I agree the $22..50 seemed really weak . I was very surprised it cracked so easily-Perhaps because the stock opened so weak. $hit happens I guess. But in general, the numbers are ...more like a guide with each number giving its relative strength. So chill and stop being such a numb skull and shut your pie hole, use it or ignore it, your choice.
Your relative has severe PDP and is an in-patient in a costly SNF- Then PIMA gets released and it stabilizes your relative enough to be discharged home from the SNF. Wow how cool is that.
The European Union has about 1.6 Million Parkinson's Disease patients. So 640,000 will need treatment for PDP at some point.
Many Biotech stocks go down after FDA approval, keep that in mind. But IF MNKD can get a Partner this stock will really fly. So just use money you can lose. If you can not afford to lose it, consider a mutual fund, eg, VTI ( total stock market) or IBB( biotech MF). You will need to leave it alone for a while to see the money grow. Good luck...and don't listen to anyone one on a stock message board...including me ;)
Well I could not find the cost of care in a nursing home for a PDP patient so I will just use the Alzheimer's cost which is probably close.
" According to the MetLife Mature Market Study, 68% of assisted living communities surveyed nationwide provide dementia and Alzheimer’s care for their residents. The study also found that the national average for Alzheimer’s care costs at an assisted living community is $4,762 per month or $57,144 annually."
I don't know if this just covers the stay and not meds or other special therapy etc.
So PIMA can keep patients out of a SNF( Skilled Nursing Facility also call a "sniff " ) . Actually the Range I noted was $4+-7,000/month for Alzheimer's care in a SNF. So if PIMA cost say $10 /day = x 30 d = $300/mo that is still a great savings. You can calculate the cost per year if you knew exactly how many patients were treated. eg, 1 million PD patients in the USA alone...40% or 400,000 will get PDP at some point, if you consider say 100,000 pt's need treatment now....100K x $300/mon x 12= $360 Million per year in the USA only. So the real incentive is to keep PDP pt's out of the SNF. $300 per month is way better than $4-7,000 per month. The insurance companies will have tremendous pressure to cover the cost of PIMA since it will be the only drug indicated for PDP Even if they use protocols they will still be liable if the patients get the risky side effects to the of say Clozapine -
"Main side effects
Agranulocytosis (1%), seizures, myocarditis, gastrointestinal hypomotility, weight gain, diabetes mellitus or hyperglycemia, hypercholesterolemia, orthostatic hypotension, sedation, sialorrhea. Clozapine bears a “black box” warning of potential for increased mortality risk in elderly dementia patients on conventional or atypical antipsychotics. (Most deaths are due to cardiovascular or infectious events it remains unclear if the deaths are due to antipsychotics or to patient characteristics or the patient population.)"
I posted this question and got not one answer. So some here feels MRK could pay $30/share or more for a buy out of MNKD, this amounts to approx. 11 BILLION ( PERHAPS CASH & STOCK)... A 300% premium ...So how much can MRK get in return per year? Please explain how you arrived at your number. I read something last week that Afrezza might have up to $600,000,000 per year sales....So if you were MRK CEO you would think that is a good deal?
10 % could use it, but with restriction it will be lower. If you are a pharm D then you are well aware that many drugs esp costly brand name new drugs have restrictions.
DM2 patients can use oral agents for many years and NEVER go on injectables. I had 100's of patients on oral agent with good HA1C levels. Many will walk daily and improve their weight. And most can not afford to eat out every night. I am surprised at your view of these patients.
OK...partner THEN SELL Afrezza and Technosphere ? So sell it to the partner? How does that work exactly?
Well lets just use your low number of $30/share....Cost to MRK $ 11.34 BILLION....thats a huge chunk of their cash on hand. Thats a 300% premium. WOW OH WOW !!!..Now let me ask the next question HOW MUCH WILL MRK MAKE PER YEAR FROM AFFREZZ ?
Buy out could come in low killing any hopes of those who bought in HIGH in the past to get their money back. The buyer will site stiff competition...black Box Warning....Restrictions for prescribing...Debt....etc to justify the low premium of 20-30 %. But a Partnership could be more profitable in the long run...MNKD could also profit from FUTURE drugs using their technology. So maybe in this case a Partnership would be the better choice. I would be interested in knowing what you think...what Buy OUT price would you guess? do you think a partner would be better?
When they say it will be priced "competitively " say close to the cost of human injectable insulin, what will the competition do.... My guess is they won't have to do much at first because of the drug protocol restrictions that will be in place when Affrezza is released. But at some point the makers of injectable insulin could lower their price to give an incentive to the health care/drug providers not to change over to inhaled insulin.