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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

crazitjo 41 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Aug 18, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Every Morning When I Wake Up....

    by crazitjo Feb 9, 2016 6:19 PM

    Jake.....My first buy was in 2008, so I'm not going anywhere....I have lots of patience...I always have envisioned brighter days ahead.......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Every Morning When I Wake Up....

    by crazitjo Feb 9, 2016 6:19 PM

    Do you still have all the shares you had before ? I think we will eventually see a higher share price than we had at approval.....They'll get it worked out for us.....Just pick the number that works for you and sell when it hits.....GL and GO KERX...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Every Morning When I Wake Up....

    by crazitjo Feb 9, 2016 6:19 PM

    I didn't take anyone's life today but I did staple a guys eyelids to his forehead.....I had previously told him not to speak to me.....Again just kidding.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I look at the share price and think about taking my life, BUT after a cup of coffee and about half way thru my shower I realize how ridiculous it would be to take my life.......Instead I think why not just go to work and take someone else's life.......JUST KIDDING !!!!!!!!!!!.....I don't care what the price is today.......They keep knockin it down and I'll keep buying more F---'em......As Kenny says, "Don't count your money while your sittin at the table, there'll be time enough for counting when the dealings done".......GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • crazitjo crazitjo Feb 5, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    Thanks...u-b.....The Sales Reps are out here to get a foot in the door and introduce the drug then to get back with samples so they can try it on their patients and when you get enough people writing scripts and chatting with other Dr.'s about their patients reactions good or bad we will start getting a snowball effect on scripts...
    The mistake in the beginning was to focus on new patients which is only about 20% of the population instead of going after all patients...You have 460k patients and there is quite a churn with many patients switching between binders due to tolerability issues.....
    The thing I still believe is the fact that Baupost realized these errors and still invested a $125 mil more than they had already tied up in the company....My thinking is Baupost is in for the long term or it would have been a 2 or 3 year note....I'm hoping he's like me.....I don't want $25, I want $50. or $75.....Everyone wants instant gratification nowadays and it ain't gonna happen here.....
    Even with a better launch I don't see us being much over a 700-1000 scripts a week including specialties at this point....It's a tough market to crack like a few Sales Reps and Nephrologists on this board have stated I'm sure that was Greg's reasoning in trying to get up to 80% in formularies delivered 20% Salesforce.....When these scripts start moving up nicely we may get the pressure on some of those and hit that 80% mark.....They just have to keep plugging away.....GLTA...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The majority was sold to Wholesalers, Specialty Pharmas, Hospitals, etc...This will be where the BIG BUCKS come from......Worrying and #$%$ about weekly scripts is similar to Pole Vaulting over Mouse Turd...Those figures came off a sales report from the old Genzyme Site.....I've posted this info before....All this will take time because we all know the launch was f----- up........I'm not really expecting any reasonably good numbers until Q3 or Q4......That's why I don't get all bent out of shape about'em.....

    .HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.........

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hoping for a rise...

    by dorseye Feb 5, 2016 7:29 AM
    crazitjo crazitjo Feb 5, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    I had a rise this morning when I woke up but both hands were asleep.....Who woulda thunk it.......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Kerx is up 8% for the week

    by a_gasparyan Jan 29, 2016 4:31 PM
    crazitjo crazitjo Jan 29, 2016 5:56 PM Flag

    kleeno69....I can remember you saying before approval it would take 90 Sales Reps for the launch......I guess one of us should have told Ron.....Good call.......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Sponsor: Winthorp University Hospital.....Collaborator: Keryx Biopharmaceuticals
    ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02661295
    Now Recruiting.........

    Also showing IDA trial completed..........

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • He has a Wrist, a Wrist Watch, a Forearm with hair on it that appears to be hooked to his upper arm.......So now you all know what Seth has up his sleeve.....And just remember who figured this out first.....just having some fun........But it is true....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    10% loss each day can't hold up much longer...

    by deanjm35 Jan 14, 2016 10:03 AM
    crazitjo crazitjo Jan 14, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    Koolflowers ya I remember....She had a real photo of herself on her profile......When I saw the name Dean on your posts I said to myself I remember a Dean along time ago on the board not realizing it was actually you....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • crazitjo crazitjo Jan 14, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    dd...I was pretty sure we were good on that until 2024......Thanks for the confirmation....Some of the problem with some of these out dated articles keeps confusing people.......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    10% loss each day can't hold up much longer...

    by deanjm35 Jan 14, 2016 10:03 AM
    crazitjo crazitjo Jan 14, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    Remember delriowineandspirits.? He's still around but now westsidewineandspirits......Perogieman is the guy that was always arguing with Allan Fester....Don't know if you remember either one from back then or not.....Not many left from those days....I have done pretty much the same thing share wise as you but I never completely sold out. I still hold the ones that I bought in Dec.2008 at 20 cents plus the ones after the Peri failure in the $1.30's and I have bought a bunch in the 3's and 4's on these two big drops down to here....This is still gonna be a big moneymaker.....I did think it would hit twenty after approval, but it didn't......I sold in the low $16's....We just have to sit back and wait but it will get back up there.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    10% loss each day can't hold up much longer...

    by deanjm35 Jan 14, 2016 10:03 AM
    crazitjo crazitjo Jan 14, 2016 11:17 AM Flag

    dean.......I remember you....Hey let me remove that post I made up above.......That was back in the 2 buck and under a share days....Glad your still around....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nephrologycat or other docs on the board...

    by phish3 Jan 12, 2016 2:52 PM
    crazitjo crazitjo Jan 13, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    It's approved in the E.U. and Japan for pre-dialysis but if I remember right the FDA said they would have to run a separate trial for IDA in NDD-CKD to get the label.....The FDA would not approve it for both in the original NDA.......

    Just my opinion but I think there was probably quite a bit of political maneuvering to make sure it didn't get both labels from the big Pharma's that are competing in the same market.....It makes no sense that the other two Foreign Drug Agencies would approve it but the FDA has to play games with it.....Anyone who thinks politics isn't involved in these decision has their head in the sand.....Though we all know it shouldn't be....This is about peoples lives and the FDA shouldn't be playing games with their well being...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • crazitjo crazitjo Jan 13, 2016 11:10 AM Flag

    That was one thing that always bothered me about Ron but I never talked about it.....Don't make comments that can be used against you down the line......We can all be Monday morning quarterbacks after the fact, but once he said that it put us in a position that if we delayed the launch people like A.F. would have been all over it......Maybe something like when we found out about the delay being made about the approval, he could have said with this time frame change we might have to re-evaluate our options on the launch...That way we have the option to take more time to get the proper things done to have a successful launch and take the naysayers out of the picture....He gave timeframes on different topics that turned out to be way off on accuracy...Don't get me wrong I backed him 110% on everything...I made a bunch of money while he was CEO.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • crazitjo crazitjo Jan 13, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    Thanks Dave.....Japan is a secretive area....If you remember back to when JT / TORII announced their approval an analyst asked Ron about the results.... Ron said he could not disclose the results but they were good.....So I have always assumed that there must be an agreement between the two companies that we can't disclose much info regarding their results.....I'm sure we have the info we just can't comment on it.....Over there, BUSINESS IS WAR.....We know the royalty figures double digit to mid double digit. It could be enticing to an interested party but like I said that's some out of the box thinking..

    One other thing is they mentioned regional partnerships or just a single partner.Sometimes the pieces could be worth more than the whole....Not saying that I would back that but it is an option...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • crazitjo crazitjo Jan 13, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    6060....If I remember correctly it was the CC of the Phase II ND CKD Q&A session that an analyst asked Ron if Davita locations were used in the trial and to what extent....Ron's reply was Yes and 40%....plus Davita did a cost savings analysis that showed $750 million a year could be saved in treatment costs by using Auryxia versus current standard care so they are well aware of the savings...But you're right we need the Nephrologists to write those scripts....
    .Fresesnius did a worldwide study in 2011 that resulted in the average dialysis center worldwide has 62 patients with the top 5 countries with ESRD patients being the U.S., Brazil, Germany, China and Japan.....These 5 have over 50% of the worlds ESRD patients......I think at the time they estimated there were around 2.5 million ESRD patients worldwide.......3 to 5 patients per center I don't think is unrealistic to accomplish....That's only 5 to 8% at figures that are over 5 years old on the centers patient population...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • crazitjo crazitjo Jan 12, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    Just my thoughts,

    (1) Script growth....After hearing the call and Greg saying that Fres and Davita are both using Auryxia this could snowball since it means that Fresenius is using our binder over their own.....As we all know those two have over 4000 locations....3 to 5 scripts a month per location is all we need to put us in the green...A big jump in those numbers quarterly could put us on a roll......
    .There are two things all of us should realize,(1)When we received the 90 day delay for approval Ron stated even with the delay we could still launch in Q4, that was the first mistake. That cut out what I think was critical time for marketing and sales strategy....(2) Ron during that time had also said they believed they could launch with 60 sales reps....that's the second mistake. As I pointed out in another post the ship started heading in the right direction after Greg became the CEO and started to make changes...

    (2) E.U....Now this is just a little out of the box thinking......What if we included Japan in the E.U. deal to fatten the up front cash payment....We let the E.U. PARTNER have the milestone payments and royalties eventually from Japan and put it in the deal at a discount to what JT/ TORII owes us in return for upfront cash which would strengthen the balance sheet even more..

    (3) Topline results...Dr.Steven Fishbane probably the leading ANEMIA SPECIALIST in the country and Co-Chair of the phase II ND CKD and the current phase III trial said he thought the IDA could be expanded to more than just ND CKD.....That would open up another revenue channel.....So this drug some have called a one trick pony could end up serving a much larger patient population than any of us thought about.....

    JMO any one of these three topics could propel the share price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting facts from, and my take on the webcast

    by phish3 Jan 11, 2016 9:05 PM
    crazitjo crazitjo Jan 12, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    Nephrologists will eventually learn that the warning is a good warning and make sure they are reducing or stop the I-V Iron as to not overload the patient once they have started Auryxia..
    The label warning has been totally misconstrued......Due to most all warnings are thought to be a negative which this is not......In other words Auryxia works so well you need to stop the I-V Iron...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

KERX
3.23+0.04(+1.25%)Feb 10 4:00 PMEST