Although now up 42% in a week, Rockys' plucky, pertinacious, parakeet has calculated a near term trading price target of $1.49. His frequent concinnous catoptromancy, well versed in investor strephosymbolia, parallels cryptaesthesia. Fear is turning to greed, RSI 54
NM and its brethren were the MOST advanced percentage gainers on the entire NYSE.
The 6MM volume off a capitulated/oversold RSI 26 low speaks otherwise. Don't forget the NM board also has a 25M buyback authorized and have stated repurchase of shares is in the companys best interest to provide shareholder value.
Mize, Rocky whispered to me that he thinks you are singing a new tune, lol. Its not really about the cash, NM could sell some ships to DSX or whoever would pay the most. Fear and Greed. Rockys' parakeet chirps that maximum profit is right smack dab in the middle.
Todays earnings beat and high beta PPS pop is what I was refering to in regards to risk/reward due to managment efficiancy and the ability to lower costs that Mr Market is overlooking, in relation to the peer group. NM is much better positioned than most of the others, with the smaller ships, diversity of income streams and over 80%/34% FY'16/'17 charters locked in. Hope some of you guys got shares below .60 during yesterdays high vol/RSI 26 capitulation! Cheers!
Patience is the mother of profit. Diversity is key. Navios Maritime Holdings (NM) is very diverse in terms of their exposure. They own 40 dry bulk ships: 13 Capesize, 12 Panamax, and 15 Handymax. It has exposure to both dry bulk and container ships through 20% owner interest in NMM. It also has 46.2% interest in Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), which has the majority interest in Navios Maritime Midstream Partners (NAP). NM also owns a 63.8% stake in Navios SA Logistics, which focuses on logistics.With a weak market, when shipping demand is weak, charterers prefer smaller vessels such as Handymax or Ultramax, of which NM has high percentage. Crude oil shipping by tanker is currently depressed also, but for how long? I think the market is missing the diversity of the income/revenue stream, the skill of managment, the efficiency that NM provides, and the discounted value that NM shares represent as a function of market share. Never forget this is a cycle, and where we are in the cycle. I remember Corning (GLW)
What are you guys doing? This is severely oversold and represents a strong buy on all valuation metrics. The time to sell is long gone. This is priced like Shipping by sea and seaborne trade is kaput. Anything below $1 is way too cheap and is a strong buy based on risk/reward metics and a 12month return of a normal market for shipping. Rockys parakeet has pecked the buy button at .74 Ruffled be his feathers, not.
Rockys parakeet pecked on the sell button, I am out at $1.90 for a 70% 20-day gain. Rocky says too far too fast, RSI is 78 eight white candles out of nine, medium volumne, and believe pullback in the cards. Are you a trader or a 'vestor?
Overall, I am an optimist. Oil is cheap(er) than normal, putting cash in the ave consumers pocket, estimates are for this to be $200-300per month. Int rates are low, meaning encouragement to borrow/spend if credit allows. Inflation currently tame, FOMC is dovish, although tightening is inevitable. Bond market/bank intrest rates bad, so equitys still where to be.
With hedgie selloff/panic sell after div cut, and now Low volume on one-trick pony GSL I still view as risk/reward skewed to upside, but expect price fluctuations as beta is high. Most buys are small indicating retail trades, or the small investor like you and me. The really big money will be made, if the deep pockets start to rebuy. Overall, I dont see much risk to the downside where I purchased ($1.12/sh), due to the ships valuation and locked in charters. Keep an eye and a comp chart open on Danos (DAC). Good luck!
I once had a reply to REAUX on an airline board, ""The propitious vicissitudes previously perspicaciously alluded to have not been forthcoming, and your breviloquent anagnorisis, much less quintessential renunciation, is also as yet, indubitably indiscernable."
They eventually went Bk, and this mantra could be alluded as a parallel in GSL although coming from Ian & Tom, lol. Rocky's parakeet says its a Div chasers torpedo.
Thanks. Whose yer daddy? The old school guys might remember the calls on WNR , CBK and TNK. You have to know if you are a trader or an "investor".
No sellers. What I see is that there are no longer any sellers. The drop to $2 from Heggies selling, and then the crash to $1 from no div announcement has floored the stock price. Charters are locked in and cash flow is stable, debt being paid down or saved for juicy distressed asset buys. This is a low float undervalued smallcap play that you buy here severly underpriced on almost every metric except total scrapping on the beaches of south africa. If any of the big boys start to rebuy this, it will pop hard to the upside and these low $1's are gone. My price target is $2.50 in less than 1 year, although as a trader, I may sell on a quick pop to protect capital if goes up too fast, lol. Remember, the intent is to make money, not lose it, Rocky says a bird in the hand is always better than two on his head (there are no bushes in his aquarium)
Where is the Feckless 'folio flopping Tarpon hedge fund div chasing foolios? Hows that 6.5% div yield working for you? Hows that $4.60 price you were slobbering about? Did you call investor relations and complain, lol.
Im Out at $3.71/$3.74 today
by coursonc•Apr 4, 2012 8:41 PM.
coursonc•Aug 25, 2012 12:09 AMRemove
Just to remind Kales 'gator riding feckless 'folio fretters:
"But those who feel late to the party shouldn't exactly be fretting, either. Even if you bought shares at the close yesterday of $4.60, your annual dividend yield would be 6.5% at the $0.30 a year rate; 13% at the $0.60 a year level; and 20% at $0.92."
Is it flora or fauna, I am so confused, lol.
Maybe Tarpon phooie is chop suey.
Thanks. With the dump after the div cut, the oversold conditions/low float and low price/book with debt being paid down/ growth contemplated by acquisition of distressed assets, locked in charters providing steady cash to ride it out and wait for the div chasers to come back risk-reward is skewed to reward.. Where is the Tarpon folio feckless foolios?
Rocky is calling bottom here at the low $1 level. Im in today at $1.10. You long term GSL'ers may remember me from way back years ago when Soros gave it away, lol. Rocky, being a well behaved pet rock, has been quiet and holding his breath all this time.