I agree --- LLC holders will get 1-1 shares at the price determined at the close tomorrow -- probably something a little below 24 --- AAMRQ holders share value will continue to change as the new AAL shares trade and change -- when they convert each Q you will get something - maybe $14/share [something more or less than 15] and it will be given to you in AAL shares at the market value at that time --- ie if you get 15/sh for your old AAMRQ and AAL is at 30 you will get 1/2 as many AAL shares in the conversion from AAMRQ
imo - you are right on AAMRQ don't matter re outcome -- the lower the better for buyers as long as LCC holds up --- LCC at $24 = AAMRQ at $15 -- LCC has dropped about 10% while AAMRQ has dropped about 30% from there -- Im thinking AAMRQ holders stand to gain significantly in this transaction --- they won't be getting 23/sh -- the value of each frozen AAMRQ sh will be determined by the ratio between 24 and 15 --- looking at LCC's price --- the $$ will be converted to new AAL shares at the market price each Q and issued
I also think there will be buyers for the new AAL shares Monday..
My take is you will get at least your 1000 shares replaced with AAL shares at varying prices as stated by apk
there is some potential that at the end of the 120days IF the newco AAL is valued higher than $24 you could actually get additional shares issued to you to true it up
the current/old shares would likely be trading closer $15 if it were not for many selling because they don't want to get caught up in the 120day distribution period ---- and it makes sense that these shares would trade at a discount due to some risk in there ultimate value
Im holding on because I think the merger will prove to be positive for the combined company - resulting in at least 25% gain in 120days from this point - but then - you never know what the future brings
this appears to be sale of stock from option exercises --- as their options near expiring they must exercise them - they either exercise/sell them or pony up considerable cash to exercise/buy them -- these guys have been buying shares at higher prices.....