$4 or $14? ....Now in April it did get down to $15+ BRIEFLY. But that's it. It jumped right back to close about $18. You only get those opportunities ONCE. So I take it you're out at this point. As far as re-visiting the teens...I wish it would , not entirely impossible, but as each day goes by it will be harder and harder for that to happen. As it stays at any one level, it will tend to build Support. So good luck with trying to get back in at your number, but I think you missed the boat. This is why a wise ACAD trader, doesn't cash in ALL his/her shares...they have CORE HOLDINGS and some TRADING SHARES. Congrats on that great trade (wink) at $28, but if you are gonna wait till $4 or $14...you will NEVER get back in.
I don't own any shares, but I think the low is in and hopefully up manana. The drug will not be a BlockBuster, but it shows the true value of the company - AFREZZA VALIDATES THE TECHNOLOGY. You'll most likely get your money back. I wouldn't sell and LOCK IN YOUR LOSSES.
Using Candlestick numbers approx $11.50 and $4.50 I got a Full Fib retrace of $ 7.23. Todays range so far,7.22 - 8.27.
So for "fun" I calculated a full Fib Retrace ( 61%)using a bottom of $5.25 and a top of $11(line chart) and I got $7.49, its already past that so you might be looking at the bottom. Gonna check the candlestick numbers.
GREAT COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS, LOW OUTSTANDING SHARES, a TON OF CASH, NO DEBT, a NEW DRUG PROVEN SAFE & EFFECTIVE, a ONE OF A KIND DRUG ,FIRST IN ITS CLASS DRUG that will be THE ONLY INDICATION for a severe disease, FDA ALREADY REVIEWED PHASE 3 data and gave the thumbs up for a NDA - on deck.
1 Million PD patients in the USA only. 40% will develop PDP at some point, some say less. OK, what ? 20%, But i still don't see the "losing bet".., PDP is late stage for PD patients. A fair % that get started on the drug will remain on the drug- its safe and effective. So the number of patients will be accumulative. The number will grow every year. Besides for the first year or so you don't expect to see full penetration of the drug in the PDP " market ". I am thinking first Q maybe 10-20% penetration. So (cost of the drug for 90days) x (0.2) x (total number of patients with PDP) = $ for first Q, subsequent formulas will see a spike in the penetration. Lets say it's 20,000 patients total this year (kinda like a worst case scenario, pick the lowest number ) that need Rx. So 1st Q, 20,000 x 0.2(20% penetration) = 4000 patients x ( drug cost for 90days) = total sales for 1st Q. So the key here is what will the drug cost. Lets say cost is $ 30/day. So 4000 patients x 90 days x $30/day =
$10.8 MILLION...1stQ. Thats approx what I would expect. $10-20 mill for the 1st Q. Now as each Q rolls by the penetration will dramatically rise. Now if we are talking 2-400,000 patients...well I can't count that high. The EU has about 1.6 Million PD patients, you could consider maybe another 600,000 that will need treatment at some point.
Its one thing to not have the number on hand ( and why not?) , but its another thing to make a lame excuse. He should be fired, he really looks incompetent.
Look the point is the drug is NOT a block buster...it will not have ginormous sales - the value of this drug is the validation of the technology- not a drug that might get sales of 1% of the diabetic market.
Oh they will get some money from sales, but it will be DISAPPOINTING SALES. They will be lucky to get 1% of the diabetic market.
1) Issuing too many shares 2) Most likely they had little insight of the current drug competition in the Diabetic Rx market. Unrealistic projections of 10% of the diabetic market ( that will never happen and could be grounds for a CLASS ACTION ) 3) Poor response to Shareholder Value. 4) Poor execution to releasing a new drug 5) Building too much debt 6) Poor choice in Partnership. .....etc etc etc....
This company took the first offer they could hook and it turned out to be $150 million. Because chances are they know this drug will be a tough sell. The chances of them ever seeing that other $775 Mil is nil. But at least they got some cash and can look forward to a few other milestone payments...but it will never be $775, never. Too much competition, new insulin Pens are out, insurance Co Pay's will be HIGH for this new product and you are looking at maybe 1-3% of the diabetic population will ever get a prescription for this med. So perhaps the company can move on to the next product. The really big negative here is this stock has created a TON of BAGHOLDERS....over and over this stock has disappointed and now a ton of investors are underwater. They may NEVER get their money back.