Does it look like the margin call selling is over? If so, why has the price not rebounded. I must say that the insider buying is the biggest I've seen in years in this stock, seemingly a bullish move. Reality is that they are still losing money and it's pretty hard to see how and when they will turn this around. Best thing they ever did was hedge at higher oil prices. Without that, disaster! Part of me wants to believe that this can turn up from a $1 stock and recover with the new management, but I think these guys have so destroyed the company's name that few people or companies want to be involved. Their debt is like a cancer slowly eating away at them. Failure at RU-9 was the nail in the coffin. Anchorage managers need to be held accountable!
When one considers the 600 BOD oil, you can't forget that Badami is losing money on those 600 BOD...Break even is probably $75/barrel...Can we afford to lose $6,000 - $10,000 a day while we wait for an ice road to be built? Further, where do we get the $30M to drill next summer? People keep focusing on the oil being produced without being realistic about the price!
probably has to do with tax consequences if they had to owe $100M+ on the gains they had previously recorded... Don't want to be in a position of owing Uncle Sam money...He goes to the front of the list!
I believe that the selling is two fold. Independent of the price of oil, Miller has been a complete CF since Jan 2014. Their inability to reach and produce any oil from everything they've drilled this year has been a disaster. The promise of "two weeks" was repeated so often, it became the replacement words for the boy who cried wolf. Announcing that RU-9 was producing 100 barrels a day was my wake up call to get out. I strongly suspect that I was not alone. Now, add in the collapse in oil prices and you see why we trade under $2. I have almost zero expectations that they can survive. The cost of managing the debt and failure to find new oil has been a brutal combination. RU-9 failure was the tipping point and the drop in oil prices pushed this over the edge. Prices will not rebound to $110. Hedged 90%? Great....can't find 750-1,000 barrels of oil, then they're done, game over. It's just a matter of time.
As for any hopes on Badami, you must face reality. Badami won't start drilling probably until March or April. Add 90 days if all goes well and you won't see oil until mid to late summer. Does Miller survive another 7-8 months without new oil and declining reserves? Can they afford to spend $20-30 to drill Badami? State of Alaska does not reimburse for any expenses drilling Badami.
Frankly, I don't see survival. Feel like I dodged an IED....
Invisible hand, if there is a pullback in the market for whatever reason, wouldn't standard reasoning say that Treasuries would rally as money leaves equities? I'm long TLT options expecting a decline in the stock market. Not sure how a $5 drop in oil affects the market...good for consumers who will have more cash to spend but horrible for the economies of states that are big oil producers and associated oil production/patch companies...
Your thoughts appreciated...
coleman, there may be more oil in Cook Inlet but it needs to be found while Miller is still a viable venture. They need to drastically cut costs until they can find more production , otherwise they will be joining the ranks of all of the other companies who have occupied the Osprey platform and failed...The only possibility I see of increased production until badami (which is more than 6 mos away) is if they can rework RU-9 and get some reasonable flow out of it. At $3, it's not just me concerned about Miller surviving. And yes, I did sell 2/3's of my original position, until I sold more today. So if you bought my shares at $3.33, you're up 8 cents, congrats!
You are on drugs!!!!! Miller's portion will be 600 barrels a day and with a steady, reliable drop. New drilling won't start till April. WHERE are you going to get 1500 - 2000 barrels from????
As I said many times before, Miller was in a good position with Kustatan facilities. All they really need/needed was for Apache, Hilcorp or Miller to find significant oil in Cook Inlet. Had any of those 3 entities found oil in sufficient quantities, then the processing facilities at Kustatan would be running full bore and be very valuable. At that point, it would have been reasonable to expect a buyout offer from one of the two previously mentioned companies. The dearth of good drilling news is not limited to Miller. Neither Apache nor Hilcorp has found anything of significance. I guess Chevron was right all along. RU-9 may have been an exception if they hadn't f'd up the well! Can it be resurrected? That's why this stock isn't $1 today...Oil and gas are trickling in to help with income but Miller is still bleeding money and they need to FIND oil and gas. Buccaneer is dead. RU-9 has been a CF and Badami is at least 6 months away from drilling. SO WHERE IS THE INCOME GOING TO COME FROM?????
If I spent $400 M to build a grain silo in the heart of downtown Manhattan and had no grain to store in it, it would be worthless. Miller owns a nice property in Kustatan. Unless Miller, Apache or Hilcorp find oil and need those facilities, they are as valuable as an empty grain silo in Manhattan! I was hoping during these past several years that SOMEONE would find oil in Cook Inlet and need Miller's facilities....sadly, so far, no major finds. So, in closing, the $400 M number you quote, even in the worst recent oil price time period, is dependent on someone finding oil in nice quantities. So far, it hasn't happened. Maybe soon, maybe not . At this point , it's potential promise....
Can anyone give us an estimate on when they expect oil to flow? I'm still stuck on the June announcement if "3 wells being drilled" Were all 3 busts? Seriously, what happened out there??? Nearly 6 months overdue? What do you think, let's praise David Halls efforts again and give him hundreds of thousands of additional options? This is one big CF!
And to think that last Christmas we thought we would now be at 5,000 to 6,000 barrels a day....guess that's what we are at $3 instead of $9
I am thankful that they finally addressed the RU-9 issues. They needed to do this publicly before the AGM. Though we don't know what happened, it seems from the press release that they damaged the well in the course of drilling and needed to go back and they redrilled the two zones again. I still have 1/3 of my original position but with a cost average of $6.50, I'm going to need a gusher to get to break even! Brawley's departure is worrisome. If RU-9 is a total failure, which I think is not yet known at this time, Brawley will have made the right decision. If they can resurrect the well, all may be....well?
Though I do like options, I have never traded MILL options ..THANK GOD!
No, I was selling shares I've purchased over the past 3 years...Right now, my remaining share average is $6.50....As you might surmise, I bought all the way down from $8's last december when everything looked beautiful! Oh well....
Oh Ted, I'm a very real shareholder who has lost a great deal of money (real money, not paper profits) based on management's failure to deliver timelines and results. Yes, I'm willing to give the new guy some time but I'm still unsure how much power he has with an "Executive Chairman" still above him.....That said, where are the updates and drilling results? Why the bonuses and options for Those who oversee this drilling fiasco?