For those who think that IMS SYM data is correct, then they must also assume the data on Humolog and Novolog and Apidra sales are also correct. Apidra sales have remained somewhat stable since Apidra is used primarily in pumps. Both Novolog and Humolog sales have decreased week over week the last couple of months. This is not a seasonal adjustment. Something is clearly happening to their sales.
One Friday in the not too distant future IMS & SYM will be reporting new scripts in the 1000's. I personally believe sales reported are about half of actual scripts. Combined that with Sanofi's own assistance programs (samples, Free Scripts, etc.) cloud actual reporting of new scripts until the cost is fully born by the patient or third party payors.
The single best way to know how scripts are going is to hear it from Sanofi in the next earnings call in just a few short weeks. We are certainly not out of the woods but we are certainly in a better position than the FUDsters would have you think.
Keep in the back of your mind the decreasing sales of injectable prandial insulins. diabetes has not been cured, the demographics are always increasing, while the side effects of glp's become increasingly scary. Combine this with many physicians are still not aware of Afrezza and the equation still equates to a blockbuster.
GLTA and Have a Great Independence Day. For all of problems this is still the best country in the world. Lets strive to keep it that way.
Management has historically stated that the margins on the product are better than analyst think. Insulin is the single most expensive component of Afrezza.
It sounds as Iif FDA approval of SNY insulin is imminent. Again increasing the margins on the product. I wonder if it would actually be cheaper to cancel the deal with AMPH and pay the penalty. Could SNY demand this of MNKD, would they pay the penalty?
Profitability will be reached quickly due to good margins on the product. This will be evident as sales increase. His statement was grossly taken out of context last presentation.
Last qtr there seemed to be a disconnect from reported sales and reported script numbers. My gut tells me actual Rx are about double that reported by symphony. We know about 1500 sales people were involved in training for Afrezza and today we find out from a post that SNY is hiring more salespeople presumable for Afrezza DTC and PCP. SNY is being very methodical in their approach to Afrezza with concentrations on education, initial Endo contacts, regulatory label changes and studies. They are fully aware of the potential for this drug and delivery. Before they go all out and risk their franchise it is prudent to take it slow and build upon a solid foundation. SNY will play rope-a-dope for perhaps another quarter, then watch for the knock-out.
All of your points are valid. You know it, I know it, MNKD knows it and SNY knows it. Keep in mind NVO knows it, LLY knows it, JNJ knows it as well as any BP or mid sized pharma involved in diabetes.
From SNY perspective Toujeo sales to replace Lantus is at best a wash. Afrezza is their future. SNY is worldwide and that is why Al choose them! Think big. If SNY stutters another player is waiting. If SNY were to lose Afrezza, they lose their franchise.
Keep the faith!
Peter with your decision to assist money brokers to keep a life saving drug from entering the market your gametes were just fused wrong.
Whats up with the lead picture showing the exubera bong? The lead picture should have been of dreamboat with a comparative picture with the bong later in the article.
The comment by one endo stating she was not sure how well Afrezza would work since Type 1's are sensitive and cannot dial in a dose like injectiables is going to look very stupid soon. The endo should bone up on learning about the primary insulin phase action upon the liver and why Afrezza stimulates this phase and injectable does not. Someone should ask her how much insulin does a healthy pancreas release at mealtime and does the healthy pancreas dial in the dose just like injectables.
Paradigm shift implies a new way to look at things as well!
A word of caution. It is possible to become hypo when on Afrezza if the basal therapy is not titrated appropriately. Al even qualifies his statement that the hypos experienced were mostly due to basal dosing. Most patients report decreasing basal needs due to changes in insulin sensitivity while on Afrezza. You can confirm with Sam but I think he would agree that changes must be made to basal after instituting Afrezza or at least followed closely.
It really appears things are falling into place for MNKD now. I think your 12 target is on the money in August after we see initial results from DTC.
I predict GS, in light of new facts and commitment by SNY upgrade MNKD to buy with a price target over 9/share short term. This will take place within 24 hours of the conference.
They will focus upon TS developments and SNY DTC ads about to begin.
Don't forget to use your thumbs!
You epitomize the overwhelming result on Afrezza that is overwhelmingly overlooked by the street. You are an intelligent diabetic who was optimized on injectable prandial therapy. The switch to Afrezza decreased your A1c, morbidity and mortality. You once were the best you could be, Afrezza just allowed you to be better!
I have previously commented upon the disruptive effect Afrezza will have in the treatment algorithm, lab and clinical analysis and biomedical treatment of diabetes. I just want to add one more. It may not happen rapidly but I sense from patient experiences that those patients physicians that will not prescribe Afrezza may be losing quite a few patients. It is so simple but the likes of AF just cant see it. Diabetes is a deficiency in the amount or action of insulin. It is best treated by giving insulin which best physiologically acts like the product released by our pancreas. The closest thing to that is Afrezza.
The analyst who spoke to physicians at ADA, confirms and reiterates his upgrade price target, while the smuck tries to reinterpret his data into a negative. Some analyst will loose their jobs over this...Al Mann
I think this was a sophisticated short exiting. The swings were too crazy, 30+ cents swings to keep the price from getting out of hand.
As always retail shorts will be the last to exit or forced to exit.