If you still don't know about HFT, offering each 100 share block tad lower than the bid, you haven't learnt anything about market. If it really negative news, it would be trading in millions.
Having said that, lack of positive news is going to keep the stock at the mercy of HFT and Hedgies.
For next two and half months, this will be a dead fish. It will be subjected to market swings and quite possibly end up in high $4s. I am stuck so I am forgetting it till mid 2015, until then don't expect significant movement and forget $9s.
If you listened to the CC, everything in EU will pick up after October and will be 6-8 months before actual sales and income start coming.
Unless there is a big adaptation in the US and sales increase dramatically, the PPS will languish in $5-6 range.
They need to put some good solid news with clinical bench marks, new "blow your heads off" molecule that is next 'wow' drug, will bring back some enthusiasm.
It has a very good earnings potential, but is critically impacted by October 2013 events and it could take till mid 2015 to bring back to some good levels.
So, play as a Day trading stock and if it advances for two days and 20-30% sell, and buy again on dips....
But build your position by October because you will see a nice pop of 20-30% again.
Most will happen in early next year or later. Real revenue won't come till the mid 2015. Till October, it will be subjected exceptional swings and market manipulation. EMA and new molecule are the key, for now.
It takes a while to go back to $8s.
Disclaimer: I don't own this stock nor plan to establish any position whatsoever, no matter what the price is. I just want to warn those who thinks now the "stock is cheap". It is falling for a reason will continue to do so.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I will be shocked if this stock doesn't go back to teens, or lower than IPO price in a month or so. Wait for the restrictions to expire and more stock flood the market. Right now, insiders and underwriters are desperately trying to hold the price by carefully regulating the volume, but having hard time doing. You can only pump the stock so much.
Get out before you totally burn and reduce to ashes.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Please read my earlier post, when I bailed out on the spike due to a clinical trial report. It went up to $4.97. I told you that it is a pump and dump .Why do you think it is down almost 25% with a positive news? It is being played by the MMs. Be very careful.
I would wait for the down trend to continue to low to mid $3 and then reverse with a positive news. Since it is low float, you will see same spike as Puma, if it really has a license or other new molecule or partnership. But be very careful.
I will rather load up on ARIA, which is holding very strong despite market sell-off around $6. It is sure play in coming months...
It won't surprise me if those 20,000+ options expire worthless (which equals to 2 million shares), when you can make a killing by shorting $20+ million (happened last week).... just do the math....
So, don't fall for these short term fluctuations but buy with a strategy, not based on what someone says on a website or new website (where they are totally biased, and either doing it to help a hedge fund or their own short positions).
It is far cheaper to sell some options and ready to lose money, when you can pump, dump and short to make a killing. That is what happened last week.
Ariad has to demonstrate reduced SAE, more efficacy at lower doses, some promise in other cancers (than existing pipeline of the big pharma) for the buyout to become reality. It is not possible until EU reinstates without restrictions.
It has value, but you need patience. Or you know how to time the market to take advantage of fluctuations caused by 'market makers'. Otherwise, don't play this stock, get out and play bingo. If you are greedy and want to flip for a big profit with few weeks of playing, you sure will lose shirt. I don't expect it to go to $20 without any one of the above mentioned events officially announces (not on Twitter, or London Mail or Daily Mail, or Bi-weekly newsletter or Seeking Alpha or Zacks or any other #$%$ sources').
People are anticipating good news in earning call. Some hope of buyout (unlikely) but a partnership and expansion in other diseases and market areas and new molecule are possible.
By now, half the shorts should have covered, possibly all those who shorted from $6s should have covered by now. Remaining will try to wait out by shorting more.
The game of hedgies and HFTs keeps going until and official news comes out. Then it will be a stampede to teens or another hammer to $4s. No one knows.
But the DD indicates, it will be in teens by late fall. Be watchful, but if you get greedy, you will be wiped out.
Volume since the spike from $5.27 is enough to cover more than 1/3rd shorts. 15% raise with that much short covering, imagine if there is a positive news after hours. It will go to double digits.
Something AH is for sure... someone knows something and covering pretty much all they can...
Don't be so quick. Watch the tape...
It is hedgies playing HFT game... short covering for some. If no credible news comes, out it will run out of steam and will quickly back to mid $5s. Yes, I love the pop and it is a good stock.
But don't be super excited.
Puma (PBYI) is not an every day occurrence. So, don't associate to different scenario and hope something similar for ARIAD. You need patience and one day you will be rewarded.
When the time comes, Denner and Blackrock will make sure the shorts won't even have underpants left on them.... I don't expect PUMA like jump, but 100-150% with the correct positive news is very much possible.
Since you were sitting opposite to Harvey, you should have talked him into accepting the offer of $20.01.
July 19th puts are supposed to push this below $4. Did you hear any negative news that need to push this from $4.97 to $4.37 in couple of days? No, but why did it drop? In addition to down market, it is again being manipulated....
Didn't see this episode before: Euro woes, Iraq owes.... We dealt with severe issues with potential Italian default, Greece issues, which are mountains compared to the 'over hyped' Portugal's owes.... At one point we were scared by cessation of some Spanish regions (Catalina).
So, current market 'news making' is to book some profits, readjust portfolios, consolidate positions/options. As soon as it is done, you don't hear about ISIS taking the world, Portugal or anything else. Suddenly all problems disappear until they again want to do this all over again.
If you really want to get good idea of investing, media and noise, read Talib's 'Fooled by Randomness'. This stock went from $9 to $6 without any 'new clinical mis-steps or bad news'. It even raised $300 million without immediate impact on current share holders (2-3 years down the road).
So, if don't get it even now, then you probably shouldn't be investing...
Should be due tomorrow...
3.3.2. Ponatinib - ICLUSIG (CAP)
Review of the benefit-risk balance following notification by the European Commission of a
referral under Article 20(8) of Regulation (EC) No 726/2004, based on pharmacovigilance data
Status: for discussion and agreement of a recommendation to CHMP
PRAC Rapporteur: Rafe Suvarna (UK)
PRAC Co-Rapporteur: Ulla Wändel Liminga (SE)
Procedure number(s): EMEA/H/C/002695/A-20/0003
MAH(s): Ariad Pharma Ltd
For adoption: PRAC AR, PRAC recommendation
It is market gyrations... IBB is down, almost all BIO is down....
BIO is one of the most manipulated and highly volatile sector due to the nature of the 'highly regulated' sector....
It is still 1.8 million shares, less than daily average volume but the MMs are clearly running the show, irrespective of fundamentals. HFT is making bets and algorithms are executing the trades, based on volume, market. Every share is down...
Camtek is up something like 18% yesterday and down 14% today. Do you see any sensible reason other than market manipulation... no
So, hang tight and wait for EMA decision, new molecule and increased revenue etc. It got hammered from $9s without any negative news.... short selling at its best...
Day is not far for those shorties to be caught with their pants down...
This is a trap to take it up and bring down for July 19th PUT options and in general MM play.
A short day, option expiry, long week end.... perfect MM play without any big news.....
Hope I am wrong... but I am out and will buy again for $4. For a while this will hang around in this area....
It is a trap. This happened before. Short week, short trading session... and July 19th PUT calls tell all. It will be back to $4s in next week or so.
I am out and will buy again at $4...