AF refuses to ask the CEO about the "missing " 24 patients at the Qrept. This is because he knows its a non-issue and he will look like a fool to ask such a dumb question at the Qrept.
Some admitted short, Z.P. , wrote a hit piece about the drug not working at 120mg and a follow up by AF writing about "missing" 24 patients and their data. AF didn't have much effect. Its all garbage and longs know it. The stock was fairly high anyway so many weak hands sold. Allowing the stronger hands to scoop up a ton of cheap shares. There are some links on the MB.
not sure if already posted
All studies remove patients from data collection when they don't meet the guidelines of the studies. Everyone knows AF is a shill for the shorts. The FDA already went over all the data like last year. And there were no major issues. This article is to help the shorts get out at a lower price. AF is losing his touch anyway. He got beat out of this article buy another admitted short on Twitter. AF you better start doing your homework, stop wasting your time on Twitter or Zach will take your job.
What you are missing is discipline & focus. What is your strategy (which has a lot to do with how much money you have, income, age, market knowledge, experience etc.) Answer those questions and then and only then should you enter the market. And remember never invest money you can not afford to lose. One of the easiest ways to get into the market is to simply buy mutual funds...eg, the VTI-the total stock market. Or if you really want biotech...buy the IBB- the biotech ETF(there are others). But buy on a sell off day. A RED DAY. Once you have the questions and knowledge, do some "pretend " investments. Get some experience. Read some books. Learn Technical Analysis - Candlesticks, its not perfect, but I find it helps me make buy-sell decisions. Learn how to use the Yahoo charts to learn patterns. Watch Cramer, everyone hates him, but he does explain how big companies do business. He is not good with small biotechs. GL
Every study uses SELECTIVE EXCLUSION when patients don't meet STUDY CRITERIA.
Patients get excluded from studies all the time. The ITI007 P2 data list 335 randomized, 311 were then included in the study. 24 excluded for several reasons mentioned in the study. I get AF's point - he wanted more details about the exclusion of those 24. These patients were excluded due to invalid baseline measurement, some withdrew from the study prior to getting data. To me this is not unusual, happens all the time in every study. Now I get his point, there was a listing of 8 who were excluded from the 60mg arm , but at some point further on the poster it list 17. So there is something that should be clarified , so maybe someone will ask about it at the Q rept. AF claims 24 patient data is "missing". I am sure the CEO can explain it AGAIN and the short shills will not accept it.
" The patients did not have a valid baseline measurement of schizophrenia symptoms, or patients withdrew from the study before their schizophrenia symptoms could be measured following their first treatment."
This poster re-hash on a Friday - to help shorts cover at a lower price. Shorts holding over the weekend can be a tad risky. 24 patients "missing" doesn't seem to have much punch.
EPS...-xx cents ...CEO search ....possible Davis or Soland will be new CEO....NDA...." On Tract for 2 H "15. That's it. I think no major news reg NDA. .
Outside chance to annouce ...Ready for submission of NDA....New CEO is Mr/MS...former CEO of a well known Biotech that will take it to approval. ...Partnership with XXX , a huge Biotech. ......
Since there is nothing fundamentally wrong, this drop seems like normal cycling , from Over Bought to Over Sold.
Estimating the number of persons effected by psychosis (= delusions + hallucinations) is difficult due to the "" perceived stigma patients could face so they prefer not to divulge.
Conservative peak risk-adjusted 2027 pimavanserin PDP revenue estimate by LEERINK (based on 45% share of PD antipsychotic use) is of $1.3B (US excl ROW)
à Specialists with whom Leerink spoke are optimistic on pimavanserin’s prospects in ADP and more importantly, most plan to use the drug off-label in AD and psychotic dementia once it is approved in PDP, largely due to its relatively cleaner safety profile
Patent expiry is expected in 2028 so ACAD has 12+ blockbuster patent life.
Schizophrenia (approval potentially in 2020) and ROW sales are all upside
Given the scarcity value of a novel CNS drug that is safe and effective, ACAD could be a likely takeout target. CNS companies are full of “me too” depression drugs with generic competition – there is no sector of Big Pharma more in need of acquiring a blockbuster differentiated safe and effective blockbuster with long patent life.
Recent stumble with NDA delay and CEO departure may make institutions like Baker Brothers and Fidelity more likely to sell even before approval. "" - (This last remark about BB selling I don't agree with-this is an older post. I would be very surprised if after holding this for a long time the BB sell and miss out on huge profits. This must have been written just after the last delay. I believe Pima has about 95% chance of being approved FAST. )