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Array BioPharma Inc. Message Board

crecy_war_knight 591 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Jan 25, 2007
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  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight Apr 3, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    I know several Big Pharma companies are looking to increase their Rev stream are now looking closer at ACAD. It is within reach of several huge companies. ACAD has the World Wide Rights to a Billion Dollar Drug, it will be the only drug indicated for a terrible condition, PDP. This offers an incredible revenue stream for a potential suitor(s). A company with established distribution channels will turn Nuplazid into a money making machine immediately after the approval. At this point, it seems like the cake is on the table we just have to light the candles. Let us say Nuplazid hits the 1+ Billion Rev within 2-3 yrs if it goes it alone. If you look at a few companies BMRN, ILMN, INCY, VRTX, ALXN, They have an Avg Rev stream of $1.5 Billion, an Avg MK of 20.73 Billion, and an Avg share price of $109/share. I think ACAD share price in 2-3 yr will be well over $100/share. A Buy Out will have to approach that number. Several suitors could be, JNJ(38B cash), PFE (20B cash), MRK (13B cash), SNY(10B cash)- Nuplazid will be the first of it's class into a major CNS market. Nuplazid is also a foot in the door for Alzheimer's Disease (Alzheimer's Agitation) not to mention the cherry on top-Off Label use for the many psychosis conditions thanks to the Amarin Corporation which settled its case with the FDA....which now allows "truthful and non-misleading speech" promoting off-label use -meaning not approved by the FDA. So lets get the lighter out and get ready to blow out the candles.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight May 5, 2016 11:59 PM Flag

    So approx 400,000 PDP patient of which approx 150,000 get treated. In the EU its about 640,000 PDP patients and probably 240,000 of those get treated. So treatment cost $1950/mo, $23,400/yr, To make 1 billion in that yr you need to treat 42,735 patients. So once you get the EU and the USA on board all you need is a 11% penetration. So when will that happen...est EU launch ? 6 mons. Then add 1 yr, so I think by Q4 2017, we might come close to 1 Billion Rev.
    Let us say Nuplazid hits the 1+ Billion Rev. If you look at a few companies BMRN, ILMN, INCY, VRTX, ALXN, They have an Avg Rev stream of $1.5 Billion, an Avg MK of 20.73 Billion, and an Avg share price of $109/share. I think ACAD share price in approx 2 yr will be close to $100/share. A Buy Out will have to approach that number. Several suitors could be, JNJ(38B cash), PFE (20B cash), MRK (13B cash)- Nuplazid is also a foot in the door for Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis & Alzheimer's Agitation not to mention the cherry on top-Off Label use for the many psychosis conditions thanks to the Amarin Corporation which settled its case with the FDA....which now allows "truthful and non-misleading speech" promoting off-label use -meaning not approved by the FDA. The FDA will not be able to stop Off Label use once the doctors get use to the drug and how safe it is.

  • Reply to

    Adam Feuerstein Tweets...Acad rises...

    by cre8tvmynd Apr 14, 2016 10:00 AM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Apr 14, 2016 11:31 AM Flag

    Please don't give that A-ole any credit, he's an opportunist. Many of us longs have been saying that for a few years already. AF jumps on when it is obvious approval is eminent and a Buy Out is on everyone's mind. He's like a broken clock...correct twice a day. His calls are no better than a coin flip. 50% correct. His best days are behind him. Believe me at the first sign of weakness he will jump off the ship and say " I told you so. ". He's an ingrate carpetbagger.

  • Regarding $6Bil or $53 per share Buy Out. " Never make an offer that doesn't thoroughly embarrass you. ". but the other old saying is ..." Always laugh at their first offer. " So here's the game they play...start the rumor of $53 per share...a low ball offer. Then come in at say $65 per share....to make it sound like they are serious....But anyone who can use a calculator knows ACAD will approach 1 Billion in sales once both USA and EU sales come on line for about 1+ years. I am guessing that will be less than 2 yrs from now. Their share price by then should be close to $100+/share. So a Buy Out now will have to value the future sales. $75-85 is a serious offer and will still be a huge bargain for the Buyer.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight May 17, 2016 10:10 AM Flag

    1) BUY OUT- Who knows when this could occur, but it will make your head spin when it hits.
    2) Launch USA Nuplazid in June 2016-June is only 15 days away
    3) AD Psychosis Phase 2 Proof of Concept trial - Enrollment completed Mid 2016,
    4) AD Psychosis Phase 2 Top line data reading out in the Q4 2016
    5) AD Agitation Phase 2 on track to start Q2 2016
    6) EU - Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) - Update pending reg the PIP waiver.

    I don't consider most Presentations a "catalysts " unless news is expected. Please feel free to make other suggests to my list.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight May 9, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    1) BUY OUT- Who knows when this could occur, but it will make your head spin when it hits.
    2) AD Psychosis Phase 2 Proof of Concept trial - Enrollment completed Mid 2016,
    3) AD Psychosis Phase 2 Top line data reading out in the Q4 2016
    4) AD Agitation Phase 2 on track to start Q2 2016
    5) EU - Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) but still waiting for the Pediatric Investigation of Plan (PIP) waiver-this could take 4 mos, but I would bet no longer than 60d to get the waiver. Guessing EU Launch could occur in less than 6mos. Davis will provide updates on this issue.

    I don't consider most Presentations a "catalysts " unless news is expected. Please feel free to make other suggests to my list.

  • Reply to

    Lets play... " FDA decision "

    by crecy_war_knight Apr 15, 2016 9:55 PM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Apr 15, 2016 11:24 PM Flag

    Whatever, its the safest drug and the ONLY drug for the indication of PDP. It won't matter, the FDA will not be able to prevent doctors from using the drug off label once it gets rolling. It's coming down the tracks.... and there's not a dame thing the shorts can do about it.

  • Reply to

    Great Need for NUPLAZID (pimavanserin)

    by ranting1704 Mar 31, 2016 12:17 PM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Mar 31, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    Sorry about your father. It is a terrible condition.

    It is very frustrating for the doctors and nursing staff also due to the lack of good, safe options.I had several patients with various types of dementia. One patient in particular became very combative with his cane towards another patient because he thought the patient was going to kill him. I gave him Seroquel...but it didn't seem to help until the dose was increased and made him sleepy in the day time. He slept most of the day. The nurses tolerated this sedated patient which was easier to deal with than a combative patient. Now we have Nuplazid, it will be a God Send for those patients and their families.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight Apr 23, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    The Maiden and the Cat

    My love but lives an ocean away
    He sails there far today
    I spy a glimpse a dream in his eye
    'Twas a cloudy sky

    My brother is teaching the cat to dance
    How funny that would be
    Meow kicks up and jumps so high
    It rains upon the sea

    But merry old men in books of lore
    Gorge beer upon my floor
    Till my love comes back to me
    A cat is all I see

  • Reply to

    FDA Advisory Committee Vote Outcomes.

    by daviscupper Apr 24, 2016 10:59 AM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Apr 24, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    OK I'll take the 90-95% Approval chance with one side note...the closer we get to May 1, the higher the % of Approval chance. So tomorrow its 95%...Tue 96%...Weds 97%...Thur 98%...Fri 99%....Sat 99.9%. Sun we are going to party like its 1999.

  • Reply to

    Party over

    by biouser62 May 12, 2016 9:39 AM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight May 12, 2016 9:41 AM Flag

    IGNORED

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight May 2, 2016 3:07 PM Flag

    Have longs sold 1 share...NOT ONE, $uck on that Shorty.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight Apr 23, 2016 11:59 AM Flag

    What we will be witnessed to is Transformation. A small risky biotech into a major company with a NEW, ONE OF A KIND, FIRST IN ITS CLASS DRUG that will be the ONLY DRUG INDICATED for a condition, PDP, that rivals most World Wide Epidemics. And ACAD owns the World Wide Rights. The train is about to leave the station.

  • Reply to

    Big Pharm needs ACAD

    by crecy_war_knight Apr 3, 2016 4:19 PM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Apr 4, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    Well, if a BO comes just after approval, it would have to approach $100/share to be seriously considered.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight May 7, 2016 2:37 AM Flag

    Merck CEO: We're on the Hunt for Deals in 2016
    He said Merck may look beyond cancer drugmakers.

    Merck MRK -0.91% CEO Ken Frazier on Thursday emphasized his company’s desire to close significant acquisition and licensing deals this year during an earnings call with investors and reporters.

    “You haven’t seen the deals come through quite yet, but that doesn’t mean that we’re not very, very much engaged in active discussions with” a number of companies, he said.

    The U.S.-based drug giant’s quarterly financial report fell just short of analysts’ revenue expectations despite an impressive haul from new drugs like the cancer immunotherapy blockbuster Keytruda. The slight miss was largely attributed to a difficult sales landscape for some older medications. Merck had revenues of $9.31 billion in Q1 2016, a 1.2% year-over-year drop.

    During Thursday’s call, Goldman Sachs GS -0.43% analyst Jami Rubin pressed Frazier on the possibility of upcoming deals, including the type of investigational drug candidates and companies that Merck may be interested in purchasing. She also raised the fact that biopharma M&As and valuations have cooled down significantly compared to the healthcare deal frenzy of 2014 and 2015.

    Click here to subscribe to our new Brainstorm Health Daily Newsletter.

    “[W]e have a strong balance sheet and we can go after deals across the whole spectrum, early, middle, and late-stage compounds,” Frazier responded.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight Mar 29, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    Discussion- about monitoring AFTER the drug is released....This is telling me they are already on the road to make a FULL APPROVAL.

  • Reply to

    Longs face challenges

    by andrewdude88 Apr 2, 2016 2:22 PM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Apr 2, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    My feeling is if you would have gotten in already you wouldn't be attempting this transparent impotent bash.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight Mar 29, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    Nuplazid is safer than currently used anti- psychotics..... And doesn't worsen the motor function.

  • crecy_war_knight by crecy_war_knight Apr 2, 2016 11:59 AM Flag

    I have a house for sale in Pueblo, Colorado...I kept getting low ball offers. My agent encouraged me to counter offer them, but that didn't help. So I decided to treat these potential buyers like bashers. The next 2 low ball offers I got I told my agent to IGNORE them. Do not counter - in fact don't even answer them. It worked. The next offer was above the sale price. Thank you bashers.

  • Reply to

    Big Pharm needs ACAD

    by crecy_war_knight Apr 3, 2016 4:19 PM
    crecy_war_knight crecy_war_knight Apr 4, 2016 9:52 AM Flag

    After 30 yrs of market experience...I learned just when you think you got it covered the market has a way of making you look foolish. Good luck.

ARRY
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