Looked at board to see if any info on Semiannual report. What was there was a post by Bigalslab with two thumbs up. Of course it was all lies and fabrications. First point was "The price of RE rose 8.43% this week" Here is the actual quote from article of Feb17 " The rare earth price index rose to 144 points on Monday, up 8.43% from the record low of 132.8 points in 2014, according to data from the Association of China Rare Earth Industry (ACREI). " So hardly a rise in the last week. and the info was 10 days old. He forgot the next sentence. "The Chinese are tightening their supplies of rare earths as prices of the materials, such as terbium and dysprosium, are soaring. "
So price rise was not this week and was for RE not produced by Lynas.
If you want to read whole article go to MCP it is the top article in headlines section. On a positive note Nd 99% oxide rose 9% and Nd 99% Metal rose 3% in the EU over last couple of weeks. We all know Lynas cannot separate Pr and SM from ND so this does not help them. But seeing some of the prices that rose in china end of last year trickle into EU means we could be at bottom. Question is will rise be in time to help Lynas. I doubt it.
I figure this post with facts deserves 5 thumbs down on this board.
Sorry for late reply. Even thought you went on line and placed this yourself with one of the online shops the online shop is considered a broker Nonhuman just a computer but it is still a broker. Knowing how a broker works regardless if they are flesh and blood or just silicon and wires is important.
I think I found what you were referring to. It was an article by "the street". here is the quote
"The rare earth price index rose to 144 points on Monday, up 8.43% from the record low of 132.8 points in 2014, according to data from the Association of China Rare Earth Industry (ACREI).
The Chinese are tightening their supplies of rare earths as prices of the materials, such as terbium and dysprosium, are soaring."
So the index is up but not for What MCP produces. You should have read the rest of the article it was quite
.negative on MCP. But it is clear you are unable to comprehend or quite willing to twist facts to support your point. I am long MCP and think it will turn out well. But last thing we need is a bunch of pumpers posting things that just are not true. Raising then dashing people hopes. MCP may be a great turnaround story but it is still very high risk. lets sell it on accurate facts not hype,
Please give your source. I checked Metal pages expecting some excitement because they up date on Tuesday and Thursday. Nd is up 5% since November but only in China it is down or flat outside of china. Everything else is down inside or outside of china. You may be correct in which case it is good news. but with metal pages not confirming you must give more data on which elements Time period and source of info.
A few posts and my own behavior have led me to believe I have become obsessive and sarcastic on this board. I have also said everything I am thinking many ways. Saying it differently will not make much difference. I also believe most long term holders even if they agree with me probably will hold for the remote chance something just might happen. So time to take a break and stop posting. So unless something major occurs you will probably not hear from me till I have read semiannual report and see if there is any clarity or further info. One opinion I have changed recently is Amanda does recognize many of the problems and is probably trying to tell us as much as she can. If you ignore all the bullet items at the beginning of the last Q report and carefully read what she says and compare the change to past statements it gives a quite open assessment. I would not buy Lynas even at these prices but a sincere best of luck to those that have and if things turn I would really like to join you, will be quite happy even if price is 0.15 or 0.25. CJ
I agree rough patch is an over simplification. This is prolonged and will probably take 5 more years to fully recover.
Since you were on buy side I will talk about buy side mirror image is true on Sell. First orders are filled by time orders are posted so if other buyers posted before you at same price the orders filled first will be the oldest orders. They start at the closets buy order above the sell price. If no limit they have some rules based on last trade to decide where to start. Then they work up the ladder first by price and then time at that price. So it is quite possible depending on volume that all the lower sellers were filled then they went to the next seller it was above your price, Complicated, but computers do it quickly. An order for 10,000 shares usually takes several sellers to fill it. Your broker must record and tell you about each trade. All trades on the same day are considered one trade as far as your bill. I have seen orders only receive a few shares on a large order when partials are allowed. Back in march I placed a large order for a $0.20 stock. IT took 22 partials to fill it one for less than a 100 shares. You can refuse partials when you place order.
There are exceptions to this. The biggest is if your broker is a market maker for the stock, If the broker is, then they must say so on every transaction slip for the stock. If your broker is a market maker then he trades out of his inventory to all his customers. The broker avoids most fees on trades for popular stocks by doing this, savings not passed on to you. He must fill you whenever the price on the exchange crosses yours. You will always be filled at your price regardless of what is going on at the exchange, Brokers must post your trade to the exchange. There are rules on when they have to do it usually before close. I sincerely doubt any broker is a market maker in MCP. As long as MCP is on the NYSE you can look at the "book" before placing your order. Why 99,999 and not 10K???
One last comment. The plant, design, construction and slips were very important but not because of slips. But because they are responsible for the stock dilution and debt.
As far as blaming management I might. You do not fill in enough info to know. When they went into production is a concern but low on list, funny of all the items I posted you picked up on least important. Here is a few details of what I might do. If they still have over 3 billion shares and $400,000,000 + in debt due in less than 2 years, and two plants at full production making what they are currently producing, I most certainly would still be negative. If they had $100,000,000 in debt with payments due over 10 years, 1.5 billion Shares, A Phase one plant and a new plant processing the SEG, Nd, Pr, Sm, and some La, into higher value products I would be buying and touting the stock. I am not sure where the changeover point in this would be. You seem to forget in 2011 I was one of biggest supporters of this stock and put over 5% of my portfolio in this stock which is the highest amount I have ever put into a stock that I consider speculative. That in April of 2014 I tried to buy Lynas up to 3% of my portfolio. Luckily achieved just over 1%. This was after NC came out of March directors meeting and made predictions verbally that were backed up a few days later with a formal press release. Sold all when hard data came out at end of month. Posted the buy right after I stopped buying, stopped because price moved well past my limit. Posted sale when I was about 75% complete in sale. I never give share or $ amounts even when I talk to friends.
I will still love to know if the executives were lying or just so out of touch with reality that they had no idea what was happening.
So as you form all these conclusion about my personality and objectives without even meeting or talking to me please try and remember some history.
First I do not want others to think I have "intimate knowledge" I have never done a count of errors I made and pointed out. There are many I do this for two reasons. First I learn far more from mistakes I point out publically than ones I try to hide. I have learned that I do not learn much from hidden mistakes. I spend all my time hiding and camouflaging and not much analyzing. Second I want people to know that I make mistakes and think about what I am saying and when they find problems point them out for my benefit. A guess there is a third as well admitting a mistake gets it out there and behind you and that always feels good to me.
Why don't you try something new. Instead of spending all this time trying to analyze some one you have never even met, why don't you spend some time diging into my data finding a few holes (I am sure there are many) and adding something that will help people understand Lynas. All your posts about me do nothing to help understand Lynas. If I am what you say data will show people quickly.
You say that prices are all that counts. I submit this challenge to you. Assume Phase I produces 10KT PA in spec product from now till FY 2017 Assume Phase II produces 1 KT FY Q3 2015, 2KT FY Q4 and produces at a 10 KT PA from there out. Assume a 5% REO price increase for first half 2016. 10% second half FY 2016 and 20% first half 2017. All price increases are based on today’s prices not the previous Q. I think these numbers are much better than what Lynas will see but I am happy to use them. What is there EPS for the next 7 Qs? How much cash do they raise to make the payments in 2016 to Sojitz and Mount Kellett. You will need to make assumptions just define them as you make them. I know plants design capacity is 11KT PA but even well designed plants need maintenance. If you want to use 11KT PA go ahead. I have done this with more conservative numbers but not posted it.
So you do not think the $430,000,000 in loans with their interest and principle payment are a problem. That the nearly 2 Billion shares issued to raise cash over the last 5 years is not going to have a major impact on EPS and therefore stock price. That the fact the plant is now 3 years late and missed outputting any product when prices were several times what they are today which could have cleared and or prevented Debt. So none of these things have been major contributors to today’s situation. I do agree that prices are a major part of today’s problems. If the plant had even been close to NC promise of when it would start and be productive, If they did not have debt, and share dilution was not so extreme the low prices would have caused a very rough patch but they could have got by it. Think about Phase II not being build but in stead a post processing plant to create 99.9% oxides and some metals. This plant could have separated out the SM from the Nd Pr blend fetching a much better price. It is you that fails to see the whole picture and is a single subject. Prices are a major problem I do not debate that at all. There were many who could see where the management team was taking this company and got out. I have watched many companies fail and there is usually one item that pushes poorly run companies over the edge and for Lynas & MCP it was prices no doubt. But it was poor management that put the companies in such a week position that the slightest nudge push them over. If you think that prices were the whole problem than you will not learn from this and that is a shame. This whole discussion reminds me of when I said I sold because of the management flaws I saw. You jumped in and said it was prices. First I know why I sold. If it wasn’t prices something else would have caused this poorly managed company problems. . A well-managed sound company could have survived the prices till they recovered.
Couple of quotes and why I think they are important.
"In this quarter excess and off specification stocks accumulated during the start up phase of the plant were sold. Stock on hand at the end of the quarter consisted mainly of consignment stock with a small amount of Cerium and Lanthanum which is expected to be sold in the March quarter."
They lost more this Q than last in spite of selling nearly 2 K ton of material whose production expense was recognized in previous. Qs It was probably low value material but no data was given.
"Solvent Extraction is the current LAMP constraint with only Phase 1 in full operation. The Phase 1 Solvent Extraction circuits have been operated at design rates, but the reliability of operation is still improving."
"For example, production of NdPr was limited in the period from 20th December to 7th January due to instability in the solvent extraction phase."
These two indicate that extraction is still not worked out yet. Amanda has taken first step in fixing any problem that is admitting it. Something NC never did. Fixing it will take time, cash, shutdowns and periods of low production while new things are tried.
"On spec NdPr pricing reduced by US$3.4/kg in the December quarter compared to the September quarter, which was reflected in Lynas prices outside China. "
Why did there price drop $3.40 when market dropped. about $1.00
I cut out these segments you should go back and read entire sections. I would also like to suggest you read the entire FY Q1 then read the entire Q2. This will take less than 20 minutes. Tell me what you think when these are read back to back.
The root of Lynas’s problems are from 2010 and 2011. Those decisions were long ago but they still have a severe impact. This was fuelled by high prices and a strange competition between NC and Smith at MCP. Everyone knows that prices for 99.9% pure oxides soared, What most forget is the low quality REO rose more on a % basis. NC knew he had to get in fast and took the cheapest easiest design possible. He did not care about Quality because low quality was going up fastest. When plant problem started to show he did not get involved or involve his staff. Read statements from that period My Malaysian plant manager (MPM) tells me this. My MPM assures me of this. Even when delays stretched out for a year no AU involvement. NC and Smith got into a capacity race and both started Phase twos with no idea how phase one would work or product would be received. The top of price bubble was over but no one was showing any caution. So we come to today Lynas has two plants that are identical and put out product that is in low demand. The in demand Products Nd and Pr they cannot make reliably. The three plants, I include MCP, can output more than 40 K Tons PA. More than the market will be able to absorb for about 5 years. Amanda is doing a much better job of taking the final separation process problems seriously than NC ever did but they are not solved. To fix them will take shutdowns and cash. Yes if we had prices of 3 years ago Lynas could make money. A headwind is not the problem it is a company with a plant that uses an old technology process. Built by people that were poorly supervised. This has tremendously diluted their stock and accumulated huge debt to raise needed money. It is years of bad management that is causing this. The bad management is turning this headwind into a sinking, instead of just a rough ride. I am sorry for harping on this but I have my reasons.
I agree your statements on price change was at a point that they would not change Q. I took a cheep shot and should not have. To reemphasize my point Prices did not change at all till December They then went down $1.0 or 1.5% in December. Why did there price go down $3.50. Why with all the public market data available to Amanda, as well as private contacts does she treat these small price changes as such an unpredictable event.
Still no answers to Questions. I do apologize for the bad grammar and spelling I am not proud of it. I have apologize for using “No” with oxides it was an overreaction to people not realizing what the plant put out. Unfortunately you got hung up on word "no" and never really figured out the quality of output. I apologize for not being clearer and more precise.
One last point your quote used to defend Amanda I did not pay much attention to it at first until you used it. I do agree she has no control on prices. But with all her contacts she should understand the most likely direction of REO prices? Why does she treat prices as something that disrupted all her plans. I believe she says they think prices will turn around. I believe they will be nearly flat. Why not have a best case worse case plan. Every planning meeting I have been in we planned for the expected course, always with contingencies for being wrong. My memory of the video that you brought to our attention was its most optimistic forecast was 3.2% CAGR in the next 5 + years but little change in 2015. Prices are still going down but very slowly why a drop over 3 times larger in what they receive than the market change? I would really like to have a discussion with you on some of these issues. Or anything else you would like on Lynas’s future.
Excuse me my opening line first post says I will use Cal. Qs. Sept. is Q3 Dec Q 4. either way is correct. I stated which I was using and was consistent Stop looking so hard for errors and address facts.
Next you were the person that said prices were going up. (Remember your posts about china prices) I went to metal pages and posted the changes, Down. Please answer me why did their prices go down more than the market with all the hype of Q3. Please answer me why they went from an invoice system last Q that Amanda hyped as being more informative to cash this Q which made it impossible to discern how they are doing. I ask many Questions in the two posts. Point out many of Amanda's conflicting statements. You mouth her statement about prices which disagrees with your earlier post and is not backed up by prices posted on MP. But not one word on where the more complex issues are wrong. I guess I should have misused, There or Their, or maybe, To, Too, Two. You always have a blast pointing out those errors. Never have you be courageous or smart enough to do the digging to offer any thing substantial to the argument. I do not expect you to intelligently address any of my Questions. But if you could I would love to have a good discussion.
Unstill then I will expect more of the same find something like how I defined Qs and make a big deal.
The reasons I use calendar Qs is as I file info on different companies it avoids confusion. As long as I am clear which I was than what is the problem. Or do you just like to nitpick people that don't agree with you. Please please please give some substance to your arguments why this company is going to turn around not just a mouth piece for Amanda. How do you explain cash flow. How do you explain Amanda's statements on next Q. or all the hype on how well the Kiln is working with just occasional statements on the disaster in separation.
Next they were supposed to get a better price for NdPr from the top of page 4, “On spec NdPr pricing reduced by US$3.4/kg in the December quarter compared to the September quarter, which was reflected in Lynas prices outside China.” From Metal Pages with the exception of pure ND metal most Nd products fell about a $1.00. Pr fell about $4 PrNd oxide blend fell from $67.50 to $66.50 Why did they fall $3.40?
She hypes that the Cracking, leaching and kiln are all running very well. These are the easy processes. Then much further into report “The Phase 1 Solvent Extraction circuits have been operated at design rates, but the reliability of operation is still improving.” Extraction of solvents and elements is key to whole thing! Why not some data? She continues “Commissioning of the Phase 2 Solvent Extraction plant commenced during the quarter. Some of the Solvent Extraction stages require significant REO feed which has required several weeks to load and stabilize. A portion of the REO fed into the LAMP was used to fill the Phase 2 Solvent Extraction stages therefore reducing production of ready to sell product. Production of on specification NdPr from Phase 2 is expected in the next quarter.” Why not explained fully this last Q when she was so up on this Q. Could she not see that this was coming.
I would like to put out numbers for the Q on production cash flow. I have to make too many assumptions to present any reasonable number. They made it impossible to interpret no wonder they will not do a CC.
Amanda did make a prediction for next Q. “Actions to address this issue are being implemented and production is now returning to stable rates. Whilst we will seek to recover production through the current quarter, it is unlikely we will be able to mitigate the full effect.” This Q was bad. I take this statement to mean next will be worse. Will this cause the penalty to kick in which based on current trends they will not be able to pay?
All Qs are calendar Q Sept is Q3 Dec Q4
Let me say that Lynas has changed several things that make it impossible to know what is going on for sure. I will point out a few of these that are major but there are allot. From past posts you know how I feel do your own investigations and form your own opinions.
First After all Amanda’s talk in Q3 about clarity this is unclear. On page two of Q3 she talks about the new table explains what each line is and how it differs from 5 B and how together they give a very clear picture. It did not last. Gone is “ gross Sales value total” Replaced with Sales recipes total. This is not a small difference. The first is value of what was shipped out the door. The second is what was paid for. This change also allowed all the old material sold to be included. Over the long haul (3 to 6 Qs) these are equal. Over a quarter or two these can be manipulated many different ways . The sales could be manipulated as well with incentives to take things early or latter again overlong term it all balances. The change can hide allot. In addition is the statement under the china price chart “In this quarter excess and off specification stocks accumulated during the start up phase of the plant were sold. Stock on hand at the end of the quarter consisted mainly of consignment stock” This is a good move. But they give no idea of; how much? When? Or what price? I am not going to go back and recalculate how much was there but my old tired memory says it was about 2Ktons. So this could make a major swing especially if all in December. Many have said Japan will take all they can get and pay a premium for the product. Under the sales chart is the following statement. “Lynas sold 60 tonnes of NdPr at spot price into the Chinese market during the quarter” Volume not much but why take this much lower price?More to come
My early post to this disappeared. Checked after I posted it, it was there, this AM gone. I doubt they will look into it but I have complained to yahoo.
I have to give credit to Amanda where it is due. She is better at telling the truth about bad news and putting hype on it than even NC. Much more subtle.
Again the Q report was snuck out in the dead of night. No press release. No Preannouncement. No CC. Are these things required? NO. But they are normal operating practice. This management team is afraid to take uncensored questions. I speculate this would put them in a position where they would have 3 choices. Say no comment in a nice way, Lie, Let out info they just do not want out.
The way this came out My guess is many traders in AU did not know about it . Volume is up at 24 M shares but I will wait till Friday to understand full in pact of release.
So now I have September and Decembers report open side by side. It is only by looking back that you can see how they actually did.
They had a great end of Q in September. This Q does not track the end of September. But not to worry they had a great December in spite of major ND PR solvent extraction problems! She did say cash flow would be poor next Q. Is this not part of the early Sojitz test. I wonder if it is part of the new one?
It is interesting how she made a big deal last Q of creating the table on page six which was an improvement. Now this Q they cut the table in half first on page 3 and put a bunch of stuff about china pricing in the middle second half page 4. So it is on different pages making it hard to analyze. Also we lost a line of info. It was the total line which now means we have to calculate total ourselves. Interesting.
I will post numbers in a different post.
2 Agree but will it have enough detail to be truly helpful
3 Agree everything is going to japan.
5 disagree. I do not see where they have any post processing capability, to make these products you talk about. Yes they can tune up current process to meet spec maybe go beyond original spec a little but for right now what you see is what you get. Nd Pr which would be the most valuable is over 2 Kt PA that is about 5 million pounds. They had a research project with the university in Tasmania to develop this process. The equipment to do this is very expensive even to handle much smaller qualities. Google “Lynas Tasmania” Look at the cost to develop a 100 ton pilot plant at Bell Bay less than 5% of the Nd Pr output. No mention of this since Environmental permits were applied for. I assume it was put on hold or canceled for lack of funding. Google finds this data quickly. It took a long time to load, be patient. It might be faster now that I have accessed it. Articles are small.
I agree with the need to do this. It would help allot. Lynas agrees with you because they started Bell Bay. My guess is the Japanese will develop the preprocessing needed to use current output and continue to pay below market prices. From Japan management perspective, given Lynas’s track record, much safer and less expensive to do it in Japan. Then they will have it to use on anybody's low grade material. I doubt they will succeed but GWM is still trying to build a plant. Now it is a two phase project. First phase has an output similar to Lynas.
6 Strongly disagree.
One new one. Will they meet the March test? Darn if I know too little detail on what test is.