But it's still down 75% in a year! Even after a 50% drop! What a game this is! I know some folks who were loading up on PGN when it was 12, and some similar stocks. Now they're happy that it's back at 3! LOL. What a game!
What a shame, funds were all tied up.
Thanks Mike u2. I am comfortable being all in UNG at these gas prices as I am sure it will eventually get back near 20 even if it takes a year. Ugaz compounding error is scary. Of course since UNG was 400 at one point maybe I am overconfident
OK! Just saying VXX will not hit 40 next week, there were people here posting about it. I would not short VXX just yet, it probably drops in short term but I want to see what the new volatility regime looks like *if* the Fed ever gets out of the markets.
Nice try, you already admitted to being nuked on the short side last week lol. But yes, VXX is going to get hammered for a while now. Maybe March Fed meeting and/or June it will get a little bump. Stock market bubble is great for shorting volatility.
Sure it will. Even though this product is designed so each spike hits a lower high than the last one, and the last spike didn't even get to 40, it will go to 50 immediately. Just because you said so. There is no way it gets to 40 next week let alone 50. Forget about it.
Well, 35 on UVXY is say 25%. That's a bit over 10% on VXX, in other words 38ish. I am saying VXX will absolutely not get to 40 next week which is what "schizo" was worried about. We shall see, but I do not see it happening.
Those would have to hit 23 or 24 area for VXX to hit 40 next week. Possible but extremely unlikely.
I'm also interested in maybe buying BOIL, then switching to UGAZ if BOIL keeps dropping. Really hard to figure what's happening right now.
When this drops it sure drops fast.
Thanks Mike, that is really weird. Yahoo has been having some issues. I got an e-mail from you about DWTI yesterday but nothing further. Is the bid/ask on DWTI normally a full dollar (or 3%)? I have never traded it. I like the 1 cent spread on UGAZ. I think $4 is a given for UGAZ, maybe even $5. But I do not own it just yet (probably should be buying today but my funds are tied up for 2 more weeks hope I don't miss it).
It might hit 2 first who knows but it will hit 4.
4 is a given for UGAZ or for gas? $4 gas would take UGAZ to 7! I would like BOIL if the bid/ask were tighter.
I have a very high level of confidence we will get back to $4.
I hope it works out for you, I really do! $5 would be almost 100% gain which means you need 20-25% gain in UNG starting just about now to avoid the decay. It sure looks like these prices are unsustainable.
GL to you as well man. Yes, I wish I had bought UWTI and GASL, what a run. Of course they're still down what 90%? LOL. You're right to be basing decisions on NG price rather than UGAZ price since it means nothing. I can't see NG at 2 but that would put UGAZ at 1.50 or lower, correct? Incredible. I agree an equivalent move to DGAZ would put UGAZ at 9 or 10 now so just because it seems impossible doesn't make it so. But it sure looks bleak right now. Of course we got compounding error and contango to deal with. I have not bought yet, I may regret it.
I would guess there are some people who have lost virtually all of their capital and that is truly sad.
I do think UGAZ will double from its low. Just not sure what the lows will be. Natural gas at these prices is unsustainable. Of course we have the compounding decay. I cannot see how UGAZ will ever get back to even 5, and a lot of people were buying much higher. However I think 3.75-4 will happen.