IMET is such a great drug, and both the markets and the FDA will have to recognize that. The non-FDA regulators around the world will act, if the FDA does not. The FDA cannot ignore the obvious, including the needs of patients.
The key point is that IMET brings remissions for blood cancer patients, which no other medicine can do.
You are correct. The hedge funds, that were defined (Washington Post, Sep. 2014) as predators killing-off small biotech companies, are now over their heads, and in big trouble. The demand for Geron's stock is now too great for them. The word is out (remarkable medicine).
There is really no more to be said. The nay-sayers have lost control, and PPS will go to $5. More institutional investors will then drive the PPS higher, since IMET is a remarkable drug ("Tantamount to a Cure"). The upward trend will not be linear, so there will be some bumps in the road.
Imetelstat (IMET) will get advance-approval from the FDA (blood cancer basket--MF, MDS, AML) as global trials continue. Dr. Tefferi and Janssen Biotech/JNJ are in charge.
The short covering has just started. Most shorts know nothing about Geron, and are playing on the vulnerability of small biotech stocks. JNJ and IMET put Geron in a class by itsselves.
This time the hedge funds have no leverage. The evidence, that IMET is a remarkable drug, cannot be refuted.
There is enough good data from IMET studies around the world, so that it can no longer be kept from patients and their doctors, that see this as the best, last hope. The IMET positive factors for remissions and safety will not be reversed. Everyone sees that now (in the medical world).
There are no "factors" that are negative for IMET. GERN is a prisoner of the hedge funds, but seems to be breaking loose, as JNJ-Dr. T-Janssen taking control.
It seems these tug-of-wars in Geron's PPS have nothing to do with the quality (safety, effectiveness, need, life-saving) of IMET, but they are due to the ability of shorts and computer programs to control the trading patterns. The FDA could put an end to all of this manipulation (legal or not?), with a few positive words, and advanced-approval. There are no safety issues, so there are numerous reasons to approve. I have to believe that the world is on IMET's side, and the FDA is not far behind.
Are you saying that JNJ and Geron could not enter into a "forward arrangement" in secrecy, without breaking the law ("conspiracy theory")? JNJ, it seems to me, would try to protect themselves, but it seems to me, you are saying that they can't, without a public release of a "forward arrangement". ( I am not sure of the difference between an arrangement and a contract here.) That would guarantee a bidding war, if IMET's successes, and good safety record continues, which appears to be the case.
"No one questions the success of IMET. The medical successes are well documented, and the science has received a Nobel Prize."--from lws2000
This is the truth, and the world has finally seen the light.
I suspect (but don't know) that JNJ has rights to renew any license forever, with appropriate-accelerated payments. The alternative would be a buyout.
We all know in this tug-of-war that: (Science & Medical Success; SM) VS. (Hedge Funds & Shorts; HS) that the ultimate winner is SM. It is a matter "when".
The FDA and JNJ /Janssen have been very silent, while Dr. S (Geron) and Dr. T (Mayo-Geron-Janssen) have been shouting from various heath conference platforms, about the remarkable properties of IMET. It is finally coming together.
Janssen Biotech and the FDA are in talks to free-up IMET for use in blood cancer patients. Standby.
Janssen Biotech is a fully own subsidiary of JNJ, and Geron could become a fully owned subsidiary of Janssen. It looks like the IMET francize will be under one roof (Janssen's) to maximize the use of IMET globally in many trials for various blood cancers and other tumors. Dr. Tefferi will be in charge of the development. FDA approval is coming, but there are now other global possibilities. IMET looks like a "remarkable drug". The drug has been around for quite awhile (4 years in safe use in humans), and is now in the safe, effective, needed category.