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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

confluence12003 5 posts  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2016 10:06 PM Member since: Feb 17, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Serious question to longs

    by kudlowsflooziegirl May 9, 2016 2:51 PM
    confluence12003 confluence12003 May 16, 2016 10:06 PM Flag

    But a balance sheet with extra load of inventory. Inventory turns dropped off a cliff.. I'm looking for first signs of this turning around.

  • Reply to

    Agnostic Belief

    by dachmeister4u Apr 27, 2016 5:54 AM
    confluence12003 confluence12003 Apr 27, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    You're right, Dave knows value, he sold or exercised a ton over $100; I should have followed him. It would be nice if he now made some outright purchases........He's got the means, it would seem.

    Regarding Chinese OEM growth, the CRUS transcript makes a lot of mention of Chinese android mid-tier activity. It's worth reading, and CRUS doesn't sound bad at a forward PE of 13 and a lot of emphasis on organic growth-- and a progress toward diversification away from APPL (right now at 62% according to a Motley Fool article that is also worth reading).

    My take is that APPL was too adamant for too long at demanding $600+ and left the door open for these mid-tier Chinese companies.

    Lastly, I just bought a mid-tier 4G LTE Chinese phone for $200 and it works beautifully in running a demanding Audubon bird app.

  • confluence12003 confluence12003 Apr 8, 2016 11:06 AM Flag

    Who would've thunk it. This is the day that Chang has always envisioned: keep the company afloat for an eventual big retirement package. There never was any plan to grow the company beyond the level that was necessary to stay competitive, either because Chang was so conservative and cautious or he was afraid of giving up total 100% control.

    Having said this, however, AFOP still turned out to be my most profitable investment ever, mainly because people never took seriously the dynamic nature of the sector they were in: first of all the connectivity of fiber optic for land based lines and secondly the burgeoning growth in data centers. Investors are a strange lot.....herd mentality and all that.

  • Reply to


    by jethro_tull_flute Apr 1, 2016 9:26 PM
    confluence12003 confluence12003 Apr 2, 2016 11:28 AM Flag

    I was in the same place a couple of months ago by owning SWKS and QRVO. Well, QRVO had a not so great quarter and outlook so I sold at 43 and watched it go down to mid 30s; now it's at 50. I've got a several year horizon on SWKS and prefer them to AVGO and QRVO because of operational excellence which translates to cash flow out performance. And nothing but good things comes from cash flow. It also seems to me that SWKS has developed a close relationship with customers, based on their comments about being in the early stages of design process.

    My biggest vulnerability is that one of the competitors gets a really big edge on a technology. Maybe I'll reassess then. Owning QRVO helped to mitigate that possibility, but the sector concentration ended up being too great.

  • confluence12003 confluence12003 Mar 4, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    Average hours worked is less than 35. I think that hours worked has been over 50 in the past when the economy was really humming along. Then Americans were accused of being workaholics compared to the rest of the world. So what gives now?