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CVR Refining, LP Message Board

criticalthinker0227 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 9, 2015 9:33 AM Member since: Nov 19, 2009
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  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Feb 9, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    $0.35 beats by $.06! Total Investment income of $15.86M (+586.6% Y/Y) beats by $2.46M
    Monthly distributions are now on the horizon.

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Feb 5, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    LINN Energy announced today that the Fort Worth Regional Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") has formally notified LINN that the SEC has closed its inquiry and does not intend to recommend any enforcement action against the company.

    "After a thorough and lengthy process, we are clearly very pleased with this excellent outcome," said Mark E. Ellis, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.

    On July 1, 2013, LINN and LinnCo voluntarily disclosed the SEC's informal inquiry. LINN and LinnCo cooperated fully with the SEC during its inquiry.

  • Reply to

    Why the big moves here the last couple days ?

    by britash9090 Jan 27, 2015 10:44 AM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 27, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Also looks like institutional buying is underway.

  • Reply to

    Why the big moves here the last couple days ?

    by britash9090 Jan 27, 2015 10:44 AM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 27, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Just a wild guess, but perhaps many believe crude's price has bottomed and so has oil demand, for the next year or two.

  • Reply to

    anyone holding

    by srbsrb27 Jan 14, 2015 12:01 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 14, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Yes. LGCY is second largest holding and no plans to sell regardless of short term WTI price. In fact, no plans to sell regardless of long term price either, because of a high confidence level in management.

    We're obviously in an oil war with Russia, Iran, and Venezuela and even if LGCY goes to Zero, there will be no regrets as long as the Russian Dictator is defeated on the field of battle. Some things are more important than any stock price.

  • Reply to

    Sensitivity Analysis by Alpha Wolf

    by criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 12:22 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    mjh nailed it in my opinion. LINE might even suspend the distribution entirely and use the proceeds to reduce its' current $10Billion in Debt by $1Billion per year. LINE is our largest holding and I'd be okay with that scenario for two years, if it meant the company would be stronger at the end of this oil war, when crude prices will begin to rise again. My assumption is that this Saudi War on Russia and Iran will last at least through all of 2015. Seems the West pushed the Panic Button when they finally realized Putin is another Hitler, intent upon taking over former satellite states, and would not stop unless stopped by an outside force.

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Has anyone created a Sensitivity Analysis showing estimated DCFlow per Unit under various WTI and $/Mcf natural gas scenarios for CY 2015 and perhaps 2016 as well? If so, please share the results with us!

    Good Luck to All Longs and Happy New Year!

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    The subject document on Seeking Alpha indicates that in 2015, with WTI at $60, LINE doesn't begin to cover the $2.90 distribution until Nat Gas is at least $4.00/mcf (not likely).
    With Nat Gas at $3.00, the distribution isn't covered until WTI is at $70 (not likely).
    One likely scenario for 2015 is WTI $50 & Nat Gas $3.50 when DCF per unit is estimated at $2.86.

    The article also gives estimated Discounted Cash Flows Per Unit for 2016, 2017, and 2018 at various pricing scenarios as hedges fall off.

    Happy New Year and good luck to all Longs

  • Reply to

    Oil rigs shutting down, good news.

    by shawn.pokorski Dec 29, 2014 4:18 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 29, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    shawn,
    No doubt you are correct and LGCY's management seemed to say as much during their last Conference Call. However, many are predicting oil won't bottom in price until Q2, 2015 and it wouldn't surprise me to see LGCY's common shares in single digits by then. This wonderful company is our second largest position, but I'd gladly lose it all if the USA can defeat Dictator Putin and secure his exit from Ukraine.

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Dec 29, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    A number of pros have predicted oil prices won't bottom until Quarter 2, 2015. We're in a long term struggle with Dictator Putin and it wouldn't surprise me to see LINN in the mid single digits by then. Unfortunately, it's the largest holding in our portfolio, but I'm willing to lose it all if we can defeat Russia and stop their aggression.

CVRR
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