Just a guess here, but it looks like all the bad stuff on SLW might already be priced into the stock price at this level. Nothing significant coming out of the earnings and conference call could move the stock up if this is the case. Heck, even if we only get a C move up on that 21.38-22.80 range. Only thing is the light volume. That will tell us weather the move is for real or just a retracement. Might be worth the gamble Kaz.
Additionally, for the small / medium EW, we could still retrace 100% to 21.37 / 21.38 and keep that EW wave in tact as well.
As a side note, Wave 4's are the usual complex waves. Wave 2's are very rarely complex, although in can happen from time to time.
It would change the small / medium EW count, yes. However, The large count is still in tact. If you consider 19.23 - 27.14 as a larger Wave I of 3(of the Huge Wave V pattern), then the 78.6% retrace (78.6% typical and most often Wave 2 retrace) is 20.92. This is the number that I've been mentioning (in Mondays post again mentioned 20.92) here from time to time as a possible low before we move up hard. So, in the bigger picture, our EW count is still in tact.
You must mean 22.22 = 61.8% retrace. Think you have your EW tool upside down again Sharpie...lol. That 38.2% retrace was 22.43.
We are in or just finishing a small Wave 4 and will head down into Wave 5 at 22.07 in my humble opinion.
Thanks so much Kaz. Great Stuff! I appreciate you taking the time to elaborate. It's really good to know.
On a side note, Elliott Wave Analysis in conjunction with Fib ratios is still my Main Source (my bread & butter approach) for trading and it Works Great for me! It works for any individual stock or index fund too. Can apply to anything and very reliable. I understand that it's not for everyone, but between all of us on this board, I think we help each other to be really successful.
Thanks Kaz for that info / foresight. Can you tell me how you are able to see / discern that. Very Interested and helpful to reinforce my EW charts. Would love to know how you know...lol.
I expect the Wave ii 22.07 (maybe 22.05) to hit either today or tomorrow. Volume is really low too, so maybe we get it this morning. It's also very possible that we retrace 100% to 21.88. One more possibility that's been running around in the back of my mind is the 20.92 that I mentioned last month. I don't think we will get there, but just putting that back out there for everyone.
Decided that Caution is the better part of Valor and closed my short position a minute before the bell....lol. Will reacquire my long position at 22.07 ish. If this was your wave 4, then we should at least go down to 22.43 at a minimum. You guys have a great weekend.
LOL...I can tell you really dislike Puts. Last time you bugged out of your Puts really fast too...lol Better safe than sorry and best to stay with what you're comfortable with.
Smile, that was a total perfect EW five wave count. I see it as...
Large Wave 1 was from 21.37-22.69
Now we are working on Large Wave 3
We just finish Medium Wave I of III and currently in Medium Wave 2 (down).
So to sum up, we are in Medium W ii retrace of Large III.
In my estimation / opinion. The chart will tell who is correct. If you're right, then we will see a long long horizontal flat line (indicating a Wave 4). If I'm correct, we will see a much quicker ABC type drop.
Just charted here and thinking we are looking at a Wave 2 retrace from price points 21.88-22.77. That being said, the typical retrace would most like be 22.07 (78.6%). Might even hit that this afternoon. Other targets would be below...
22.33 - 50% Retrace
22.22 - 61.8% Retrace
22.07 - 78.6% Retrace (and most likely)
21.88 - 100% Retrace
I'm looking to get out at 22.07, but will watch for a pattern of waves to confirm or adjust price point, but am pretty darn confident about the 22.07 target.
Any thoughts from you guys?
SLW is in a mini wave iv right now, which takes the longest to unfold in the EW 5 wave sequence. Looks like a long horizontal line (usually caused by profit taking). After this mini wave iv, we will head up to complete wave 5 at 22.77. Then head down in a larger W2.
LOL...that's funny. Yep, I show 22.77 as being the top of Wave v here. Probably hit that tomorrow sometime, thinking in the morning. Will sell there and reload on the ABC retrace that follows.
Yes, very well done Kaz. I have to agree with Sharpie here. Although, we might hit the 20.92 or possibly the 21.66 level in SLW, we are coming to the point where I think that Silver will move up to catch up with SLW. I'm keeping an eye on the volume to determine when either the final move down is complete or a strong volume up showing the new up direction in SLW. Hope you have continued success Kaz, just be careful here.
Sweet! Very glad the DT book is working out for you. My new one is on the way. I show that the 21.88 (this mornings low) is exactly 61.8% fib retrace from the 21.37-22.69. Is that what you meant?