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Allergan Inc. Message Board

comsensea 87 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 20, 2014 1:20 AM Member since: Dec 28, 2001
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  • There is no bad news in the mill concerning IMET. Let the good news roll. The abstracts have been written, and will be posted shortly (Nov. 6). At this late date patience and waiting is best policy, IMO.

    Mayo, the ASH abstracts, and ASH presentations will all speak "truth" about IMET. I doubt if the hedge funds can keep the PPS down, but I have been fooled before. I keep looking for some bad news about IMET, but can find none. Good news and the "truth" should benefit the PPS significantly.

  • comsensea comsensea Oct 19, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    What is the impact of these studies in Europe? If the FDA can't get its act together, they are an alternative.

  • Reply to

    GERN pps if Imetelstat can beat cancer?

    by future2back Oct 16, 2014 3:42 PM
    comsensea comsensea Oct 16, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    I believe that "Imetelstat can (and has) beat cancer". The markets are slow (and controlled) to acknowledge and recognize that.

  • comsensea comsensea Oct 16, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    Pancreatic Cancer Potential (Imetelstat)
    Telomerase inhibitor Imetelstat (GRN163L) limits the lifespan of human pancreatic cancer cells.

    (ISSN: 1932-6203)--excerpt

    Telomerase is required for the unlimited lifespan of cancer cells. The vast majority of pancreatic adenocarcinomas overexpress telomerase activity and blocking telomerase could limit their lifespan. GRN163L (Imetelstat) is a lipid-conjugated N3'→P5' thio-phosphoramidate oligonucleotide that blocks the template region of telomerase. damage response (γ-H2AX) and evidence of both senescence (SA-β-galactosidase activity) and apoptosis (sub-G1 DNA content, PARP cleavage). Removal of the drug after long-term GRN163L exposure led to a reactivation of telomerase and re-elongation of telomeres in the third week of cultivation without GRN163L. These findings show that the lifespan of pancreatic cancer cells can be limited by continuous telomerase inhibition. These results should facilitate the design of future clinical trials of GRN163L in patients with pancreatic cancer.

  • comsensea comsensea Oct 16, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Mayo, the ASH abstracts, and ASH presentations will all speak "truth" about IMET. I doubt if the hedge funds can keep the PPS down, but I have been fooled before. I keep looking for some bad news about IMET, but can find none. Good news and the "truth" should benefit the PPS significantly.

  • Reply to

    IMET, ASH, MAYO, FDA

    by lws2000 Oct 10, 2014 10:05 AM
    comsensea comsensea Oct 10, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    The role of Incyte and others (Novartis, Gilead), about asking the FDA to look closer at possible liver problems, was their right. Tefferi knowing the truth (MF trials & no liver damage) had an obligation to hit back hard when the holds were implemented (Mayo's hold is lifted).

    Geron's role going forward is unclear (partner, merged out of existence, try to go it alone {least likely}). As far as I can tell, Dr. T believes in Imetelstat, and is doing everything he can to help Geron get past their hold. FDA is not against IMET. Mayo and the FDA are on the same side.

  • Reply to

    IMET, ASH, MAYO, FDA

    by lws2000 Oct 10, 2014 10:05 AM
    comsensea comsensea Oct 10, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    Of course ASH doesn't get the "hold" lifted, but it will clearly resolve most of the lingering issues that concern Imetelstat as a effective, worthwhile medicine. Most of the investment world does not believe in IMET now. The FDA is not going to oppose scientific and medical truths. They are looking at combined data now (Mayo & Geron). The FDA will not remain silent for long.

  • Reply to

    IMET, ASH, MAYO, FDA

    by lws2000 Oct 10, 2014 10:05 AM
    comsensea comsensea Oct 10, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    1. Incyte may have requested that the FDA take a very close look at the liver problems associated with IMET. The FDA agreed. Incyte has a lot at stake. There are no significant lover problems.
    2. Mayo's data, studies and trials were complete, while Geron's were not. Mayo's hold was lifted, showing that Mayo and Dr. T have influence there.
    3. Geron has deferred to Mayo & the FDA for leadership and direction. The FDA has an interest in MF remissions and cures. Geron was not involved in the MF studies.
    4. I don't believe that Dr. Tefferi has enemies at the FDA. That would be a scandal, and a reason for an investigation.
    5. The Dec. 5 MF conference (before ASH, Dec. 6 to 9) with Incyte's presence, is very interesting and mysterious.

  • Reply to

    ASH=Knowledge=Hope=Truth

    by lws2000 Oct 3, 2014 11:03 AM
    comsensea comsensea Oct 5, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Your questions are the right questions. My guess is that the true force behind IMET is Mayo with their promising MF studies, who brought this medicine to the attention of the medical community. Mayo is in charge, and will be a major presenter at ASH. Geron, for all intents and purposes, is just taking orders. Mayo has done a great job with IMET, and is the communicator with the FDA. That is why Mayo & Geron have combined data. The FDA can ignore Geron, but they cannot ignore Mayo.

  • comsensea comsensea Oct 1, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    The fact that Geron closed at exactly $2.00 suggests control. We will see how much of this is tax loss selling, and how much is hedge fund manipulation. Both are factors. The FDA and Mayo are working together, and we will see where that leads us; good reports about Imetelstat, hopefully.

  • comsensea comsensea Sep 28, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    (More From WP #2)---These characteristics make it easy for a handful of hedge funds to anonymously drive down the price by selling borrowed shares into the market at the same time, creating a self-fulfilling momentum that scares off other investors. Even when they can’t get ahold of enough borrowed shares, they might sell the shares anyway and simply fail to deliver them three days later when they are due. That’s known as a “naked” short, and it’s illegal.

    The shorts’ tactics, however, extend well beyond the trading room. As the nonprofit advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) lays out in a recent white paper, shorts are active in anonymously feeding false and misleading information about their target companies to friendly analysts and bloggers while using social media to attack the intelligence and motives of those who view the company favorably. They enlist plaintiffs law firms to issue press releases soliciting shareholders to sue the target companies for securities fraud. And they pepper regulators with threatening letters and fillings demanding that they investigate their targets or deny them product approvals.

    Such tactics make it difficult and expensive for biotech firms to raise the large amounts of capital they need to conduct drug trials and build production facilities. They were all used in recent years to cripple Dendreon, another company that is a pioneer in the use of immune therapy for cancer treatment, which was so weakened by the shorts that it has failed to recover even after receiving its much-delayed FDA approval. And now they are after Northwest Bio.

  • comsensea comsensea Sep 28, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    (More from Washington Post)--

    Biotech stocks are particularly vulnerable to manipulation by the shorts. They tend to be small, with low share prices and relatively few shares actively traded. And because of the high risk involved — relatively few biotech companies ever succeed — share prices tend to be volatile, easily moved by rumors and news of regulatory action.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Geron looks like an identical situation. Imetelstat is a great drug (Mayo studies), but Geron's PPS is easily manipulated by hedge funds and shorts. This is further confirmation about what many of us have believed. The FDA involvement is a bit cloudy. [ASH=HOPE & TRUTH.]

  • By Steven Pearlstein Columnist--- September 28 (Washington Post)

    The past couple of weeks should have been heady ones for Bethesda-based Northwest Biotherapeutics.

    The small biotech firm, with an innovative new vaccine treatment for brain, prostate and other cancers, had just received an initial green light from British regulators to offer its drug to doctors and patients even before its definitive Phase III trial is completed in the United States. The approval was the first under a new program designed to speed the process of getting promising treatments to market, and it follows a similar decision by Germany in March. Both European regulators cited independent analyses of results from earlier brain cancer trials showing that Northwest Bio’s immune therapy doubled the average of 17 months of extra life now provided by the standard treatment of chemotherapy and radiation.

    But as it happens, Northwest Bio’s stock, after a brief upward spike, ended the week down 11 percent below where it was the day before the news from Britain crossed the ticker. And therein lies an eye-opening tale of how hedge funds and their Wall Street allies stifle innovation and damage the economy in their relentless pursuit of short-term trading profits.

    I’m talking, of course, about the “shorts” — investors who actively bet against companies by borrowing shares of their stock and selling them in the hope that the price will go down and they can buy them back at a lower price before returning the shares to their rightful owner. In theory, short-selling enhances the efficiency of markets by bringing in fresh information and capital. In reality, it has contributed to turning financial markets into a giant casino which is easily rigged for the benefit of insiders.

    Biotech stocks are particularly vulnerable to manipulation by the shorts. They tend to be small, wi

  • Reply to

    ASH (Imetelstat, 2014)=Truth

    by sidesaddlex Sep 24, 2014 10:31 AM
    comsensea comsensea Sep 28, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    There cannot be "TWO TRUTHS". There can be "TWO LIES". If the Imetelstat story, and the Mayo successes turn out to be frauds, hoaxes, or distortions of the truth, I will lose the little faith that I have left. Imetelstat and Mayo Clinics results have been real, honest and truthful--that is my belief. The Geron and the FDA stories are yet to be told.

  • comsensea comsensea Sep 18, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    I don't believe that Dr. T is leaving Mayo, and by "position at Geron" I meant some sort of supplementary function to help patients and Imetelstat. I generally agree with your thoughts.

  • comsensea comsensea Sep 18, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    There are 2 Keys: (1) The reasons for combining data, including Dr. Tefferi taking a position at Geron, while maintaining his position at Mayo; (2) ASH and ASH abstracts

  • Reply to

    My Advice To Geron Investors

    by mruyog Sep 15, 2014 6:22 PM
    comsensea comsensea Sep 15, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Follow-up on reasons for owning Geron stock:

    1. "Geron has only one product, Imetelstat, now which HAS shown to get CRs and PRs to a significantly high percentage of advanced-stage MF patients" (mruyog)
    #################
    This "one product, Imetelstat" is revolutionary (MF, Mayo; combination drugs, Amgen). Telomeres & telomerase are important considerations in most cancers (more than 90%).
    -----------------------------------
    2. "Imetelstat may be creating a serious liver issue if used alone for ET and PV; possibility exists for use of Imetelstat for other hematological applications" (mruyog)
    #################
    There is absolutely no evidence of that. The lift of the Mayo-FDA-hold, and the continuing work on pediatric-brain-tumors (NCI) suggest that the liver-considerations are irrelevant.
    --------------------------------------
    3. "Geron's multicenter Ph 2 MF trial may be directed by Tefferi as it is known to-day" (mruyog)
    #################
    This is a major plus for Imetelstat, and the patients in the phase 2 study. Tefferi and Mayo would not be involved, at this point in time, unless success was an absolute certainty.

  • comsensea comsensea Sep 15, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    The Factors:

    1. Quality, safety and effectiveness of Imetelstat as determined by ASH (before, during, after)
    2. Patient's needs
    3. FDA-Geron mystery relations
    4. Mayo, NCI, Amgen, Yale, Mass. Medical inputs, others
    5. Markets overview (non-medical)

  • comsensea comsensea Sep 12, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    GERN should prove to be the better investment over time. The spectacular rise in ASTY leads me to believe that hESC's are alive and kicking. I have always believed that there is a very close relationship between hESC's, cancer stemcells, and immortal cells. The telomere-telomerase relationships are the future of medicine, including the recent talk about vaccines.

  • Reply to

    On Going Study; No Liver Problems; NCI

    by comsensea Sep 11, 2014 12:28 PM
    comsensea comsensea Sep 11, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    One would think that the NCI would be talking to the FDA and they would be on the same page. These are youngsters, so they would be more sensitive to side effects than most. Imetelstat is safe, certainty compared to other possible cancer treatments, with the hope of remissions always present.

AGN
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