CVR Partners, LP Message Board

The Department of Energy is likely to approve additional permits this year to companies looking to export liquefied natural gas more broadly, Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday.

Freeport LNG on Friday received DOE approval to export LNG to countries without a free trade agreement with the U.S.. Only one other project — Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass — has been granted that coveted permit.

Several facilities can export LNG to countries with a FTA, but that doesn’t include major LNG importers in Asia and Europe.

The Lake Charles, La., project, owned by subsidiaries of Southern Union Co., and Dominion’s Cove Point, Md., LNG terminal are next in line to be reviewed by the government for exports to non-FTA countries.

The DOE has offered no timeline for the permitting process, but Morgan Stanley said Lake Charles, Cove Point, and the Cameron LNG projects will likely be operating by 2020.

Assuming Freeport gets its final investment decision as expected late this year, that project, on Quintana Island, Texas, would start operations by 2017, Morgan Stanley said.

The U.S. is on track to export 3.6 billion cubic feet a day of LNG by 2018, with the first shipments sailing in late 2015 or early 2016, the investment bank said. By 2020, exports could reach between 6.5 bcf a day to 8.5 a day, it added.

That’s just a fraction, however, of a global LNG market estimated at around 32 bcf a day in 2011. In addition to the regulatory hurdles, LNG export wannabes have faced criticism from those who fear domestic natural-gas prices would skyrocket if LNG exports were not controlled.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

money for stupid company

Sentiment: Strong Sell

Freeport LNG got the Department of Energy’s green light to export domestic liquefied natural gas to countries without a free trade agreement with the U.S., only the second permit to allow for broader horizons.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Maybe it's the gloomy Seattle weather that has made investment manager Jim Hansen and his son and partner, Kevin, at Ravenna Capital Management immune to oil and gas industry hype about the supposed U.S. shale gas "revolution." More likely it is thorough research focused on making their clients money and keeping that money out of harm's way.

The Hansens are patient contrarian investors whose time horizon is generally several years. They can't help you if you want advice on next week's or next month's natural gas price. In fact, they're not sure anyone can reliably help you with that. So they focus on much longer-term trends, and they think they've spotted one in the U.S. natural gas market.

About a year ago when domestic natural gas prices hit levels reminiscent of the 1990s, they began to move their clients into natural gas related investments. Amid the media hype about cheap natural gas for decades, they saw a different reality.

They believed that high production decline rates in shale gas wells--which now provide about 40 percent of U.S. production--were combining with rapid reductions in the drilling of new wells in a way that would eventually cause falling production and sharply rising prices. They weren't exactly clear on the timing. But, with their patient strategy, they just needed to sit and wait for what they felt was the inevitable.

"We are long-term investors and include investments that allow us to get paid to wait," Jim Hansen said, referring to securities that generate regular payouts to holders.

A year after their call, they have seemingly been vindicated as natural gas rose from a low of $1.82 per thousand cubic feet in April 2012 to over $4 currently. Prices might dip again, Jim Hansen added, but for long-term investors the trend still looks good.

What clues led the Hansens to their contrarian views? Kevin explained in one phrase: Look at what the industry does, not what it says.

As result we should see higher nat gas price pretty soon. The biggest increase in demand since past year has been the utilities as they converted from coal to gas. The combination of this as well as higher usage from summer should reduce the 5 year average storage even more.

I also think the company should hire advisors to see a larger company might be interested in buying them out.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Beat on both earnings and rev. Positive free cash flow. Reduced all in cost. Excellent mgmt. Can't believe it is not taken over yet.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Dividend is good, growth is great.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Not about the current qtr. The market will give one or two additional qtrr to the new CEO and his team. After that point stock will either double or go below $2. I actually think the current CEO will succeed.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Once market realizes this and nay sayers move out , this should hit $30.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

It is easier and cheaper for US company to build it in mexico and then export nat gas with pipeline to mexico and convert to LNG. Am I missing something?

Might see 4.5 in few weeks.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Colder winter and hotter summer. In addition, improving economy and conversion of coal to nat gas for utilities (the biggest contributor so far)

Sentiment: Strong Buy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/natural-gas-gains-for-second-day-as-u-s-stockpiles-shrink.html

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Your stupidity is my gain.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

For the past 2-3 weeks withdraws were 60 bcf higher than last year. It is still pretty cold in north east.

Sentiment: Strong Buy