I'm posting this FOR THE THIRD FRACKING TIME BECAUSE THE FRELLING BAT GUANO GENIUSES AT YAHOO KEEP DELETING MY POSTS. COME ON YAHOO MORONS -- DELETE THIS!!!!!!
Search on "Marketwatch beverage webinar" for a 10-DEC article. Go to premeirbrandsinc website for more details & registration info. Costs $450 but may be well worth the price if you're planning on dumping more bucks into PLSB or any other small bev company in the near future. I'd rather lose $450 on a webinar than $4500 on a bad investment.
Webinar starts at 2:00 pm EST, Wednesday 18-DEC.
I just left you a nice detailed post on this subject & Yahoo DELETED IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Too tired to retype it tonight. Try searching on "beverage agreements", you'll see some sample agreements. Also search on "cirtran play beverages LLC", you'll find a detailed sample manufacturing, marketing & distribution agreement.
To get an idea as to competitiveness within the bev industry go to bevnet website (if I spelled it all out, Yahoo would delete this post).
And exactly why do you care? You don't even own the stock! I know your question wasn't meant to stimulate any serious discussions, but I'll answer it anyway.
Did it ever occur to you that the bev biz may be highly-competitive? As a hypothetical competitor, I would most certainly be interested in the details of PLSB's agreements, especially data regarding shipping schedules. Such information would help me refine shipping scheds so my product is placed on store shelves first. Other info may help me to better coordinated advertising campaigns and target certain areas where I know stores are waiting for their next shipment of PLSB product. It a store is temporarily sold out of Cabana, that's an opportunity for me to crank up advertising in that particular area.
Just a thought.
CORRECTION: Typo in 3rd para: " ... 11.85 cases per mo. / 30 dys. per mo. = 0.4 cases per week"
Should read: = 0.4 cases per DAY.
From 2013 Q2 10-Q, Item Two, 4th para, last sentence: "We expect our Natural Cabana� brand to reach the annualized one million cases threshold by the end of 2013."
A one-million case (Cabana) threshold means shipping about 83K cases/mo. By the end of Q2 mgmt. claimed 14,000 listings. Given that there's a lag time between securing listing and actual sales, let's say only half (7,000) of those stores had product on the shelves through Q2. So how many cases must each store sell on average to meet an 83K monthly forecast?
83,000 per mo. / 7,000 stores = 11.85 cases per store per month. 11.85 cases per mo. / 30 dys. per mo. = 0.4 cases per week. There are 12 bottles per case, so 0.4 case comes out to about 5 bottles; that's five bottles on average per store per day.
Mgmt. focused on listings in major metro areas with high-volume traffic where 5 bottles a day per store is a slam-dunk -- just a few regular buyers will grab that much! Even two or three curious buyers walking down the aisle browsing would pick up that many bottles in a day -- and that's with just HALF of their listings producing.
My point: reaching an annualized one million case threshold by end of 2013 was, in fact, a very reasonable forecast based on sound reasoning given the sales data at that time. Everyone seems to fault the forecast but that wasn't the problem.
So why the big miss? The best number so far for 2013 was126K cases in Q2 (42K cases/mo) or about half of forecast. Q3 already came in at 93K and Q4 probably a below that due to seasonality. PLSB claimed 17,000 listings by end of Q3 but it's beginning to look as if fewer than half are currently producing. Remember: a new setting is going to be slow to sell without advertising. People need to know it's there -- THAT's the problem.
We know that Cabana is selling well based on improving YOY results. Pulse bev needs aggressive local advertising in EACH new store -- people need to know the product exists.
I made that comment because your beliefs, though very commendable, seemed unsubstantiated and, frankly, often came off as plain ol' cheer leading, IMO. That's why I referred to your posts as being "corny" and suspected you were a Baldy alias trying to play both sides. Since you were kind enough to respond to my outright insult, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt & assume you're legit.
Re. PLSB: I'm basically in your camp but remain guarded in my expectations; a lot hangs on sales taking off in Q1 & Q2, especially for the Functional bevs (have you tried those?). In the 2013-Q3 10-Q they alluded to sales being down due to unexpected delays in getting placements set up. Given how quickly they've added new listings, it does make one wonder exactly what percentage are actually producing right now? If this is simply a backup / logjam type of problem which will self-correct in the coming months, then I'd feel better.
If you believe they'll do very well next year, then state some specifics that lead you to that conclusion, I'll share some of mine in another post.
I know of only one poster who constantly pumped this stock -- jane7777777 -- and I believe "she" was another Baldy alias; her posts were too corny to be believable even for a pumper. Metro & Ron just liked the products & seemed to be typical posters. But "I_have_no_pulse" conveniently shows up in MAY-2013 right at the last top. You haven't posted ANYTHING under this alias in the past three months, but out buddy Baldy was certainly busy, LOL.
And just for the record: PLSB price as NEVER seen $0.20 and they're doing far better today in terms of YOY sales than they were a year ago.
I expect Cabana sales will be seasonally weak going into Q4 & Q1 next year but an improvement over Q4-2012 & Q1 2013. If they can't pull that off then the product isn't selling despite the expanding list of new listings, so be it. However, product-acceptance is a known risk which is clearly stated in the 10-Q's & 10-K's. The initial roll-out of the functional bevs appears to have gotten off to a decent start but it's too soon to know for certain how well they'll do. THOSE are the sales I'm watching because the functional bevs are their flagship products.
As this is a thinly-traded issue, it doesn't take too many traders to push the price one way or another. Maybe it will go to $0.20, maybe it will go back up to $0.60, who knows? You sure don't -- blowhard. Why don't you and your 16 different personalities go back to trolling the JSDA board.
You've become so desperate you need to dig up my old posts, LOL Your posts have degraded (even for you) to childish babbling & insults, how sad. So ------ how many shares did you buy this a.m.?
Re. "... cabana tumbled in case count sequentially ..."
What a pathetic lie! Cabana has been selling in volume only since Q3-2012. 2013 is actually the first full year of production & volume distribution. JSDA is a MATURE company selling soda-pop, a product typically consumed year round, Cabana is a seasonal product with swings is quarterly sales (the SEC filings clearly state this fact), that's why they show YOY sales.
Cabana YOY sales have increased over EVERY quarter. PLSB shipped 10K cases of Cabana in 2011, 227K cases in 2012 and 296K cases in the first 9-mo. of 2013. Even if they manage a paltry 50K for cases off-season Q4, that would still come out to a total of 350K cases for 2013.
Go back to the JSDA board, I'm sure they need some cheering up after their 32% loss this past month.
Bald & Boring,
Forgot to add: just noticed JSDA (as in Jones Soda) dropped 32% over the past month! You seem to be conspicuously absent from that board of late. I think the last post to your loyal followers was something about $0.59 - $0.60 being a good place to buy. Oh, did I mention that JSDA is a MATURE company selling product through an extensive national distribution network while PLSB is still in the process of building theirs?
It remains to be seen whether or not PLSB will take off but their YOY sales data look solid and their distribution network is growing AS PLANNED. The stock is oversold IMO and I can see some buyers slowly coming back after the holidays. Not likely to trade much above $0.55 area IMO until next batch of sales data comes out.
Regarding JSDA: it's clearly evident they're on life support and the next couple of Q's are going to be make or break for them.
Hairless and Hopeless,
But buying your oft recommended Jones Soda is an example of the PROPER allocation of capital? Talk about a "guaranteed unsuccessful venture", here are just a few choice quotes from their recent Q3 10-Q:
"We may require additional financing to support our working capital needs in the future."
Remember, this is a mature company, not a start-up. They're barely generating enough sales to pay the bills for now.
"Although we believe various debt and equity financing alternatives will be available to us to support our working capital needs, new debt or equity financing arrangements may not be available to us when needed on acceptable terms, if at all. Additionally, these alternatives may require significant cash payments for interest and other costs or could be highly dilutive to our existing shareholders."
"... or could be highly dilutive to our share holders ... ". SAY WHAT?!! Isn't this one of the things you keep bashing on about with Pulse Bev?
"Any such financing alternatives may not provide us with sufficient funds to meet our long-term capital requirements. If necessary, we may explore strategic transactions that we consider to be in the best interest of us and our shareholders, which may include, without limitation, public or private offerings of debt or equity securities, a rights offering, and other strategic alternatives; however, these options may not ultimately be available or feasible. "
In other words: Jones may have to issue more stock to raise cash. Uh, wouldn't that be shareholder DILUTION? And now [cue drum roll please], my favorite quote: "The uncertainties relating to our ability to successfully execute our 2013 Turnaround Plan, combined with the difficult financing environment, continue to raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern."
Yup, I can see why you like JSDA -- a total loser company for total penny stock pumper/basher losers like you.
What to watch for going forward.
Forget Cabana! That was their start-up product. YOY sales doing well despite mgmts. gaff at missing forecasts. Cabana YOY sales will increase in the coming Q's but revenues from one seasonal product line are just enough to keep the doors open & pay the bills for now . The REAL kicker is the roll-out of the Pulse Functional Drinks back in May -- this is their flagship product. Need to keep an eye on growing sales & acceptance.
As total revenues pick up, more $$ will go into advertising; mgmt. stated in the 10-Q that advertising budgets are allocated in proportion to sales -- the more you sell, the more you can afford to advertise. I think we're at least 18 - 24 months away from any substantive national advertising effort. Just look at what Coke & Pepsi spend per year on advertising relative to revenues, it gets expensive. I suspect Pulse will deploy their advertising $$ on a regional / urban basis where the most sales can be generated.
Is this why you've been buying? You're not fooling me! Why would anyone waste their time coming on this board bashing the company just to help "educate" shareholders about what a terrible mistake they've made? I also suspect he was quietly selling throughout the summer while bashing all the way down. Because of low average daily trading volumes it doesn't take much to drop a low-priced stock when buyers are in short supply.
Major holders took profits & left a long time ago. They slowly legged their way out 500 - 1,000 shares at a time over the summer to keep price from dropping like a rock, it was a slow steady decline. Yes, the stock dropped 39% from mid-July to mid_November but it took four months to unfold -- hardly panic selling.
Before Q3 10-Q was released PLSB had been forming a base in the $0.67 - $0.74 area for about a month -- that's about what I'd consider the closest thing to fair-value based on current sales.
The Investopedia website tells us:
"The price-to-sales ratio can vary substantially across industries; therefore, it's useful mainly when comparing similar companies. Because it doesn't take any expenses or debt into account, the ratio is somewhat limited in the story it tells. "
"As powerful a valuation metric as the P/S ratio may be, it would be a mistake for investors to put all their stock price valuation eggs in one basket. However, the P/S ratio does provide another perspective that complements the other valuation indicators - particularly the P/E ratio - and is a worthwhile addition to an investor's stock analysis toolbox."
If a company has no meaningful P/E ratio, why should we hang our hats on the PSR? These ratios were NEVER intended to be used as stand-alone indicators of value. Nuff said!
For now, the only way to valuate a company like PLSB is to analyze what people are willing to pay for it -- plain and simple. But penny stock prices can be all over the map due to momentum players and pumpers; you have to find a period of price stability; a period where some kind of trading range is established. In this case we saw that range pretty much throughout 2012 -- 45-cents to 60-cents.
But that's 45 to 60-cents based on 2012 sales of 227K cases of Cabana; for 2013, we're looking at 366K cases (296K already sold through Q3 + 70K est. for Q4). For now, seems reasonable that the Q4 off-season sales will be about the same as Q1, which was 77K; that turns out to be a 60% YOY increase in sales.
Even if the trading range reflected just half of that increase (30%), we should be trading in the $0.58 - $0.78 range next year, or until new sales data comes in. If we fail to maintain these sales, obviously the price is going to drop more. I think realistic sales growth (not those over-optimistic forecasts) will be on track through out 2014. Remember: mgmt. IS on track with their listing count.
From 2012-Q2 10-Q: "Sales increased 154% Q2 over Q1. We expect a similar increase in sales during Q3-2012." Q2 gross revenue was $956K
From 2012-Q3 10-Q: Gross revenue was 846K -- their first big miss on sales projections, but not a big deal since they were not into full production at that time. One could forgive their exuberance back then. However they also came out with this: "We estimate, based on large grocery and convenience store chain listings approved to date and probable listings from discussions in progress, by March 2013, sales of Cabana™ will reach 1,000,000 cases on an annualized basis and 2013 sales are estimated to be over 2,000,000 cases, in total, based on what we know today. " 2012-Q3 10-Q is the first place where these statements began showing up
This doesn't mean they will ship 1,000,000 cases in 2013, it means they expect sales to start hitting in the 250K case / quarter area some time in 2013. Their best quarter in 2013 turned out to be Q2 @ 126K cases -- about half of prediction. I doubt 2013-Q4 will see 75K cases of Cabana due because it's off-season in much of N. America.
From 2013-Q2 10-Q: "We expect the remainder of 2013 revenues for both products to INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY due to timing of shipments into our distribution system and the increased number of regional and national chain and convenience store listings secured for Natural Cabana® Lemonade and the rollout of PULSE® into many of the same stores. [caps added]"
"Increase significantly"? Well, not compared to Q3 sales of only 93K cases, but compared to Q3 of 2012, yes, sales did increase -- by 24%. Not too shabby but not what I'd call "significant" either -- +50% would be significant IMO. Once again, we can't rely too much on Q-to-Q sales of Cabana as it's a seasonal product (this is clearly stated in the annual report).
Re. the 2M total cases for 2013: currently at 533K. See next post --
"Most recent "analyst's" sales forecasts are: 2013 = $3.74mm; 2014 = $8.84mm."
WHAT analysts are you referring to, yourself ??
What management actually said (from last annual report 10-K): "We expect 2013 revenues to be significantly higher than 2012 ..." They sold a total of 227K cases of Cabana in 2012 and 296K cases through Q3 this year. Based on Q1 off-season sales of 77K, I'd say expect at least 50K for Q4. That would put us at 346K cases for 2013 -- A 52% INCREASE IN ANNUAL SALES OVER 2012!! . I'd say that was pretty good performance for an early-stage emerging start-up company.
Assuming $10/case revenue (the figure Baldy used, I think it may be closer to $11): 346K cases = $3,460,000 projected revenue for 2013 -- close enough for me.
Here's how Cabana case sales rolled out over the past three Q's: Q1=77K, Q2=126K, Q3=93K and Q4 I estimated conservatively at 50K cases. Cabana is a seasonal product (they tell you that in the "Risk" section), so the Q-to-Q numbers can vary quite a bit, that's why they use YTD figures for their comparisons, most companies do that.
OBTW: it would be a good exercise for everyone to read the "Risk Factors" section (Item 1A) in the 10K annual report. Pulse Bev management is very upfront about the risks associated with investing in this type of company, nothing is hidden from view.
Go to the" Net Sales" section of the 3/13 10K. Mgmt. was projecting a total of 3 million cases of Cababa to be sold by end of 2013. This estimate was based on "secured and targeted listings to date". I think there was an expectation these listings would start producing immediately but that doesn't seem to be happening since, according to Q3 report, they only clocked 295,000 cases of Cabana so far for 2013. Pulse Bev. seems to be on target regarding getting new listings (17,000 so far), but way off on sales. The question is why?
Baldy says mgmt "pumped" their estimate to sell stock. Frankly, there are far better ways to pump a stock than hiding a one-line statement deep inside a 10K report, LOL. How about we use a little common sense, eh Baldy?
Just for fun let's imagine that Pulse was at least close to their -target with, say, 2-million cases delivered by end of Q3: what would that be per store given 17,000 listings? 3,000,000 / 17,000 = 118 cases (approx) per store over a 9-month period; that comes out to 118 / (9 x 4) = 3.3 cases per week per store. Given that most of these stores are in high-traffic urban areas, selling just 3 cases a week seems conservatively reasonable to me, even for off-season sales. Even if only HALF of he listings had product on the shelf throughout the first three quarters, Pulse STILL would have sold at least 1,000,000 case of Cabana over that period.
That tells me the 3,000,000 cases wasn't some pumpy pie-in-the-sky figure like Baldy claims, but a reasonable ESTIMATE!. So what happened? YOY data tells us that the product is, in fact, selling; if it wasn't, sales numbers would never have gotten to even 295,000 cases.
I think there's a LONG lag time between securing a listing and getting product on the shelf, way longer than what mgmt. had anticipated. See tlast sentence of the Q3 Net Sales section: "... centralized purchasing for large grocery and convenience store chains ... delays in product placement."
To the Happy Moron,
Listen up you mindless twit!! You asked me if I could move a 9-ton block. I said I could and proceeded to show you how. And that's just ONE way. You said nothing about weight / height restrictions; never the less, a person of far lesser stature could do this job -- it might take a little longer, that's all.
Leedskalnin didn't use this method? SO WHAT, WHO CARES? He used some other method, what's your point? Who gives a rat's anal orifice HOW it was done! The fact is it CAN be done and HAS been done for thousands of years. There's nothing mysterious about it -- except to ignorant uneducated people like you who substitute pseudo- science and stupid conspiracy theories in place of real science because you're TOO LAZY to go out and get a real education.
Maybe he used the Stargate to borrow technology from the Aasgard. Have you ever considered that, huh? Did you know the Air Force ran a super-secret program under Cheyenne Mountain for over ten years. That's where all the Stargate teams embarked to other planets. I know this is true because I watch them every week on TV for ten years. Oh, and let's not forget the Lost City of Atlantis located in the Pegasus Galaxy.
I didn't realize there were mental institutions that actually allowed their residents to use the internet. Don't forget to take your meds before going to the TV room tonight.