Totally agree. Xofigo sank the trial. It might not of even been that their cancer was progressing. It could of been Cabo's side effects. Who knows.
I've been listening to the CC's for years too. Usually I am left with a WFT feeling, like I was listening to a JV team. Yesterdays CC was much better, maybe they ran everything by Roche, hell maybe Roche wrote it! They certainly mentioned how happy they are with the Roche Genentech collaboration enough times.
The list of ongoing trials still impresses me, but only if Meteor succeeds in hitting the 7.5 month or more PFS. Show me a SS OS at the end of the trial and we will be set.
I also liked how they talked about how much they have been working on a ex USA partnership with several pharma companies and the expected cash infusion that could bring. Of course assuming Meteor is successful.
Your data set is only dealing with whether or not fast track status was approved and if it was decided as required by statue within 60 days. It is not about whether or not the drug was actually approved.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I just think they are being cautious, which is not a bad idea overall when dealing with small cap bio techs. Hopefully it does not work out for them financially. With 88,000 employees and 50 B in annual revenue Roche can swallow EXEL in one bite, even if the buyout is in the teens.
Thomas Chin's comments after his SA article mentions them buying a slight majority stake with the option to buy the entire co later - which is what they did with Genentech. That would actually be preferable to me.
EXEL needs some more experienced people on the leadership team, which Roche could provide.
I actually thought it was pretty fair. He's basically saying if Meteor fails the Co is in big trouble which is hard to argue with. I disagreed with the point he made in his earlier article that Meteor is more likely to fail than be successful, but he left out any mention of how he feels about the likelihood of Meteor success now.
I am just hoping the share price continues it's climb so that when the hoped for successful Meteor results are released the stock is doubling or more from 4 or 5 dollars a share. We will see.
Let's hope he gone! As much as I dislike the hucksters now hyping the stock, I'm in a better place to deal with that #$%$ since it means the price is going up.
He has a good summary on the trials, but he is a bit too optimistic about their financials. Almost like a pumping article although maybe I would feel differently if he wasn't so new.
There is a decent SA article just up. HE is new and seems a little hyped but the study synopsis's are pretty good. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2922566-exelixis-expected-meteor-trial-success-changes-everything?auth_param=l60g:1ae6p1l:03bbd23db9cc5ad6e03c7fe85ec1086a&uprof=45
The long hoped for bidding war, still waiting 3 years later.
Maybe it will happen but I doubt it. Roche will have the inside track with the knowledge base they have built up. Others will be just guessing compared to know what Roche knows.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yes, but that was the point of the topic.
The run up is because the pro's were able to shake most everyone out. No done with that they are letting the price rise. Buyout by Roche after Meteor, no idea on the value but I'm hopeful the BOD will demand a lot after all the Co has been thru.
I thought this was one of his best talks. As far as being relieved about the PFS totally agree that he seemed excited about that (I don't blame him, I am too).
The rushing part I think is doe to the fact he is a scientist first, so maybe these talks take him out of his comfort zone. He does best when discussing the more arcane bits of the studies; not so well on the big picture stuff. Although again I thought he did much better this time.