They are in pain too, no doubt about it. I think you get a big bankruptcy like a CHK or MRO and they would call off the dogs. Then say "we will do this again without warning whenever we feel that we are losing share." This would keep the banks from blowing the bubble up again.
If gas would get to 3+ they could hedge the rest of 2017 and 2018. That would cement their making it through and then they would get the upside on Oil and NGLS price. The price will probably get there sometime this winter. That's what I would do. I doubt these guys will do it though. I mean just taking bankruptcy off the table makes this thing pop to $6 probably.
I calculate 2.8~ per mcfe in cost. That includes all operating income line items minus DDA & Impairments plus interest and maintenance capex. That is extremely low. I have yet to find anyone lower. Hopefully it will come down as LRE and EROC are integrated.
They are projected to be 20% oil for 4th quarter. So $37/6 gets you to $6.17 mcfe. On the gas side they get less than HH. I will do HH just to make it easier. $2.32 mcfe. 0.8 x 2.32 = 1.86, 0.2 x 6.17 = 1.23.
1.86+1.23 = 3.09 mcfe.
Their gas strip price isn't that good, but point is they are fine and this is way overdone. Not to mention the hedges.