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Red Hat, Inc. Message Board

commonsensetrading 15 posts  |  Last Activity: May 23, 2016 10:43 AM Member since: Mar 9, 2011
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  • commonsensetrading by commonsensetrading May 23, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    That was definitely a hit piece paid by the short sellers. That author is a joke, and he presented nothing new. I wonder how much these low level financial internet writers get to do these hack pieces. Seems like an easy job, just publish whatever they hand you to publish and say it's your work.

    The most interesting part of this short hit pieces is that nobody calls out the Prescription Benefit Mangers, who raise prices with drug companies, and actually charge more than the pharma companies do.

  • commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 17, 2016 11:10 AM Flag

    This will be at $50 or $60 in no time. Seem like pharma is capitulating, with Left going long VRX, and Perrigo seems to have bottomed out. There is very little bad news left to hit this sector until election, by then we could easily be at $70.

  • Reply to

    Popping on above average volume

    by sootagain May 16, 2016 3:02 PM
    commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 16, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    Could be run-up before the offer is released, or it could be the beginning of a huge short squeeze due to Friday mornings earnings. Market and short sellers were hoping for an ENDP or VRX type revision to guidance or earnings miss. Watch the chicken farmers bail on a stupid idea, with zero merit. Since the short interest is so high (85% of available shares to short already shorted), it's going to overshoot in the up direction, luckily that could be $50-$70 per share.

    Watch the Financial Times interview on BNN regarding Concordia. The guy who wrote the letter, had no idea how to answer any in-depth questions regarding his article, or the price of other drugs that compete with Concordia's drugs. Interview proved the Financial Times writer was bought and paid for by the chicken farmer and Co. Gee, if Aleve/Asprin/Tylenol are all $4 per bottle, and IBProfurin is $2, and they raise there price to $5, gasp, that's more than 100% price increase and completely acceptable in the free market. What's illegal is four companies getting together and saying lets price it at $5.

  • commonsensetrading by commonsensetrading May 13, 2016 9:41 AM Flag

    Looks like only one specialty pharma is not lowering guidance, and the market is reacting. Time for all the pharma cash from Valeant/Endo to go to Concordia, the one company executing on their strategy. Time for someone's chickens to come home to roost.

  • commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 10, 2016 5:50 PM Flag

    What is wrong with you. Did you listen to the call or read the article, or do you just glance to the number without reading the whole article. That EBITDA includes $10M investment into AT&T in 2016. Most of that cost will disappear in 2017. So really they just guided $9.5 to $11.5M, but you are too stupid to understand that.

    I'm sure they are also being conservative, since they seem to always do much better than what they guide. They can get away with that right now since they only have 1 analyst following the stock.

  • Reply to

    commonsense trading

    by morefunthanrum50 May 6, 2016 4:50 PM
    commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 8, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    say you, just like in 2008 when everything was undervalued, healthcare, mostly pharma is getting killed over public sentiment and a market they do not understand. avg. drug price for AMCO is $4.90, and it's mostly generics. I'll be holding for the next 5 years, avg price 23.01, and while I do wish I sold 42-44 back in January, I'm not trading this. As long as the fundamentals are as strong as they were last quarter, I'll be holding. If there is a real change, not short attacks or articles, I will revisit my long thesis. I bought it because everyone was selling for no reason, and I will continue to hold until I see a fundamental shift if their sales, margins and future growth.

  • Reply to

    concordia is valeant in disguise

    by mav24caca May 6, 2016 1:56 PM
    commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 8, 2016 4:14 PM Flag

    except CXRX is already trading at the level of ENDP. Looking forward to Friday. Keep shorting a company growing around 9-10% trading at PE of 3.9

  • Reply to

    concordia is valeant in disguise

    by mav24caca May 6, 2016 1:56 PM
    commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 6, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    Those prices were raised by the previous owners, not Concordia. The price increases were also nowhere near the outrageous price increases that Valeant made. Like everything else, this is oversold and should be bought on weakness for the next 6 months to a year when this all blows over.

  • commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 6, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    shouldn't affect the stock too much, but considering they beat their numbers every quarter, for 8 straight quarters, it will be interesting to see what happens when they beat again. I'm hoping that we get some revised guidance numbers for 2016 including the AT&T deal.

    This stock is so tremendously cheap right now, it's incredible. I think 6 or 7 in the next month would be close to fair value for current and future business, above that I think it gets expensive.

  • Reply to

    30% year over year revenue growth to 2019

    by mabyabe May 6, 2016 10:44 AM
    commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 6, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    think you are being a bit optimistic. I think we are looking at earnings of $1 per share by 2019, and $30 million in free cash flow, unless another big deal comes in. Very likely now that they have a customer like AT&T. Put that name right on the cover of the sales brochure!

  • commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 5, 2016 1:49 PM Flag

    We mostly like, at some point, will be up somewhere between $1-$3 tomorrow.

  • commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 5, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    Typically stocks like this will start to run up towards the close and after, volume is lower after hours, so it will probably trade up .20-40 cents, then gap up again tomorrow. Buying isn't over yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wall Street Journal Hacked?

    by chessnotcheckersed May 4, 2016 5:01 PM
    commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 4, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    yeah, 8K doesn't lie. Hopefully you weren't dumb enough to short

  • Reply to

    SYNC = dead money

    by platonicjc Mar 28, 2016 9:56 AM
    commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 4, 2016 7:10 PM Flag

    Captain obvious said you couldn't be more wrong, but go ahead and sell a company with more cash than debt, cash flow positive, and a market cap of about 1/3 of the revenue. In a growth space to boot!

  • commonsensetrading commonsensetrading May 4, 2016 7:08 PM Flag

    haha, this guy is an idiot. $6 on open, might not hold, with a potential move to $9-$10 on momentum. Company was worth $2.50-$3.00 easy prior to news, but undervalued and low coverage. AT&T brings a lot of buzz to this thinly traded stock. 3 year deal, worth at least $100M a year starting in 2017, so probably $250M to $275M for initial 3 year contract. Good news is once your in, and executing, very difficult to switch providers. After AT&T, who's the next big one to bite?

RHT
76.52+0.30(+0.39%)May 27 4:02 PMEDT