I've been long since last Jan, it's my second biggest position 71% return. I'll sell 1/2 at 19-20, hold the rest for 25-27. I think this stock is still cheap, and I've started to see the four door Fiats on the street. Volume has been huge past seven days.
Even if you get $1.50 what's your target $18 -$19. Single digit growth with potential secular, cyclical and regulatory headwinds.
Compliance costs come in at 3.5% to 4.5% of revenue, add the price cuts from last year, and subtract the restructuring. 2014 brings flat income growth and fewer share repurchases with the potential of downside surprise. Good luck, I piled my WU capital into regional banks.
won't cover you when it gets down to $14 range. T/A looks terrible below 200dma doom cross on the way, weekly trend broken.
2014 "no longer expects growth in operating profit" -0.90% -2.75% -4.88% -0.46% and there is your last 4 Qs of revenue growth.
The CFO takes a fresh look and gives crummy 2014 guidance. Bitcoin, google wallet, mobile payments, paypal erode sales. Compliance costs rise, pricing cuts destroy margin expansion. This is a fine company and all, free cash, low debt, but I see better risk reward in regional banks (UBCI, STI, FITB, BANF) Insurance companies (XL, ACE, TRV) or select industrials (BA, PCP, ITW, ROG) or even FLT over WU in the next 12 months.
I'm selling my last longs into any rebound or a close below the 200 dma based on the higher compliance costs, slowing earnings growth, credit downgrade, and the potential for second guidance downgrade.
Declining earnings growth, compliance costs, mobile payment systems, bitcoin, price decreases. I don't hate this stock I'd just rather move more money into industrials (ITW, PCP, ROG) or Regional Banks (FITB, UBCI, STI, KEY, RF) or real growth FLT.