the company continues to do well. I'm thinking the big pop higher in gold and silver this month might be helping and cards are alive and well also
Amazon and Ebay were both $40 7 years ago and today Amazon is over $300 and Ebay is at $57. And no, neither one has split in these 7 years. Bezos has blown ebay and Donahoe completely away. Donahue has basically destroyed ebay. Ebay should be a $100stock easy,but Donahue chased millions of buyers and sellers away with 1 bad move after another. His criminal reward of $23 million is one more reason to never own ebay
That's fairly heavy insider selling they've done in 3 of the last 4 months. The December 9th selling helped knock it down to under $22 level. I added shares earlier today in hopes the insider selling is done until the spring and that gold's nice pop higher since early November has got more coin collectors coming back to buy and the next set of numbers will show an increase in interest. Hoping CLCT follows the price of gold up a bit
The stock will already be priced higher before the numbers you look at are published. The way to win is to buy BEFORE the numbers are posted
probably a good time to buy after the 20% drop. Waiting for $15 and a 40% drop sounds greedy. Gold has had an excellent 10 days and appears to have bottomed a few weeks ago and the US dollar's strength will start to slip if it's a bad Xmas retail season or just an average Xmas retail season. I would think the coins would follow gold's recent pop and start to show an increase in sales, but that CLCT will rise in advance of the actual release of numbers. I think this big push lower was intended to drive out some weak hands so I just added to my position at $20.23 and will hope it works
The actual certification numbers for coins had a good last quarter but the month of October was slower, which might explain the drop and the profit taking. Have to see how the numbers look for November and December and into Xmas
I bought about 18 months ago in the $14 range and have held throughout and added a bit at the $18 range when dbtunr posted some positive certification numbers. He suggested to sell at $25 and take some profits, but I decided to hold and see if the November numbers improve over the October numbers
This is how it is with most businesses now. The top people are way overpaid and take way too much of the profits. They make so much in the short run that they really don't care if the business fails as long as they do great for 5 or 10 years. That said, if the slowdown continues they won't be getting any bonuses next year. Have to watch the November numbers closely
I think the November numbers will be important to watch for to see if they reverse the downward trend of October. The CEO focused on the quarter and the first 9 months and didn't mention October numbers
Earnings report is good with continued growth, but not huge growth. The CEO sounds cautiously optimistic for the next quarter and year. I think CLCT remains a hold with a 5%+ yield and slow growth higher. I would think most fund managers hold this one. dbtunr can help us if he stays in November and updates on cert. numbers. Anything exciting in conference call? I rarely bother with them
I get your point and the same works with low priced cards, but I don't think a lot of people were paying $9 to grade $22 coins anyway. You could be right and they'll say things are slowing down and that they'll have to lay off a few of the graders. But if there is an industry slow down, then maybe the industry will consolidate and there will be less competition next year
The 3 year chart of gold and CLCT shows that as gold drops, CLCT goes higher. It appears to help or be a non-factor
Thanks for your advice and all the numbers and if you're right then you will have made the right move. But a slow month of October and some slow coin shows and the price of gold is not enough for me to try to speculate that $25 will be the high. And while I listen to others, I always think for myself and make my own decisions and disagree with your guess that $25 is a high. My guess is that it is not a high. I think the outlook for Xmas and next year will be fine and I disagree with your latest idea that the price of gold dropping will bring it down to $18.
As gold rose, CLCT actually dropped and now as gold drops CLCT continues to hit new highs, so this appears to work opposite of what you think. In fact in December of 2012 when CLCT hit a bottom of $10/share; gold was at $1,700/ounce. And since then CLCT has risen to $25/share while gold has dropped from $1,700/ounce down to $1,150/ounce. I'm holding and look forward to seeing what the CEO says.
Gold and silver prices might not be a big factor with how many people send in their coins to be graded and maybe falling prices could lead more people to grade their coins and get them sold.
But either way, I don't think the price of gold and silver are as big an effect on CLCT as logic would dictate
because CLCT has risen from $12 to $25 during the same approximate period as gold has dropped from $1,900/oz down to under $1,200/ounce? It actually seems that as gold and silver drop heavy, CLCT hits new highs.
I'm holding and hoping the earnings release presents a good outlook for Xmas and 2015.
dbtunr, I agree with all your points and agree CLCT might present a bad outlook for next year. But I also know there are millions of collectors worldwide of coins and lots of card collectors and that as prices drop, many look at this as a buying opportunity. And as American exports begin to feel the pinch of the stronger dollar, I think it makes sense that the we(America) begin to manipulate the dollar lower, which will help stabilize the metals price. This is pure speculation on my part and your points are more factual and based on current numbers
But there might be other factors which maybe we don't know about and a good business can come up with ideas to help profits. If business slows, they can lower their price to entice more grading or they can lay off a few people. And also, how is NGC doing? Wouldn't they also be doing less business and isn't it possible that the industry might have some buy outs? Or that some of the small competitors might go under? I do agree with your points and understand them, but for now I'm holding
You make a very good point about metal prices because they directly affect the price of the coins and as the U.S. dollar strengthens due to the rest of the world's weakness; most commodities including gold and silver, continue to get driven lower. But this has already happened, so what matters most is what lies ahead and whether the dollar will continue to strengthen which would drive gold and silver prices lower, or whether the dollar will stabilize or weaken which would help stabilize the metals or drive them a bit higher. If the dollars continues to strengthen then American exports will begin to drop. So I would guess that America will manipulate the dollar to weaken a bit later this year and into next year, which should help gold and silver prices to stabilize or move a bit higher
I also question whether the American economy is improving as much as many experts
believe. Maybe it is and if it is, then the metal prices dropping makes sense and the decrease in coin interest also makes sense. But if the experts are wrong and the American is not really doing as well as they think, then the dollar won't go much higher and will weaken next year. I agree with your points dbtunr, but I'm holding because I think the U.S. dollar will be manipulated lower to help exports and that this will lead to gold and silver prices stabilizing and then rising a bit next year
I agree with you that this is an odd time for them to make the earnings announcement. I'd guess if they say there's been a slowdown and their outlook is only average or worse than it probably drops 5 to 10%, but if they say their outlook is good, than maybe it only drops a bit or even goes higher. I think what's most important is what they say their outlook is for the next quarter and not what their past numbers were. If they're slowing a bit with certs, then I'd have to wonder if the other competitors are also slowing or if another company is cutting into their dominance