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BB&T Corporation Message Board

cpa38 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2015 5:20 PM Member since: Mar 17, 2000
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  • Reply to

    13% Discount

    by dsouth7777 Apr 27, 2015 12:57 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Apr 29, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    Although I'm a CPA, that doesn't mean squat as it pertains to ROC issues in MLPs. My eyes glaze over just as easily as the next guy. And, I'd pull my hair out trying to understand this complex mess, if it hadn't all fallen out already.

    Thanks, I see that issue now in the FEI annual report. I like much better how CEN presents it though. CEN shows the incoming ROC as income in the Statement of Operations, then, just as quickly, nets it out. At least the number gets visibility and not buried in some footnote.

    So, with CEN:

    ROC + Net Investment Income = $15 M
    Cap Gains + options strategy = $15 M more
    Distributions = $20 M

    But with FEI:

    ROC + Net Investment Income = $46.5 M
    Cap Gains + options strategy = $30 M
    Distributions = $60 M

    They both look about equal to me in coverage on sourcing their dividend payments. Payments off their investments + Gains Booked is greater than distributions out to shareholders. CEN has more comfort there than FEI, but nothing to write home about.

    The second thing I always look at with closed-ends is how much cushion they have in the way of built in gains in their current portfolio. The more gains, the higher the probability of at least maintaining the current divy, if not boosting the divy in the future ... via booking gains, paying them out. Looks like FEI has CEN beat there ... 26% to 10%.

    So yeah Kel, I see your point about FEI being a decent buy here. Wonder why FEI has a higher discount to NAV than does most other Closed-End MLPs?

    Thanks for the heads up.

  • Reply to

    13% Discount

    by dsouth7777 Apr 27, 2015 12:57 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Apr 29, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Admitting there are some things about MLPs I've yet to grasp ... the FEI YE 10/31/2014 financials scare the heck out of me:

    Investment Income - Investment Expenses = Negative $2 M
    Booked $29 M in cap gains (including buy / write strategy)
    BUT, paid over $60 M in dividends.
    So, a little over 50% of every dollar you collected was just them giving you back your own money.

    You realize this about FEI, yes?

  • Reply to

    13% Discount

    by dsouth7777 Apr 27, 2015 12:57 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Apr 29, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    Kel - Why FEI, as opposed to CEN? just curious.

  • Buy rights at .43 and you're getting CEN at a 6.8% discount to post offering, fully diluted NAV. Of the 26 MLP closed-end funds, 14 of them sell at a better value than a 6.8% discount to NAV. CEN rights are still overvalued. Way, way overvalued. Stupid people are buying the rights here.

  • I'm clueless as to why people are paying so much for this stock, and the rights, at this stage of the offering. If you were to currently buy and exercise rights, you'd be getting the stock at about a 5% discount to Net Asset Value. This thing has sold at a 10% discount to NAV in the past. And, you can currently buy the closed-end fund KMF also at a 10% discount to NAV. Both CEN and KMF have very similar portfolios. So, why are people being so stupid in overpaying for CEN stock, and rights?

    The stock needs to be at around $16.80, rights at .31, to bring his thing in at a fair value of around 10% discount to NAV. Stop being stupid by overpaying for this piece of junk.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha article now posted

    by jbomchill Apr 8, 2015 3:33 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Apr 13, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Jeff - I clicked on your WSCI article five times. Spend the nickle wisely. :--)

  • Anyone going to participate in the rights offering? Best to get out of your stock now if not.

  • cpa38 cpa38 Apr 1, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    I just read the SA article on MVO about 30 minutes ago. It's been awhile since I modeled MVO, but I know enough about it to know that the SA article is making a legitimate case that MVO WAS grossly overvalued in the $14 - $17 range.

  • There is a very recent Seeking Alpha article by "The Forensic Accountant" that is responsible for today's drubbing of MVO (sister oil trust to VOC - another Michael Voss sponsored deal) ... down 25% on 15x normal daily volume as I type. What I found interesting though was that this same author wrote another piece a few weeks ago where he analyzed 15 oil trusts. He ranked VOC his #1 pick. Wish I could provide links to these articles, but in the wisdom of Yahoo, it's not permitted. Do a google search and I'm sure you'll find them.

  • The big seller showing 24 K shares on the ask a week ago, and pounding on it for days after, must still be leaning against the stock. The interesting thing about this is that if you check the NASDAQ website and look at ownership of WSCI, there are only 3 institutional owners that have 24 K or more shares: Raymond James @ 37 K shares, Renaissance Technologies @ 44.5 K shares and Barclays @ 108.9 K shares. One of those 3 must be exiting. When he finishes, WSCI should lift. $6 is too cheap for this stock. We should be in the low to mid 7s off these results.

  • cpa38 cpa38 Mar 24, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    Yep. I'll take .15, and another SA WSCI puff piece, on any day of the week that ends in "y".

    Perplexing. Wonder who the seller was that tried so darn hard to exit this thinly traded stock over the last week? He sure had me spooked, convinced me we were in for store for a lousy quarter. Yep Jeff, surprise, surprise.

  • cpa38 cpa38 Mar 24, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    Been around this company long enough to know this ... it's 4:30 pm EST, 3:30 pm CST, at WSCI CFO's office. If earnings were OK, they'd have been released by now. If they stink, they'll wait until after 6:30 pm est to release ... after closing time at their offices, so they don't have to field any phone calls. It's a sure bet we're looking at yet another quarter of results that stink up the joint.

  • Reply to

    The Offering

    by cpa38 Mar 17, 2015 9:24 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Mar 23, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    sell ASAP to get the best price on rights. IMHO.

  • Reply to

    The Offering

    by cpa38 Mar 17, 2015 9:24 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Mar 20, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Guess not. Oh well, thought I'd ask.

  • Reply to

    Help Jeff

    by wayne21044 Mar 19, 2015 1:08 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Mar 19, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    Yes, we need another puff piece on Seeking Alpha. Bring it.

  • Reply to

    Trade with the flow

    by cpa38 Mar 16, 2015 4:13 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Mar 18, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Discouraging. Someone wants out, badly. And the only conclusion I keep coming back to is that this person knows what's coming next week in the way of the earnings release. Once, just once, I'd like to see the SEC come in here and smack some WSCI people around for leaking insider info. Tired of seeing it happen here.

  • Reply to

    Trade with the flow

    by cpa38 Mar 16, 2015 4:13 PM
    cpa38 cpa38 Mar 18, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    No sooner than I post positive comments about the direction of stock price and volume just ahead of earnings next week - a massive number of shares come on the ask. Daily volume almost 3x avg now and 24 K shares to sell just popped up at $6. Someone caught wind of the results to be reported next week - and the signal suggests we're in for another lousy quarter. It's like rats leaving a sinking ship.

  • Anybody participating ?

  • In the weeks and days leading up to the earnings report, this small company has a habit of trading in the direction of the earnings. News out of this company always leaks. Always. Buyers get ahead of good reports. Sellers dump in front of poor reports. I've been in and out of this stock for almost a decade. This pattern never fails.

    Earnings are next Tuesday. Notice how volume and price are starting to move higher? Hmmm, wonder what that means?

  • cpa38 cpa38 Mar 16, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    The energy biz is peanuts for WSCI. They live, or they die by Polaris. Motorcycles. ATVs. Snowmobiles. 3 Wheelers. The real question you need to be asking is how much biz does Polaris do in exports, and how will the recent, massive ramp in the dollar impact those exports? I don't know the answer, but I do know that's the key question to ask.

    Beyond that, you should care about what the strength in the dollar does to WSCI's prospects to picking up future business, from anyone. Compared to a couple months ago, sourcing your parts from Europe, for example, is now 20% cheaper than buying them from US plants. Can that be good for WSCI? I don't think so.

    Having said all that though, WSCI will be fine, provided they do right by Polaris. The Polaris domestic sales growth should provide enough opportunity for WSCI to prosper.

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