One thing I know for sure, posters that post "hahahahahaha" or "bwahahahahaha" have ZERO credibility with me. They are surely unprofessional and probably also sociopaths. I'll also throw sadistic into the mix. And, it's only a matter of time before the Universe teaches them a hard lesson or two about being humble.
At 2.75 the company is going for FREE! $300 million tax loss carryforwards (NOLs) which are worth approx $100 million present value to an acquirer. 2.75 x 42 million shares = $115 million! OK, so company would be going for $15 million to a buyer. And, still, MAYBE it will go to 50 cents. Anything can happen when the market goes into total panic ISIS/AL QUEDA DEFLATION end of the world mode (like 2008). We are there. Everything going bankrupt, everything will be .00001 on pink sheets, nobody needs anybody's outdated garbage software, 25 states will file bankruptcy, new recession is here worldwide. FEARRRRRRRRRRRR FEAR FEAR. I'm personally really really worried that my entire portfolio will soon go down to an average price of $1 per share.
And, THIS time is different. It really really is different THIS time. I need a drink, a doobie, a xanax, and box of grape nerds. Especially the grape nerds.
VMEM "downgraded" to a price target which would be a GAIN from here of about 70%?! LOL
My advice is to NEVER EVER listen to anything any stock analysts say. Good or bad. Their track records in the aggregate are horrendous.
What EVIDENCE do you have that FSP is "having quality problems?" That's a significant claim you're making and you need to back it up with some FACTS! Thank you in advance.
You're just IGNORING my FACT that FUEL has $300 million of NOL tax losses that ARE worth about $100 million to an acquiring company (if their in the same industry).
That would mean that at current stock price FUEL would be bought for only $40 million!
They paid over $200 million for X+1 alone, and other companies wanted X+1 (as publically stated by the X+1 CEO). There's no way that FUEL is not worth more than 3.25. imho
Shorts, I'm sorry, unless you know of something really wrong happening within the company that is not public knowledge, you are WRONG to remain short on this one.
The company, even with the current increase, as I type today, has a market value of about $140 million.
BUT, their NOLs (current tax loss carryforwards) is about $300 million after the recent goodwill writeoff.
Those NOLs are worth approximately $100 present value to certain companies that could buy out FUEL.
That would mean that at the current stock price of approx $3.40 the company would be bought for only about $40 million!
That is ridiculous and the current stock price for FUEL can not, imho, be sustained. It has to rise.
Sure, anything can happen and maybe there is something bad I don't know about but barring that this stock IS a bargain right now.
There is basically NOTHING wrong with, nothing sinister waiting to be revealed with FUEL, imho.
Their last few quarters have shown improving financial bottom line results.
They are not in financial dire straights.
They don't have huge debt. Their existing debt is very manageable.
They have an apparently very competent new CEO.
Their technology is among the best in their industry according to most experts.
The industry they sell to (digital programmatic ad space) is still growing at a nice clip.
MOST secondary stocks are currently, and have been, getting bombed.
It's been a bear market in ALL but a handful of stocks.
They are in the process of going to their extremes on the downside.
Each stock gets its own excuses, one by one.
End of story.
You just have to wait it out for the eventual turnaround and sustained rebound.
If the company whose stock you own doesn't go bankrupt, the stock will rebound.
FUEL is not in any imminent danger (next year or two at least) of going bankrupt - again, imho.
Could FUEL go lower first? Of course. Nothing surprises me with stocks in the short-term.
FUEL could even go to $2 before turning around.
But if it does, it won't mean there's anything more wrong than there was at $7.
In fact, there was more wrong with FUEL at $7 then there is now.
Those estimates are incorrect, I'm pretty certain. For example, I've noticed that Yahoo has a habit of mixing up non-GAAP earnings with GAAP earnings back and forth, no consistency.
The fact IS that FUELS adjusted earnings for 4th quarter are estimated to be PLUS 3 to 7 million dollars.
That's UP from $3 million in quarter just reported and that was up from $1 million the quarter before.
So, this company IS making positive progress every quarter now!
Three consecutive quarters: $1, $3, $5 (mid range of estimate)!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yeah, I have an idea. My idea is that you shouldn't believe that a stock dropping causes bankruptcy. That's the tail wagging the dog!!!!
p.s. I especially do not believe that MDV has to be able to say that they lost $100 million, or whatever it is, by holding their 9 million shares into the ground. That is absurd. Nobody wants to blow $100 million!
I don't really care where FUEL once was or how much MDV made. What I care about is right now. Is FUEL worth more than $3.68 right now? I think it is, substantially.
Of course, if current management does not execute well then they could blow it.
I see a lot of positives with current management abilities, FUEL's cutting edge technology, AND in the financial statements. I don't believe for a minute that FUEL's software is not helping enterprises or that it is totally unnecessary and that other firms' tech can do the job, that FUEL is specifically trying to do, better.
Don't worry too much r6d. WHEN the whole stock market gets out of this current severe correction FUEL WILL recover - a lot. You have a job so just see your fuel shares as forced savings, for now.
It IS a real company with real, beneficial products. IF it was a scam I'd be worried but it is highly unlikely that is the case imho. Sure, it was never worth $40 but it also is not worth $3 and change. That's the stock market. Nothing else in the entire world has its price fluctuate between such extremes as stocks.
Fuel's situation would be analogous to a house being $3 million one day and then a year later being $50,000.
Just because that same house is $50,000 it doesn't at all mean it's a structurally unsound building.
I know you know all this. Enjoy your weekend. I'm also currently losing my shirt on numerous good companies but I know it will not stay this way for too long. The only important consideration regarding DD is to try to be sure the company can not go bankrupt before the stock recovers with the whole market. I don't see any way that can happen to FUEL. And, I had to force myself to type this post because it seems every time I post that I'm bullish my stocks go lower. Must be the NSA, Snowden, Putin, and Ackman tapping into my PC.
"That putz crazyworld owns FUEL, let's bring it down to $1 and destroy him."
The parade cost is insignificant to Macy's long-term results and generates a ton of positive exposure. I think it would be a terrible idea to cancel it and it would also send out a message that Macy's was in big trouble which is not true.
The majority of secondary small cap stocks are down at least 50% over the last 6 months.
It is NOT just FUEL that's been going down down down the last few months or even year. Just look at ALL of the secondary and tertiary stocks. They're ALL way way way down. ALL OF THEM! This has been a stealth crash in most stocks except for a very few like FB etc. So, trying to find a logical reason for what's wrong with FUEL is a futile and meaningless exercise.
WHEN this severe downdraft ends, and I don't know when that is, then, they'll all be going back up again - even semi#$%$ ones like FUEL.
With the $112 million write off of Goodwill just taken, FUEL now has an accumulated deficit of about $300 million! THAT, I believe, now changes prospects of a buyout to making it much more possible and likely.
IF a company in essentially the same industry (the acquirer would have to be in essentially the same industry to fully use the accumulated losses of FUEL by IRS rules) buys FUEL I calculate that the Present Value of those $300 million in accumulated losses could be worth approx $120 million to the acquirer!
THAT now makes buying FUEL at a price of $300 million or so a MUCH more likely event.
The acquirer would actually be paying only about $180 million.
So, is FUEL worth $180 million to a buyer? I think so.
X+1 is probably worth $100 million easily and remember FUEL paid about $200 million for X+1.
And X+1 is was very highly regarded and had many suitors before chosing FUEL.
That would mean that all the rest of FUEL would be getting bought for only $80 million!
Is FUEL minus X+1 worth $80 million? I think absolutely. Their IPO had them valued at about $600 million WITHOUT X+1!
It is also a strong possibilty that all of those executives that have recently resigned (the CEO, CFO, etc)
did so because they know the company is being bought soon.
So if some company pays $300 million for FUEL that works out to about 300/42 million shares = about $7 per share. That would be a VERY fair price for a buyer.
But, will entities like MDV and other big owners go for that price?
P.S. It is correct that MDVs current 9 million shares is a holdover from before the IPO. NASDAQ and I were wrong, they did NOT buy those shares post IPO!
Sentiment: Strong Buy