I kind of do think I need to do something. I can't just sit in cash and I don't see many good values in the market. I don't see a realistic scenario where owning a big chunk of RIG at 8 (not counting the premium) in a year would be a problem. Figure by late 2016, early 2017 it should be back up there. Hoping I can get 1.25 for those puts on Tuesday.
I think this one probably goes to 0. RIG looks like a great long term buy but short term could be painful. I am selling the RIG Jan 2016 8 puts for income. The break even would be 6.75 and if RIG is there I will be OK buying unless the world has plunged into catastrophe and RIG is 0. LOL.
The 15 puts which are roughly at the money are 4.30. I assume if the stock price declines big time, the 8 puts, if they were about in the money would be about (8/15)*(4.30), or 2.35 area.
I don't have much confidence that either RIG or PGN will be higher in a year. At least I know RIG will still be in operations, PGN I believe is an exceptionally high chance it goes to 0.
If it goes to 8.01, I collect the 1.25 per share. If it goes to $30, still just 1.25 per share. A cowardly approach but it is all I have the confidence for now.
RIG does seem like a good buy. I don't have quite as much confidence as you, and am a bit of a chicken, so I am planning on Monday to sell the Jan 2016 $8 strike puts. I do not see any way those will close in the money, and the $1.25 premium is very nice.
That's awesome! I love to hear stories like this as it gives me hope. That means you've been doing 50-55% per year annualized. Truly remarkable! Everyone thinks Buffett's 21% is fantastic. Have you thought about writing a book, publishing your results?
How long did it take to make that million bucks? What were your biggest trading vehicles to do it? Not sure it is just about guts, lots of guys trade forex with 100:1 leverage and have guts- and bankruptcy!
Well, of course the rally isn't real. US stocks are incredibly overvalued and we're in the biggest bubble in history with the possible exception of 2000. However, why would the market suddenly care that stocks are overpriced?
Fed won't let the market fall anymore, what a HUGE rally today I am just surprised XIV isn't up more.
I've got some powder. What % of your overall portfolio are you putting in XIV at each level? I will eventually be close to 100% in.
This is going to be big.
Thanks, good picks there. SDRL/RIG seem to be holding up well now, not sure we can get them any cheaper.
The point is it shows how unstable the whole system is. When you have oil drop from 115 to 45 it is not just supply. It's a demand issue and commodities are forecasting a terrible global recession.
Ha exactly. Usually when I feel sick is the time to buy. It's not the bottom but it ends up being a nice return. I've lost nearly 20% myself and it's mostly from oil stuff. Hopefully you're down much less. What are you holding? I have some MEMP, used to have LINE and PGN too. RIG looks like a good buy and on and on. Now if oil goes to $30 we will have to rethink that. Obviously the less leverage a company has the better.
Let's forget the hyperbole for a moment and forget how much money we may all have lost. What are you all doing going forward? I will not buy this but some of the players like RIG look enticing.