Even people expert in an industry can be blinded by the certainty of their own judgements. My most painful speculative loss was ATPG, killed by the BP spill (or maybe put out of its misery). One reason I was so convinced the company was going to make it was the CEO and an independent board member, who owned his own energy company, put millions into it after the spill. I figured they must know the score. They didn't, they had what I call "true believer" syndrome.
Ackman is badly infected with it. He's so convinced he's correct that he made a fool of himself yesterday, the biggest bust since Portland passed on MJ for Sam Bowie. Any rational person would have looked at his presentation and said, yeah, you found problems, but it's not a death blow, don't promote it like it is. Maybe they did, but he has blinders on so thick he can't see. It brought him to tears, almost a kind of breakdown, kinda sad to see.
Well they should be for the moment, look at the yield they're trading at! This morning I reduced my positions in both (before BBEP turned down thankfully), and plowed that money into ARP. And I didn't need to read a chart to make that call. Of course, there's no accounting for the market, who knows, VNR could move up another buck or two. For some reason there are lots of buyers, even after two rotten, and very atypical quarters.
Absolutely, those who can't spend the time to do this right should not play. Meanwhile, let the big boys take hundred million dollar positions in "momentum" stocks and scrap it out on TV. Sometimes they're right and get appointed as geniuses, and the other half of the time they lose fortunes.
I hate to say this because it sounds so douchey . . . aside from speculative bets, and I've had some total zeroes in that category . . . I haven't suffered a loss on a serious position, ever. I caught the 2001 dip after 9-11, I bought in big during 2002, getting things like Micky D in the teens, I was all cash (almost) in 2008 and bought all the MLP's, REIT's and preferreds that got slaughtered in early 2009. I even played garbage like EROC correctly, got out at the highs, bought most of the lows.
So, anoint me? No, the point is, little retail weevils like us can talk on these chat boards, do our research and recognize when something's on sale. And, we can see the warning signs when something's gone amiss. We argue and scrap a lot, do some name calling, but in the process we discover what we need to know. It's not that hard, I'm no genius, and I'm not alone, I know it.
Welcome, I am a recent buyer, and have been increasing my position as the others ran up, selling parts of my MEMP holdings for example, and just today I reduced VNR and BBEP to buy more here. ARP is the bargain of the space, and there's no fundamental reason for it.
Crammer also said, before Ackerman's disaster, "I reiterate, Ackman has decided to put $HLF out of business so he will. It is not that hard to do that if you have a ton of money." Nice. Love it when he looks stupid.
I really don't think the teens are in play anymore, barring some disaster of course. The upstreams have recovered since the LINE controversy, some hitting post-financial crisis highs.
How high can BBEP go? I see zero reason why VNR should trade at a lower yield, especially after two miserable coverage quarters, but it's at 8%. Price this a point higher and you're talking $25. But, point taken, we're close.
Is there any reason to sell? Not if you're holding for cash flow in a core position. If you bought units during 2013 for a trade, yeah, selling this and switching to ARP, which has not recovered (and there's zero reason for that either), that makes sense. Chutes and ladders . . . or ladders and ladders, hopefully.
I am a bit heavy here, as I wanted to be, but due to some recent swaps out of MEMP and VNR, ARP is a large position too. Given I have a nice bet on BBEP calls running, I think I will cut back a bit on the units and increase my position in ARP units and calls. I wasn't planning on doing so, but at $23, and given ARP pays 15% more money for the same dollar . . .
Boy, I don't know, even for a thinly traded security like this, for an article on SA to have ANY discernible effect on the markets . . . doubt it. SA is pretty much viewed as a joke due to the amateur hour idiocy routinely on display there.
I don't. Losing money would be buying what looks like a dip here, only to be side swiped by management re-instating the distribution below a dime or something and seeing this drop to the $3's. THAT's where I want to buy it, but the prospects are dimming. At least it didn't run up today, and I feared it might.
Well, Cooper was super bullish on blue chips before the worst stock market crash since the great depression, so let's not anoint him. In this case, he happens to be correct, there's nothing "wrong" with ARP expect the market price is too low. These things correct, and we may be seeing it happening, in a slow melt-up. All the upstreams are up today, ARP is again trailing the pack, but sometimes that's how re-pricing happens, you don't even notice it at the time.
Actually, by saying " (including assets that may be acquired in potential acquisitions)", I bet they are signalling the Q3 distribution might be higher than I think. I don't know when we will find out, whether they'll give a number in the upcoming call, but I bet this jumps some tomorrow. I can't see taking a risk on buying, assuming they are going to reinstate at 12 or 15 cents, so . . . as a trade, this may be the end.
Yeah, I think it was .83. I'm sure they'll cover for the year, I understand there were some "factors" in those quarters, but the market is being unaccountably forgiving here, and I don't really understand why. And, I'm afraid it won't last, so after running some numbers, I'm going to sell about a third of what I have left and buy more ARP, play some chutes and ladders.
I own zero midstreams at this point, they all ran up so high, or were bought out in the case of Capano, that I couldn't justify holding them any further, not when there were relative bargains in the upstream space. There's obviously a perception that pipelines and midstreams are less risky, but tell that to BWP unit holders! Upstreams can hedge out for years, and are guaranteed to sell everything they lift. But if your pipeline and processing plant is located in what turns out to be a dead zone, there are no options.
No Q2 distribution, of course. Q3, yes, but how much? No clue. So how will the market take this tomorrow? This climb out of the mid $4's has kind of wrecked the optimum vulture play here, I had hoped for a long, slow decay followed by a washout when they announced a nickel, or a dime. If it crashes tomorrow (not sure why it would), that's not great, because buying it before the distribution announcement is too darn risky. If it jumps, that's not good either, because it establishes a higher plateau. I'm starting to fidget on my branch, I may have to take off and look for another victim.
Well, that's one thing about the future you can predict . . . Yahee will mess up. I love how they re-arranged the videos on the home page, ditching the show titles so you couldn't even find Aaron Task or Jeff Macke. I'm not even sure they use their own product.
Well, dude, that did not happen! Kevin hit a good one with LINE last year, assuming his clients covered in the $20's of course, but since then he's batting zero. You know how you can tell his influence is waning? You now have to type "Kevin Kai" in Google before his name comes up. It used to be "Kevin K" was sufficient.