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Quicksilver Resources, AŞ Message Board

cooldr.money 14 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Sep 20, 2007
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  • Reply to

    ICAHN IS NO ICON

    by cavanyc 7 hours ago
    cooldr.money cooldr.money 6 hours ago Flag

    RIG and CHK losing money right now, but not forever. I mean I guess you know more than one of the only men alive with a better long term record than Warren Buffett. You morons and your crowd think mentality will never make real money in the market.

  • At what point do they see the price of their bonds and stock and cut the distribution on purpose to drive the price down even more and start buying their debt and stock on the open market. You have somewhere around 300 million in cash flow after capex for the next 18 months without the mergers. You have a lot more than that after merge. They have 1.8 billion in bond debt. They could put a dent in that in a hurry buying debt at 60-70 cents on the dollar.

  • Reply to

    VNR 2016-17 projections at very low prices

    by herlod.glitch Aug 22, 2015 1:07 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Aug 22, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    From listening to the 2nd Qtr calls, the upstream company managers are all delusional idiots. Drilling like there is no tomorrow based on an IRR with a price that is not even close to reality. HK, XCO, and SD need to go broke. I actually think it is good for VNR to reach the bottom now and stay there for 6 months or so. Maybe we could even get CHK and WLL out at that point.

    The frackers have a flawed business model. They can't stop drilling because they have to feed the monster that is their decline curves. VNR on the other hand bought the good assets from the frackers that have a 6-8% annual decline curve with almost no drilling. I don't think the market realizes this.

  • Reply to

    The deal

    by dennisrfm Aug 17, 2015 9:20 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Aug 21, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Same thing. I just did it the other way. Point is LRE is undervalued relative to the price of VNR that you will be getting.

  • Reply to

    The deal

    by dennisrfm Aug 17, 2015 9:20 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Aug 21, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    I would think it is important to the survival of all three companies to do the deal and lower their costs. Don't know why they would change the ratio as they are already getting a premium. 3.17/0.55= 5.76. VNR = 6.03

  • cooldr.money by cooldr.money Aug 20, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Nat gas is up 2%. Vnr is down 6%. Time to make some money.

  • Reply to

    Everbody quit freaking out.

    by setgoals2054 Aug 19, 2015 11:56 AM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Aug 19, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    Weaklings should be close to all sold out of this one pretty soon. I calculate total cash cost per Mcfe at $2.88. That is slightly higher than their 2nd qtr. unhedged revenue per Mcfe. When the mergers go through, they get much oilier and their unhedged revenue per Mcfe will exceed cash cost by a wide margin.

    Futhermore, sometime between now and 2017, oil and gas prices will likely go up significantly. They may only stay up for a month, but I trust this management will hedge 2017 to stay at the current distribution when that does happen. Look at the 2nd qtr call, they were able to hedge some NGLs in one of the worst qtrs. the industry is likely to have.

  • Reply to

    Encouragement to fellow longs . . .

    by aurelius01 Aug 18, 2015 12:09 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Aug 18, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    It's the biggest publically traded copper company in the world. It is not going bankrupt. It could experience a lot of dilution at the very worst.

    This board reminds me of the GE board in 2009 when it was in the 6-7 dollar range. These situations are when you have the chance to make serious money. Buy fcx once a month for the same amount of money and stop looking at the doomsday financial news articles.

  • Reply to

    Come Back Boys and Girls its Time to Buy

    by gdelv45 Jul 20, 2015 3:35 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Aug 14, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Pretty smart there. No wash sale. I like it.

  • Reply to

    What is Book Value here?

    by hohoo69 Jul 30, 2015 12:25 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Jul 31, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    I think Tangible book was around $25 last time I calculated in the 1st qtr. Should be slightly higher now. They will have some write downs next time they calculate but will still be in the 20s.

  • Reply to

    Real chances of getting to $3

    by eejjww36 Jul 22, 2015 1:52 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Jul 27, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    With Walter, Arch, and Alpha filing chapter 11 shortly and China slowing as America is ramping. Does Tck not turn the tables a little on the Australian producers?

  • Reply to

    it went to $3.45..I am looking at that point

    by eejjww36 Jul 17, 2015 12:53 PM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Jul 17, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    in 09. 2nd worst market ever. it is already completely oversold. 25 book value. every met coal producer in North America is going to file chapter 11 but them. This is a buy for the ages. People have lost their dang mind.

  • cooldr.money by cooldr.money Jul 9, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    So BXLT is supposed to have 6 billion~ in revenue for the year. Margins before split were like 28% I think. They have more of the debt load, dissynergies, etc. We will say 25% for BXLT.

    6,000,000,000 x 0.25 = 1,500,000,000

    550,000,000~ shares outstanding for old BAX. 1 for 1 but BAX kept 20% stake which implies dilution.
    550,000,000 x 1.20 = 660,000,000 shares BXLT

    1,500,000,000 / 660,000,000 = 2.27 EPS

    30 / 2.27 = 13.2 P/E. BXLT seems to be a steal. Growing faster than BAX and a much lower multiple. Someone please explain why I am wrong.

  • Reply to

    my BXLT shreds are in my account

    by sarge198502 Jul 1, 2015 8:54 AM
    cooldr.money cooldr.money Jul 1, 2015 9:38 AM Flag

    I use Scottrade and do not have BXLT shares yet. This is starting to #$%$ me off.

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