RIG and CHK losing money right now, but not forever. I mean I guess you know more than one of the only men alive with a better long term record than Warren Buffett. You morons and your crowd think mentality will never make real money in the market.
At what point do they see the price of their bonds and stock and cut the distribution on purpose to drive the price down even more and start buying their debt and stock on the open market. You have somewhere around 300 million in cash flow after capex for the next 18 months without the mergers. You have a lot more than that after merge. They have 1.8 billion in bond debt. They could put a dent in that in a hurry buying debt at 60-70 cents on the dollar.
From listening to the 2nd Qtr calls, the upstream company managers are all delusional idiots. Drilling like there is no tomorrow based on an IRR with a price that is not even close to reality. HK, XCO, and SD need to go broke. I actually think it is good for VNR to reach the bottom now and stay there for 6 months or so. Maybe we could even get CHK and WLL out at that point.
The frackers have a flawed business model. They can't stop drilling because they have to feed the monster that is their decline curves. VNR on the other hand bought the good assets from the frackers that have a 6-8% annual decline curve with almost no drilling. I don't think the market realizes this.
I would think it is important to the survival of all three companies to do the deal and lower their costs. Don't know why they would change the ratio as they are already getting a premium. 3.17/0.55= 5.76. VNR = 6.03
Weaklings should be close to all sold out of this one pretty soon. I calculate total cash cost per Mcfe at $2.88. That is slightly higher than their 2nd qtr. unhedged revenue per Mcfe. When the mergers go through, they get much oilier and their unhedged revenue per Mcfe will exceed cash cost by a wide margin.
Futhermore, sometime between now and 2017, oil and gas prices will likely go up significantly. They may only stay up for a month, but I trust this management will hedge 2017 to stay at the current distribution when that does happen. Look at the 2nd qtr call, they were able to hedge some NGLs in one of the worst qtrs. the industry is likely to have.
It's the biggest publically traded copper company in the world. It is not going bankrupt. It could experience a lot of dilution at the very worst.
This board reminds me of the GE board in 2009 when it was in the 6-7 dollar range. These situations are when you have the chance to make serious money. Buy fcx once a month for the same amount of money and stop looking at the doomsday financial news articles.
I think Tangible book was around $25 last time I calculated in the 1st qtr. Should be slightly higher now. They will have some write downs next time they calculate but will still be in the 20s.
With Walter, Arch, and Alpha filing chapter 11 shortly and China slowing as America is ramping. Does Tck not turn the tables a little on the Australian producers?
in 09. 2nd worst market ever. it is already completely oversold. 25 book value. every met coal producer in North America is going to file chapter 11 but them. This is a buy for the ages. People have lost their dang mind.
So BXLT is supposed to have 6 billion~ in revenue for the year. Margins before split were like 28% I think. They have more of the debt load, dissynergies, etc. We will say 25% for BXLT.
6,000,000,000 x 0.25 = 1,500,000,000
550,000,000~ shares outstanding for old BAX. 1 for 1 but BAX kept 20% stake which implies dilution.
550,000,000 x 1.20 = 660,000,000 shares BXLT
1,500,000,000 / 660,000,000 = 2.27 EPS
30 / 2.27 = 13.2 P/E. BXLT seems to be a steal. Growing faster than BAX and a much lower multiple. Someone please explain why I am wrong.