Its now riskier to short than to buy & hold.
Afrezza....will only get about 1% of the diabetic market and sales could be VERY DISAPPOINTING. But good company fundamentals could keep this stock from a future huge DUMP when the first Q sales are announced.
They must increase SHAREHOLDER VALUE- they don't seem to remember that concept.
Must not issue more shares for at least 1 year
Must pay off some debt
Continue to stay on all 4 cylinders with their R&D
Avoid excessive bonus and compensation
Top-down Critical review & consolidation of all major costs & spending
Reach out for other partners to develop more revenue streams
Critical review and monitoring of all current revenue streams
Most likely the company is already doing many of these steps and more, but I think they need to go back to the drawing board and take another look at their internal processes. They have succeeded and failed. They need to recognize that despite their great success in bringing Afrezza to approval they have also failed to bring value to the shareholders. Why? The company fundamental have come back to haunt them. As long as they place their "success " above basic company fundamental shareholder value will never reach the full potential it should. If the CEO can't see that, he should be voted out.
Basically, re-visit Good Company Fundamentals.
As a side issue, a mediocre performance has no place here - I would strongly consider firing that moron that was not prepared and mentioned he had a "tired brain" during the last news conference. For a top executive in a major company to be unprepared - not having the simple number of OS is just pitiful. I would not want this lacky on my team. Then he makes a lame excuse of having a "tired brain " to an open news conference
web cast. Just unforgivable.
Afrezza is the validation of that technology. It is not a bock buster. But will get the ball rolling for new Revenue stream and is only the first of a line of inhaled products. This stock is no longer a speculative stock. Its a long term investment. So you own it- better get use to the term "dead money" at least till the sales numbers come in. It succeeded where PFE failed (so far). What is the next drug to get close to a NDA?
This is about the future now, how about space suit inhaled meds - so your out on a long space walk and you get a severe muscle cramp...Well you can't reach in you pocket and take a pill, you can't give your self a shot....just push a button and inhaled anti cramp med shoots into your mouth. I might be ahead of my time?
$4 or $14? ....Now in April it did get down to $15+ BRIEFLY. But that's it. It jumped right back to close about $18. You only get those opportunities ONCE. So I take it you're out at this point. As far as re-visiting the teens...I wish it would , not entirely impossible, but as each day goes by it will be harder and harder for that to happen. As it stays at any one level, it will tend to build Support. So good luck with trying to get back in at your number, but I think you missed the boat. This is why a wise ACAD trader, doesn't cash in ALL his/her shares...they have CORE HOLDINGS and some TRADING SHARES. Congrats on that great trade (wink) at $28, but if you are gonna wait till $4 or $14...you will NEVER get back in.
I don't own any shares, but I think the low is in and hopefully up manana. The drug will not be a BlockBuster, but it shows the true value of the company - AFREZZA VALIDATES THE TECHNOLOGY. You'll most likely get your money back. I wouldn't sell and LOCK IN YOUR LOSSES.
Using Candlestick numbers approx $11.50 and $4.50 I got a Full Fib retrace of $ 7.23. Todays range so far,7.22 - 8.27.
So for "fun" I calculated a full Fib Retrace ( 61%)using a bottom of $5.25 and a top of $11(line chart) and I got $7.49, its already past that so you might be looking at the bottom. Gonna check the candlestick numbers.
GREAT COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS, LOW OUTSTANDING SHARES, a TON OF CASH, NO DEBT, a NEW DRUG PROVEN SAFE & EFFECTIVE, a ONE OF A KIND DRUG ,FIRST IN ITS CLASS DRUG that will be THE ONLY INDICATION for a severe disease, FDA ALREADY REVIEWED PHASE 3 data and gave the thumbs up for a NDA - on deck.
1 Million PD patients in the USA only. 40% will develop PDP at some point, some say less. OK, what ? 20%, But i still don't see the "losing bet".., PDP is late stage for PD patients. A fair % that get started on the drug will remain on the drug- its safe and effective. So the number of patients will be accumulative. The number will grow every year. Besides for the first year or so you don't expect to see full penetration of the drug in the PDP " market ". I am thinking first Q maybe 10-20% penetration. So (cost of the drug for 90days) x (0.2) x (total number of patients with PDP) = $ for first Q, subsequent formulas will see a spike in the penetration. Lets say it's 20,000 patients total this year (kinda like a worst case scenario, pick the lowest number ) that need Rx. So 1st Q, 20,000 x 0.2(20% penetration) = 4000 patients x ( drug cost for 90days) = total sales for 1st Q. So the key here is what will the drug cost. Lets say cost is $ 30/day. So 4000 patients x 90 days x $30/day =
$10.8 MILLION...1stQ. Thats approx what I would expect. $10-20 mill for the 1st Q. Now as each Q rolls by the penetration will dramatically rise. Now if we are talking 2-400,000 patients...well I can't count that high. The EU has about 1.6 Million PD patients, you could consider maybe another 600,000 that will need treatment at some point.
Its one thing to not have the number on hand ( and why not?) , but its another thing to make a lame excuse. He should be fired, he really looks incompetent.
Look the point is the drug is NOT a block buster...it will not have ginormous sales - the value of this drug is the validation of the technology- not a drug that might get sales of 1% of the diabetic market.