So take a look at a few Biotechs...JAZZ $175 (60mill OS & 1bill Rev ), VRTX $125 (240mill OS & 0.79 bill Rev), ILMN $200 (142mill OS & 1.7bill Rev) , BMRN $99 (147mill OS & 0.67bill Rev).
At this point ACAD has about 100 mill OS, no doubt they will increase that down the line. Lets guess within the next 1-2 yrs they will increase their OS to about 140-150 Mill. This should not be a surprise when it occurs, totally expected for a growing company developing marketing and selling their own drug. My best guess is we will be most like ILMN, with over 1Bill in Rev's, approx 140 mill OS and a share price somewhere around $200 in the next 2-3 yrs.
Remember many PD patients are cared for at home UNTIL they get psychotic, then its off to an expensive nursing home - Not all nursing homes will take " dementia " patients. So its a huge cost to the family/health care to move these patients out of the home. PIMA will be the ONLY DRUG INDICATED FOR PDP.
Lets see...the European Union (EU) has 1.6 Million cases of Parkinson's Disease (PD) and 40% will need treat for Parkinson's Disease Psychosis (PDP) at some point. So thats 1.6 mil x .4 = 640,000 patients with PDP. Now conservative guess of ACAD gets 10% penetration the first full year of approval , 0.1 x 640,000 = 64,000 PDP patient treated the first year. Price, well the USA tends to subsidize the world so figure a lower price , call it $13,000 per year per patient , 64,000 (PDP patients) x $13,000/yr = $ 832,000,000 first year, @ 10% penetration only first year with a discounted price. Also keep in mind not included would be off label use. So we might be looking at 1 Billion ( thats with a B) the first year in the EU.
I am not sure whats going on down in the Iggy basemant, but I heard a bunch of guys yelling. Spitter was moaning...I could hear the other guys yelling at him to " spit ...spit !!! ".
Hahahahahahaha...........sorry guys how do you like being locked up in the Iggy basement with no food, water or bathrooms....I heard some screaming...you guys ok down there? Back in a while, I might toss you some dog #$%$ -you can feast on that. Hehehehehehe.
Yes thats how I thought of this, kept seeing the commercial on TV. My thought is if these patients where on Pima for psychosis then they might not need the Vanda drug. Or ACAD might try to get and indication for Non-24.
I keep seeing the Vanda commercial on TV, perhaps ACAD might consider this issue.
High Beta stock, shorting, profit taking...just keep in mind if you sell and don't want to miss the show you have to buy back soon. Shorts still have to cover about 17 million shares and the NDA will be released any time...for all I know it might be early Monday morning. When this happens the stock price will move so fast many orders won't get filled and many will be left behind.
1,000,000 PD patients in the USA, of which 40% will get PDP at some point. Consider just 10% penetration - 400,000 PDP patients x 0.1 = 40,000 patients . Each at $14,600/yr, - 40,000 x 14,600 = $584,000,000/yr- Thats with only 10% of the USA market alone. And Acadia has the WORLD WIDE RIGHTS TO PIMA, FIRST IN ITS CLASS-ONE OF A KIND.