as well as others.

    The articles that Sam and associates put out was well timed as well. But the major differences is David / Sam and Associates never veered off from initial charges. The accusations were that GMCR was moving product internally to make it seem like they were beefing up profits. Accusations were made of insider trading ect. But they never veered.

    In the Case of NQ it is clear to see all the charges that NQ were brought up on were disproven in a very reasonable amount of time. The only thing that shorts have to hold onto is the release of the F-20 audit. Once that is complete it will be game over for shorts.

    Also one thing to note Applecrispe / Bigjoke etc. were never able to go into was the level of expertise needed in the mobile Security sector / Accounting / or knowledge base of companies doing business with NQ. Thus they lacked the Believability to pull off the short.

    With that said: Longs remember this usually the simplest answer is the correct one. Short's never proved their case NQ has. All that is needed is confirmation, don't let the shorts shake you, you're future depends on it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • commonsense1123 by commonsense1123 Jun 25, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    Will be green coffee followed by premium coffee beans. With crop damage to premium coffee beans and consumers drive for best coffee JVA PPS will rise.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jun 26, 2014 7:31 PM Flag

    Exactly spot on! I have added to my position, agree this is a gift!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just sit back and watch it unfold...8-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jun 27, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    With Not (1) partnership insight? Wonder why? Surely companies can see the value? Maybe not!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to


    by bigjohn424 Jun 27, 2014 3:14 PM
    commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jun 27, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    It's really comical watching the shorts, like they have any control over people selling on a YMB. Just like you I hold a lot of shares and not concerned. The future looks bright for NQ and investors who don't react to the day to day gyrations of this stock. I for one have been taking advantage of the drops. I've increased my position (x2) . I still believe buyout is emminent and I'm leaning toward Alibaba, but that is only MHO.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Very unusual

    by argyle46 Jul 3, 2014 10:10 AM
    commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jul 3, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    Look at GMCR moving up substantial. I still think both companies get purchased together

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by prospern23 Jul 2, 2014 8:22 AM
    commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jul 3, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I think coke takes them both out the same time. Coke is noted for keeping everything under wraps right up to the buy point. I would not be surprised to see buyout by November.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jul 4, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    Still doing your short and distort campaign. You did the same thing with GMCR as I recall you headed for the Hills when GMCR did a 250 million Buyback. Didn't work out so well did it.

    You'll have the same results here, in time.

  • Soda will run to 24-25 until support is met. Lack of USA demand , unrest in Middle East, pressure for healthier drinks, lack of innovation, lack of marketing, lack of partnerships, lack of brand adoption , lack of management, lack of money to be used to create excitement for the product and soon to be lack of need for CO2 cartridges. But above all else lock out from Tier (1) companies.

    Soda thought they were being cute by showing competitions downfalls. What they failed to realize was that competition that they alienated just showed SODA what their real problem was ( SODA's own management ) instead of showing weaknesses of competition they should have been approaching those same businesses with solutions and options, could have taking that from GMCR's playbook but hey what do I know?

    Seth can help you better than I. Soda always Trends with GMCR or at least he thought it did. Now GMCR can see SODA in the rear view mirror, from a very long distance. Now it's too little too late.

    I'm sure Seth can spin it to a positive, just remember 24-25 before support. Good night

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jul 8, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    That is correct! Bingo.

    These shorts don't know what they are talking about. There's a lot of the same ones that shorted GMCR in 2012. I watched 1/2 of my 37.00 investment rocket to 115.00 only to drop to 17.00 from the attack of the short sellers in the course of 9 months. Where is GMCR now 122.00 was 128.00 a few days ago, looks like possible buyout by KO in the next year.

    Fast forward: I now own a substantial amount of shares of NQ. Shorts are killing it, am I worried not one bit. experience has taught me one thing when a stock has been driven this low and the shorts are still hammering it then the real value still exist. It's when they drop off the face of the earth that the stock is domed when driven so hard and they just leave.

    Longs don't get too concerned about the day to day antics of the shorts one day soon they will be gone as fast as they came. Trust the products the partnerships and the expertise of the people in the company that have built it to what it really is and not what the stock price reflects. In the end it will work itself out and you will be rewarded for holding strong. Remember why you purchased NQ and what the possibilities were, sure reports are not out in a timely manner but remember these executives are the best in their field, they aren't financial guru's that's why they hired PWC for that function. Let the process runs its course. Good luck Longs!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If nothing else the aggressive behavior by shorts just validates the unrecognized value of (NQ). Shorts are worried or they never would have attacked NQ day and night for months! The shorts know the other shoe will drop but it will drop on them. Shorts don't want to be the last out the door.

    If shorts truly believed this was going to (0) they would have thrown everything at NQ today but they didn't . I love the fact of the percentage of short shares this is going to get really interesting!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Future is bright, and the blocks that are being purchased could very well be JVA retiring stock as planned. KO is clever and you'll never see it coming until after the fact. GMCR / JVA will be taking out simultaneously. It's fast it's clean and it's professional. Possibly part of the larger plan for KO to compete! And all JVA needs to do is sit back and let it unfold. GLTAL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jul 9, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    Poor rats they never had a chance.8-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • commonsense1123 commonsense1123 Jul 9, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    Agree on your points!

    I've noticed in the past with other companies when under attack by shorts. When information starts coming out destroying the short thesis it generally unravels fast.


    1) no cash. 1) cash verified
    2) no customers. 2) customers verified
    3) audits in question. 3) NQ hires DT / Sherman / PWC

    And the list goes on and on. The question I would love to ask Muddy waters show me your source your verification. MW's needs to be held by at least the same standards as NQ. If they can't bring documentation and verify it, then in it's simplest form not true.

    Everyone see's what (MW) has been doing all along. Running a campaign that changes the scope of the allegations after each allegation has been put to rest.

    As an investor I've been watching the (MW) campaign unravel faster and faster each time. The lead leaving PWC lasted for 3 days. I'm sure shorts made money but the game is all but over for MW. One of 2 things I see happening that kills MW game, 20-f release followed by quarterly results or a partnership / acquisition with a company with deep pockets creating an untouchable moat. Make no mistake NQ will win this battle and will end up a much stronger company having gone through it.

    GMCR did that very thing with KO. David Einhorn even being a Billionaire backed off because big money talks!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • By end of July early August it will all unfold. By the way when is Allibaba IPO expected to release? Oh that's right August.8-)

    Sentiment: Buy

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