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Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

cosmicgene 26 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Oct 9, 2013
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  • People are anticipating good news in earning call. Some hope of buyout (unlikely) but a partnership and expansion in other diseases and market areas and new molecule are possible.

    By now, half the shorts should have covered, possibly all those who shorted from $6s should have covered by now. Remaining will try to wait out by shorting more.

    The game of hedgies and HFTs keeps going until and official news comes out. Then it will be a stampede to teens or another hammer to $4s. No one knows.

    But the DD indicates, it will be in teens by late fall. Be watchful, but if you get greedy, you will be wiped out.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cosmicgene by cosmicgene Jul 23, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Volume since the spike from $5.27 is enough to cover more than 1/3rd shorts. 15% raise with that much short covering, imagine if there is a positive news after hours. It will go to double digits.

    Something AH is for sure... someone knows something and covering pretty much all they can...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cosmicgene by cosmicgene Jul 23, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Don't be so quick. Watch the tape...
    It is hedgies playing HFT game... short covering for some. If no credible news comes, out it will run out of steam and will quickly back to mid $5s. Yes, I love the pop and it is a good stock.
    But don't be super excited.

    Puma (PBYI) is not an every day occurrence. So, don't associate to different scenario and hope something similar for ARIAD. You need patience and one day you will be rewarded.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • When the time comes, Denner and Blackrock will make sure the shorts won't even have underpants left on them.... I don't expect PUMA like jump, but 100-150% with the correct positive news is very much possible.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cosmicgene cosmicgene Jul 10, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Since you were sitting opposite to Harvey, you should have talked him into accepting the offer of $20.01.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • July 19th puts are supposed to push this below $4. Did you hear any negative news that need to push this from $4.97 to $4.37 in couple of days? No, but why did it drop? In addition to down market, it is again being manipulated....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • cosmicgene by cosmicgene Jul 10, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    Didn't see this episode before: Euro woes, Iraq owes.... We dealt with severe issues with potential Italian default, Greece issues, which are mountains compared to the 'over hyped' Portugal's owes.... At one point we were scared by cessation of some Spanish regions (Catalina).

    So, current market 'news making' is to book some profits, readjust portfolios, consolidate positions/options. As soon as it is done, you don't hear about ISIS taking the world, Portugal or anything else. Suddenly all problems disappear until they again want to do this all over again.

    If you really want to get good idea of investing, media and noise, read Talib's 'Fooled by Randomness'. This stock went from $9 to $6 without any 'new clinical mis-steps or bad news'. It even raised $300 million without immediate impact on current share holders (2-3 years down the road).

    So, if don't get it even now, then you probably shouldn't be investing...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cosmicgene by cosmicgene Jul 9, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    Should be due tomorrow...

    3.3.2. Ponatinib - ICLUSIG (CAP)

     Review of the benefit-risk balance following notification by the European Commission of a
    referral under Article 20(8) of Regulation (EC) No 726/2004, based on pharmacovigilance data
    Status: for discussion and agreement of a recommendation to CHMP

    Regulatory details:
    PRAC Rapporteur: Rafe Suvarna (UK)
    PRAC Co-Rapporteur: Ulla Wändel Liminga (SE)

    Administrative details:
    Procedure number(s): EMEA/H/C/002695/A-20/0003

    MAH(s): Ariad Pharma Ltd

    Documents:
    For adoption: PRAC AR, PRAC recommendation

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    EMA news most likely leaked

    by zenz304 Jul 8, 2014 9:56 AM
    cosmicgene cosmicgene Jul 8, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    It is market gyrations... IBB is down, almost all BIO is down....

    BIO is one of the most manipulated and highly volatile sector due to the nature of the 'highly regulated' sector....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • It is still 1.8 million shares, less than daily average volume but the MMs are clearly running the show, irrespective of fundamentals. HFT is making bets and algorithms are executing the trades, based on volume, market. Every share is down...
    Camtek is up something like 18% yesterday and down 14% today. Do you see any sensible reason other than market manipulation... no
    So, hang tight and wait for EMA decision, new molecule and increased revenue etc. It got hammered from $9s without any negative news.... short selling at its best...
    Day is not far for those shorties to be caught with their pants down...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cosmicgene by cosmicgene Jul 3, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    This is a trap to take it up and bring down for July 19th PUT options and in general MM play.
    A short day, option expiry, long week end.... perfect MM play without any big news.....

    Hope I am wrong... but I am out and will buy again for $4. For a while this will hang around in this area....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    News

    by ziddox Jul 3, 2014 12:16 PM
    cosmicgene cosmicgene Jul 3, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    It is a trap. This happened before. Short week, short trading session... and July 19th PUT calls tell all. It will be back to $4s in next week or so.

    I am out and will buy again at $4...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • cosmicgene by cosmicgene Jul 3, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Put options out number call options for strike price of 4 for July 19th. I expect the price to run up as before and then crashed close to 4 or less than 4 by that date. It is way above 1, hence bearish.

    Haven't we seen this happened before, going up to $4.5 and coming back to $4.....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • cosmicgene cosmicgene Jun 27, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    They are settling trades that are rushed at the closing bell. Not actual trades placed after the bell. See, the trades canceled and revised for the same block. It is all option covering at the closing and being resolved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cosmicgene by cosmicgene Jun 27, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    250,000 block filled at 12:24 and 200,000 at 1:06 EST. MMs are accumulating for July run up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cosmicgene cosmicgene Jun 20, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    Don't get too excited. It is a settlement of a trade that happened during the day.

    But definitely something is brewing....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2 million shares at closing bell... whats up

    by cosmicgene Jun 20, 2014 4:02 PM
    cosmicgene cosmicgene Jun 20, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    You have to dig through pages of trades on nasdaq (after the fact, not while happening). You can see ask/bid volumes but I don't think it is disclosed who is asking for how many share except that 'people' wanted 3 million shares at $6.67. Is this one MM asking for all 3 million or 10,000 people each asking for 30,000 is hard to predict. Same goes for 'ask' orders....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2 million shares at closing bell... whats up

    by cosmicgene Jun 20, 2014 4:02 PM
    cosmicgene cosmicgene Jun 20, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    It won't be one 3 million block. Several large blocks some in 200,000 blocks, during last one minute... you can see it on nasdaq, realtime quotes graph... the whole day graph is non-existent compared to the last minute trade volume.
    It is kind of a clue that something is happening and price didn't go down....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2 million shares at closing bell... whats up

    by cosmicgene Jun 20, 2014 4:02 PM
    cosmicgene cosmicgene Jun 20, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    Sorry, it is infact 2.9 million at closing bell.... someone surely is covering their basis... if I am shortie, I will not sleep during the weekend.... Nice momentum...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 2 million shares traded at closing bell.... something is cooking..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ARIA
6.183+0.310(+5.27%)Jul 24 4:00 PMEDT

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