An estimated 5.3 million Americans of all ages have Alzheimer's disease in 2015. And the total is increasing. There is no cure. "In the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved two types of medications — cholinesterase inhibitors (Aricept, Exelon, Razadyne) and memantine (Namenda) — to treat the cognitive symptoms (memory loss, confusion, and problems with thinking and reasoning) of Alzheimer's disease."
Aricept is least expensive about $12/month generic. Namenda is about $4200/ year ( about $350/mo) Brand name. I am thinking a new "better " drug will cost about $6000/yr, conservative est for sure. So with 10% penetration = 530,000 patients, would bring in about 3.18 Billion/yr in the USA ONLY. The high estimate world wide is about 35 million AD patients world wide. ...
AVXL Average Rev's could conservatively go to 3 Bil / year, easy.
And companies with Avg Rev's 2.4 Bil have a Avg MK of 44B. Avg OS = 158 mil.
So if we guess conservatively give AVXL a MK of 30 B with OS 175Mil , the share price would be approx $171/share. As an added note, you would need approx 5847 shares to make a million$ at that share price.
Look at ACAD 5 yr chart. It stayed at $1.60 for a while, moved up to $2.60 when only news of enrollment was issued. Then BOOM ! $5.20 with top line P3 data release for PIMA, a treatment for Parkinson's Disease Psychosis that affects about 40% of the 1mill Parkinson's US patient population. Great efficacy and safety, small molecule (sound familiar?). In fact ACAD will do an AD study also. But AVXL is ahead of ACAD with their AD study already showing greater efficacy than SOC and disease modifying - that is unique in the biotech sector after 10 yrs of failed AD studies. I think this is a scenario AVXL will follow. News will move this higher, data release, up listing, partnership, enrollment etc, many others. You don't want to be out of the stock when news hits. You will miss the big money.
""Our proprietary SIGMACEPTOR™ Discovery Platform produced small molecule drug candidates with unique modes of action, based on our understanding of sigma receptors. Sigma receptors may be targets for therapeutics to combat many human diseases, including Alzheimer's disease. When bound by the appropriate ligands, sigma receptors influence the functioning of multiple biochemical signals that are involved in the pathogenesis (origin or development) of disease."" Now there are 8 different pipeline drugs. I assume are all a result of the SIGMACETOR Discovery Platform- it is somewhat over looked and really a great source of new drug small molecule discovery that is probably worth Multi-Millions if not Billions. And that's value NOW, not accounted for in the share price.
“We remain on track to submit our NUPLAZID™ New Drug Application for Parkinson’s disease psychosis to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in the second half of 2015,” said Steve Davis, ACADIA’s Interim Chief Executive Officer. “I am pleased with the significant progress that we have made in advancing the preparation of manufacturing quality systems to support commercial manufacturing and supply. In addition, we continue to build out our infrastructure to support the planned commercial launch of NUPLAZID in the United States. We’re bringing highly accomplished industry veterans into the organization with recent senior level appointments in manufacturing, quality, compliance, strategy, business development, and access and reimbursement.”
“We also have had a strong presence at medical meetings during the first half of the year and recently presented integrated data from NUPLAZID’s Phase III program at the International Congress of Parkinson’s Disease and Movement Disorders. The data underscore the potential of NUPLAZID to improve the lives of patients with Parkinson’s disease psychosis, a condition for which there is no approved therapy in the United States.”
Research and development expenses increased to $18.4 million for the second quarter of 2015, including $2.8 million in stock-based compensation expense, from $13.8 million for the comparable quarter of 2014, including $1.1 million in stock-based compensation expense. This increase was primarily due to an increase of $4.1 million in personnel and related costs and stock-based compensation expense associated with ACADIA’s expanded research and development organization.
General and administrative expenses increased to $21.1 million for the second quarter of 2015, including $4.7 million in stock-based compensation expense, from $8.0 million for the comparable quarter of 2014, including $3.2 million in stock-based compensation expense. This increase was due to increases in personnel and related costs of $7.9 million and increases in external services costs of $5.2 million, all largely related to ACADIA’s commercial preparations for the planned launch of NUPLAZID.
Several times I rec to compare AVXL to the 5yr chart of ACAD- Consider also the market for the ACAD drug Pima is about 400,000 Parkinson's disease psychosis patients in the USA, and about 640,000 in the EU. The population of AVXL is 5 mil patients with AD in the USA only. Approx 35 mill world wide. Now what % of patient could benefit from 2-73/2-73+ could be most of the mild to mod AD's patients. Not sure if it will help the severely ill elderly with AD, but some of these severely affected patients may benefit from a trial of the drug.
An estimated 5.3 million Americans of all ages have Alzheimer's disease in 2015. There is no cure. "In the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved two types of medications — cholinesterase inhibitors (Aricept, Exelon, Razadyne) and memantine (Namenda) — to treat the cognitive symptoms (memory loss, confusion, and problems with thinking and reasoning) of Alzheimer's disease."
Aricept is least expensive about $12/month generic( low Co-Pay). Namenda is about $4200/ year ( about $350/mo and many insurers charge the patient a large Co-Pay for the Brand name drug). I am thinking a new "better " drug will cost about $6000/yr. So with 10% penetration = 530,000 patients, would bring in about 3.18 Billion/yr Rev's in the USA ONLY. There are about 35 million AD patients world wide. ... I estimate lower because 1) 35% penetration will not be easy, despite a high demand, Insurers/HMO's will put up a brick wall to cover it. They will use the typical protocols to keep cost down. 2) The patients will most likely not want to pay for it out of pocket, esp if we use your cost of 25K/yr. Few could afford it.
Now here's a odd thing I thought about....people using it who don't have AD, just to improve their memory, off label. Say using it a few months before the Bar Exam, Major tests, performances, GRE, MCAT, etc. I am fairly sure sooner or later that will happen.
" ANAVEX 2-73 also shows SYNERGISTIC activity with three generations of epilepsy drugs currently on the market: ETS (Zarontin ®), VPA (Depakene®) and Gabapentin (Neurontin®) "
Tangui Nicolas Maurice, Ph.D.
A member of the Scientific Advisory Board, Dr. Maurice has spent 15 years in the field of neurosciences, including behavioral and molecular neuropharmacology, sigma receptors, neuropeptides, neurosteroids, neurotrophic factors, normal/pathological aging models for Alzheimer’s and related disorders, and behavioral phenotyping of rodent models. Dr. Maurice is a researcher at the Institut national de la sante et de la recherche medicale (INSERM) U710 at Montpellier. He has also held research positions at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), INSERM U336, the department of neuropsychopharmacology and hospital pharmacy at Meijo University (Nagoya, Japan), and Jouveinal Research Institute (Fresnes, France).
It is our pleasure to welcome you to the Dementia Conferences 2015 during August 31 - September 02, 2015 Toronto, Canada. The conference will be organized around the theme of “Diagnosis Approaches of Dementia and Alzheimer’s Disease”.....Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, is one of the biggest global public health challenges facing our generation. Worldwide, at least 44 million people are living with dementia this number is expected to double by 2030 and more than triple by 2050 to 115 million.....Today, over 35 million people worldwide currently live with the condition...... No treatments available to slow or stop the brain damage caused by Alzheimer’s disease, several medications can temporarily help improve the symptoms of dementia for some people.....In two decades, it is estimated that 1.4 million Canadians will have dementia, costing the economy almost $300 billion per year. Globally, dementia cost $600 billion a year.
Track 1: Causes and Prevention of Alzheimer’s...In this track we can discuss on Neurological changes in brain, Epidemiology and prevalence, Amyloid protein, Genetic associations and susceptibility genes, Role of Apolipoprotein E, Brain trauma, Metabolic syndrome and Alzheimer’s disease, Protein misfolding, aggregation and toxicity, Disease-causing mutations, Histone modification, DNA methylation, Alzheimer’s disease prevention......many Renowned Speakers.
My personal PT is more like $7-$8. Buyout PT is about $15-$20. But the point is the UPGRADE by Zacks - they tend to be conservative and somewhat "old school " in their evaluations, EPS etc. This stock is going a whole lot higher than $6.25-Zacks PT.
...use a SELL STOP. The MM see's your sell point and can now judge how far to drop the stock to take your shares and clear a bunch of Sell Stop from you rookies...you lock in your losses...so now the MM turning around and selling your shares higher. Don't play their game. if you must, have a "mental Sell Stop ". You are giving the MM the advantage using a Sell Stop.
Dr. Missling, President and CEO of Anavex, has over 20 years of healthcare industry experience within large pharmaceutical companies
Dr. Zografidis, the Vice President Clinical Operations of Anavex, has over 25 years of experience in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry, including 12 years at Wyeth (now Pfizer) in clinical project management
Abraham Fisher, PhD has nearly 40 years of experience in drug design and discovery.
Norman Relkin, MD, PhD -A member of the Scientific Advisory Board, Dr. Relkin is an internationally recognized expert on Alzheimer’s disease and related disorders.
Michael Gold, MD A member of the Scientific Advisory Board, Dr. Gold has over 20 years of experience in the clinical development of Alzheimer’s and other central nervous system (CNS) drugs, and currently serves as Vice President of the CNS practice at UCB, Inc., a global biopharmaceutical company.
John Harrison, PhD -A member of the Scientific Advisory Board, Dr. Harrison is an internationally acknowledged specialist for design of human clinical outcome measurement in Alzheimer’s disease and other cognitive impairments.
Ottavio Arancio, MD, PhD A member of the Scientific Advisory Board, Dr. Arancio is a cellular neurobiologist who has pioneered the field of mechanisms of synaptic dysfunction in Alzheimer’s disease. He is Associate Professor of Pathology and Cell Biology at the Columbia University Medical Center and The Taub Institute for Research on Alzheimer’s Disease and the Aging Brain, Columbia University.
Tangui Nicolas Maurice, Ph.D.-A member of the Scientific Advisory Board, Dr. Maurice has spent 15 years in the field of neurosciences, including behavioral and molecular neuropharmacology, sigma receptors, neuropeptides, neurosteroids, neurotrophic factors, normal/pathological aging models for Alzheimer’s and related disorders, and behavioral phenotyping of rodent models.
My apology to the other experts that I could not add to the list is too long.
BTW I see the dimwit iflip$.hit posting to me, but sorry I can't see your post I put your bung on IGNORE a long time ago. Sit on it and Rotate. ROTFLMAO.
Geez, I am tired of all your cry baby posts regarding the CEO. Again, if he is so bad why don't you sell your 200 shares and move on. The CEO is not going anywhere, not buying shares to please you and not hiding from the boggy man. So last chance, one more and I will be done with you. I will send you into the abyss.... IGNORELAND.
Gee, you make it sold like the 25Mil shares are sold retail, 100 here, 500 there. It doesn't work that way. Who needs these shares? The hedge funds that shorted 50 million shares- thats who and they will buy a ton at one time via Cowen et al. They are not sitting there buying 100 shares. The offer will probably be over subscribed anyway. Holding your short over the weekend is a huge risk. When shorts start screaming non-sense they are close to walking into the light. Have a nice weekend.
Right about now AF or Zach at the puter working on their Hit piece. They always come through, scare the bejeebers out of the weak hands (warrants, low number of patient data etc) and then brag how right-on they were. But when the sp goes back up they will NEVER admit they missed the boat. Waiting for either a very organized short attack, many times follow by a hit piece. Then BUY.