100% correct. He should run his own figures based upon the mid 20 royalty. Both him and kliff agree it works well. One would infer that other ts delivered drugs would work as well but they both provide zero value to the delivery.
This company is as tight as a drum. No one knows. Nobody knew about approval, no body knew about negotiations, and nobody new about an agreement. Same goes for if anything or whatever is happening now.
I highly doubt it. MNKD ability to catch the shorts off guard already have occurred with previous events. The events in which MNKD had some control were approval of Afrezza and the marketing agreement with SNY. It is beyond the pale to think that the price is engineered into the mid 3's to catch the shorts off guard. Short sellers and HFT manipulation has truly been in control of the stock price. The current price is simply a manifestation of the shorts taking advantage of overall weakness of the market. I cant explain why shorts have not begun to cover unless they are filled to the hilt with call options.
Is MNKD somehow orchestrating the pps with the slow rollout with SNY? I highly doubt it. If they were then you must reconcile Matts statement about his conversation with Al about taking care of the patient. Clearly that remark highlights that MNKD expected sales to be better at that point in time.
I do know that SNY has a plan and MNKD is fully brief into that plan. Keep in mind that by contract MNKD is not at liberty to market or promote the product publically. They signed off 100% of those rights to SNY. Do not expect MNKD to delineate anything in regard to Afrezza. They will be focused only upon TS developments, finance issues going forward and Afrezza only in a retrospective position after events have actually occur, as in no forward guidance.
Am I concerned that SNY may cut support for this product. Absolutely not. They know what they have and they know it superior to any prandial treatment out there. They will educate, elucidate and build a better label, while MNKD will increase production capabilities in line with the future. Hang in there.
Sept. 28. The fourth and largest is the only blood moon visible to all of Jerusalem. Coincides with the end of Shmita or loosely interpreted a time of reset. Read too much and it can keep you up at night.
I have seriously cutback on posting to the board, but for you I make an exception since you are a long standing long and someone who has shared many times with the board.
I believe everything is on target and exactly as SNY has wanted it to be. We will see increase in marketing starting in September and scripts should start to show this into the last quarter of the year. Has the roll out been perfect? Absolutely not as we experienced hiccup after hiccup early on. Those issues appear to be behind us now and tier 2 placement seems to be occurring on a frequent basis.
Yes, all longs would have liked to see Afrezza sales escalate out of the gate. Understandably, Sny is well aware that production capacity, and education is severely lacking for complete US rollout and even worse if they are contemplating ROW rollout shortly.
My biggest dilemma is which market I think SNY wants to bring Afrezza into. This drug is a natural for the type 1 prandial market. The roll into the type 2 market is more difficult due to cost and current algorithm of care for type 2 diabetes. The type 2 market will take considerable more time to get foothold, but that is precisely were SNY wants to push this drug. Recently I had a patient who I introduced Afrezza too. She consulted with her endo (actually the PA) who suggested to her that Afrezza is better used in type 2, she is currently on pump but receiving a CGM shortly (a perfect time to switch to basal, afrezza and CGM and dump the pump). Currently social media is inundated with type 1 showing success with Afrezza and in comparison very few type2. This is not what SNY ultimately wants.
One look at the 2 Time magazine ads and who do you see? Middle age to elderly patients used in the ads and immediately type 2 comes to mind. Hopefully the next ads will show youth and the advantage for the most educated diabetics, generally type 1.
Hang in there, Rome was not built in a day and either will the Afrezza franchise.
You are correct. The MNKD ymb is one of the most active boards on yahoo. It attracts both well informed investors willing to share and at the same time attracts its fair share of unethical bottom feeders looking to supplement their income at the expense of diabetics looking for better treatment choices.
If you do not engage they don't make income and they leave for better pastures. They are not here because they are short, unless they actually believe their own FUD. They are here to spread their masters FUD and supplement their income. Even untalented lawyers need to make a few extra bucks, and this board offers them a money tree.
Are you out of your mind? The single most important cause of acute mortality in the diabetic population is directly related hypoglycemia due to injected insulin therapy!
Is it possible that over several years that shorting entities have been successful with the association of Exubera to the brand name Afrezza. As many know the MNKD brand name has been through many derivations of spelling but similar phonetic pronunciations. (to date I still do not know what other brand name the FDA thought "afressa" would be confused with.) Anyway, I am sure that MNKD did many marketing studies to come up with a name that sets it apart from the competition. Could it be possible that the brand name currently used is damaged?
Should SNY/MNKD perhaps consider a name change as it is sold in other countries to bring the fight directly to the competition? I am not a marketing expert but would be interested to hear from those that are. I would propose names such as synovalog insulin or respiralog insulin to confirm its use as a mealtime insulin in line with the competition while perhaps establishing the primary difference in route of administration.
Since day 1 of MNKD. Al and company has been interested in the sales and marketing of Afrezza. After the second CRL they admitted that financially they could not bring the product to market and would require a partner. It has been quite sometime since I have read the redacted agreement but when I did my impression was that it was designed as a blueprint for some future event. A great deal of protection was given towards the manufacturing at Danbury, in fact until it was close to full capacity no European facility would be constructed. I also question who would actually own any manufacturing facility going forward. Is it possible that long term the plan was to have SNY assist in building the brand within the US as a 65% partner and once completed MNKD would assume manufacturing rights and sales rights to Afrezza within the US and SNY then would control manufacturing and sales rights for ROW receiving only royalty for ROW? It could explain the tepid marketing to date, holding off on any marketing push until EU approval at which time they gain greater reward for their efforts. Just a though.
With uninspiring Afrezza sales last week and the precipitous fall in both humolog and novalog sales continuing week over week, its only logical to determine that the need for insulin is also decreasing. I must have missed the news report that there was a cure or the expected global epidemic of diabetes was a hoax.
Or just perhaps the numbers are wrong?
We will find out in less than a week.
Commercial production on lines and 2 commenced in October of 2014 if I recall, not February 2015. Sales began in February and they had inventory in place for controlled launch. Over 50k sample packs were delivered to Sanofi in the first quarter.
MNKD will only release information if material. I do not think that the 12u line is material unless a milestone is given. WE were told about a month ago the line would be up an running and I suspect it is. When enough inventory is built up it will be released for sale. JMHO
Just goes to show the absurdity of the accuracy of script numbers. We will get a better understanding at the SNY CC. The IMS/Symphony data is only important from a trending perspective. Clearly the trend line of Afrezza is increasing at the same time Humalog and Novalog trends are decreasing.
Social media trending is another indicator. Clearly within the last several weeks more users have come online with there success stories.
Another trend worth pointing out is the increasing move as third party payers transition Afrezza from tier 3 to tier2.
Short position trending is yet another indicator. Over the last several weeks short postions have also been unwinding. I expect this will dramatically increase after debt issue is renegotiated, paid off or bought and will only be accentuated by the return of 9 million short shares from BOA.
The trend is your friend!
I doubt this is technosphere related. Technosphere is best suited for drugs needing to get into the alveolar portion of the respiratory system for rapid uptake and delivery. Drugs such as albuterol have direct effect upon the bronchiolar smooth muscle higher in the pulmonary system.
JMHO Itel you do some wonderful work!
So lets assume the EU central bank could bail them out. Who bears the burden of the bailout? It is ultimately transferred to the people of the EU, much like our own fed printing machine since 2008. Those cost have been transferred to the books of the Treasury which is more than happy to take the money from the people in the form of taxes or inflation. For those that blame just socialism as the root cause, you should also look to the central banking structure because it looks awfully socialistic in its design.
When you owe the bank a million dollars and you cannot pay, you have a problem. When you owe the bank a billion dollars and you cannot pay, the bank has a problem!
Its not about the loans, as much as it is about the interest on the loans. It comes down to payment of the interest to the central banks and IMF for perpetuity. They will ultimately restructure the loan with a lower interest payment and everyone will be happy. Keep in mind Italy, Portugal and a few other EU nation states are right behind Greece. If by some slim chance Greece is unwilling to negotiate and they do walk, they will suffer immeasurably at the hand of the bankers to show the other member states that non negotiation shall not be tolerated.
Yesterday, I had a consultation with an 18 y/o patient with type 1 diabetes. Mother was also in the consultation. I inquired if they have heard about the new inhaled insulin. They had not. The patient is on a pump and CGM. I told them that some patients have abandoned their pumps and are obtaining great results with Afrezza and CGM. The patients eyes were wide open and Mom got out her pad of paper and was furiously writing down any information I gave. I did show them AF blog and the results that both T1 and T2 patients were achieving. I suggested she speak with her endo when she has her next appointment.
My point being is that clearly patients are not necessarily informed and SNY can make gigantic strides during DTC. I was almost about to laugh at the intensity when Mom walked across the room to view the results of the blog. A1c decreasing 1-5%. She was in shock!
Flintlock smooth bore musket to modern rifled semi-automatic.
Battles may be lost but the war will be won!