The hedge fund shorts and the non hedged shorts will do everything in their power to keep the genie in the bottle. Short covering may not become an issue until we trade above 6.90 for a 20 out of a 30 day period. The hedge would no longer work in their favor and conversion would make sense as they deliver their new shares to cover the short, and EXEL would then have won their bet and would have a greatly reduced debt load.
We wouldn't want anyone to infer the positive implications of this study, would we? Of course we are all aware that clinical testing will have to be done, but medical history is replete with miraculous drugs that work for one thing but were originally developed for something else.
The association of clearly worse outcomes with higher cMet in more than one cancer makes Cometriq ( a drug that '"clearly" reduces or eliminates cMet ) a leading candidate to be "the next big thing" in cancer research.
From the article: Kind of a layup for Cometriq, don't you think?
"To our knowledge, this is the first meta-analysis that strongly suggests high c-Met status represent adverse prognostic biomarker for overall survival in GC patients. Patients with tumors that harbour high c-Met expression are more likely to have a worse OS, and this prognostic effect was independent to disease stage. However, large studies using standardized unbiased methods are still required before c-Met testing can move toward routine clinical application as a prognostic tool.
Collectively, this study’s overall findings support the hypothesis that c-Met expression level is associated with overall survival in GC patients. Future studies should try to block HGF/c-Met pathway so as to prolong the overall survival of GC patients, and the prognosis of patients harbouring high c-Met expression would be changed with more and more clinical trials evaluating targeted agents against HGF or c-Met in GC patients."
Whoops, it looks like a Wed Nov 6th release. Sorry about the date error.
So have you heard any "whisper" numbers?
The shorts seem to be a little anxious to cover and if we get a similar beat to last quarter we could see a fairly strong short squeeze taking the share price right back up over $20.
If you can trust Yahho! Finance's reporting. Of course, somebody was also on the sell side; the premium was for .85. Seems a little heavy for stock option 5% out of the money with only 6 months to go. Somebody knows something and they were willing to put their money where their mouth was.
Thank you wild.
Do you think EXEL's weakness for the last 2 days may have something to do with the possible confusion of tivozanib(Aveo) and tivantinib(ARQ197) and the misidentification of tivantinib as a cMet inhibitor?
George Scangos, former CEO of EXEL , and current CEO at Biogen Idec, still owns a hefty piece of EXEL and knows the business as well as anybody and is till on EXEL's board. He hasn't sold his shares and it is interesting to note that he has grown Biogen's share price (to around $50B) with a strategy of expanding the indications for existing drugs in the Biogen pipeline. Morrissey seems to have learned well at his mentor's feet, but the convertible offering last year was a major mistake, caused mainly by a former Goldman Sachs finance banker and M&A guy, Frank Karbe. We will soon find out if Morrisey and Karbe were simply idiots or were pawns for a large TO bid when OS previews in ASCO abstracts take most of the risk out of EXEL.