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Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Message Board

criticalthinker0227 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 27, 2015 12:25 PM Member since: Nov 19, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Why the big moves here the last couple days ?

    by britash9090 Jan 27, 2015 10:44 AM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 27, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Also looks like institutional buying is underway.

  • Reply to

    Why the big moves here the last couple days ?

    by britash9090 Jan 27, 2015 10:44 AM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 27, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Just a wild guess, but perhaps many believe crude's price has bottomed and so has oil demand, for the next year or two.

  • Reply to

    anyone holding

    by srbsrb27 Jan 14, 2015 12:01 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 14, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Yes. LGCY is second largest holding and no plans to sell regardless of short term WTI price. In fact, no plans to sell regardless of long term price either, because of a high confidence level in management.

    We're obviously in an oil war with Russia, Iran, and Venezuela and even if LGCY goes to Zero, there will be no regrets as long as the Russian Dictator is defeated on the field of battle. Some things are more important than any stock price.

  • Reply to

    Sensitivity Analysis by Alpha Wolf

    by criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 12:22 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    mjh nailed it in my opinion. LINE might even suspend the distribution entirely and use the proceeds to reduce its' current $10Billion in Debt by $1Billion per year. LINE is our largest holding and I'd be okay with that scenario for two years, if it meant the company would be stronger at the end of this oil war, when crude prices will begin to rise again. My assumption is that this Saudi War on Russia and Iran will last at least through all of 2015. Seems the West pushed the Panic Button when they finally realized Putin is another Hitler, intent upon taking over former satellite states, and would not stop unless stopped by an outside force.

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Has anyone created a Sensitivity Analysis showing estimated DCFlow per Unit under various WTI and $/Mcf natural gas scenarios for CY 2015 and perhaps 2016 as well? If so, please share the results with us!

    Good Luck to All Longs and Happy New Year!

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Jan 1, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    The subject document on Seeking Alpha indicates that in 2015, with WTI at $60, LINE doesn't begin to cover the $2.90 distribution until Nat Gas is at least $4.00/mcf (not likely).
    With Nat Gas at $3.00, the distribution isn't covered until WTI is at $70 (not likely).
    One likely scenario for 2015 is WTI $50 & Nat Gas $3.50 when DCF per unit is estimated at $2.86.

    The article also gives estimated Discounted Cash Flows Per Unit for 2016, 2017, and 2018 at various pricing scenarios as hedges fall off.

    Happy New Year and good luck to all Longs

  • Reply to

    Oil rigs shutting down, good news.

    by shawn.pokorski Dec 29, 2014 4:18 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 29, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    shawn,
    No doubt you are correct and LGCY's management seemed to say as much during their last Conference Call. However, many are predicting oil won't bottom in price until Q2, 2015 and it wouldn't surprise me to see LGCY's common shares in single digits by then. This wonderful company is our second largest position, but I'd gladly lose it all if the USA can defeat Dictator Putin and secure his exit from Ukraine.

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Dec 29, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    A number of pros have predicted oil prices won't bottom until Quarter 2, 2015. We're in a long term struggle with Dictator Putin and it wouldn't surprise me to see LINN in the mid single digits by then. Unfortunately, it's the largest holding in our portfolio, but I'm willing to lose it all if we can defeat Russia and stop their aggression.

  • Reply to

    After a double bounce off the low

    by jrfillion Dec 19, 2014 3:49 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 20, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    Thanks for your ideas. Can you enlighten me about what "I like the thought of hydrogen production" is all about? What will the company be doing and when? Thanks in advance.

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Dec 16, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    Tonight 12/16/2014, Cramer told a caller LINN had "screwed up" and he couldn't hold it in his charitable trust anymore and the caller should sell his position. Wouldn't this be the worst time to sell?

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Dec 16, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Does anyone have insight about why ERC's share price is declining? Do they have bonds from the Energy Sector?

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Dec 14, 2014 3:03 AM Flag

    Is it really appropriate for our Federal Government to stand idly by while a foreign state systematically destroys the only American growth industry since The Great Recession, or should a $50.00/Barrel tariff be placed upon imported foreign oil?

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Dec 13, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Is it really the appropriate course of action for our government to stand idly by as another American industry is destroyed by unfair foreign competition, or should a $50/BBL tarriff on foreign crude oil be imposed to save it?

  • criticalthinker0227 by criticalthinker0227 Dec 13, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Is it really the appropriate role of our federal government to stand idly by while the only industry that has kept the American economy from complete collapse since The Great Recession, is systematically destroyed by a foreign state that wants to reassert the economic control over the USA that it had a decade ago? Or, should an emergency tarriff be implemented for $50.00 per barrell of oil imported into this country from those who are attacking and hollowing out our only true growth industry? Thanks for your comments and ideas!

  • criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 9, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    I listened to the entire presentation and came away with the impression LGCY is extremely well managed and will do everything possible to maintain the distribution. They have already begun to cut costs and are looking for accretive acquisitions, using their pristine balance sheet.

    That said, most of this paradigm shift is beyond their control and if "This time is different" due to disruptive geopolitical events and new technologies, LGCY might have a rough road ahead. I'll never sell though, as I have complete confidence in management to do what is in shareholders best interests. Just some of my opinions, not meant to be advice to anyone in any way, shape, or form.

  • Reply to

    How low? What's the deal?

    by srbsrb27 Dec 8, 2014 12:22 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 8, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Nobody knows how low the share price is going. It's $13.40 at 11:10AM PST on 12/8/14.....now $13.36 so the collapse continues. Now we might know why a senior management leader just resigned his position. Are others to follow?

  • Reply to

    Mid Q4 update

    by wcsg122 Dec 2, 2014 10:21 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 5, 2014 3:39 AM Flag

    Thanks very much, I really appreciate the advice. Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    Mid Q4 update

    by wcsg122 Dec 2, 2014 10:21 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 4, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    wcsg122, Thank you, I respect your well grounded opinions so before I buy even more CVRR I'd like to know if you are aware of remarks made by Rep. Paul Ryan which indicate it may be necesary to remove MLP status from the federal tax code to bring about "fairness", and whether they concern you at all. What might happen to CVRR if MLP status is revoked? Thanks & Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    Cary brown resigning

    by m20m75ph Dec 3, 2014 2:39 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 3, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    Good question, but I hope it isn't because of a strategic error or miscalculation associated with the collapse of crude oil's price!

  • Reply to

    Mid Q4 update

    by wcsg122 Dec 2, 2014 10:21 PM
    criticalthinker0227 criticalthinker0227 Dec 3, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    wcsg122, Thank you for your excellent insight! Bought more today as I believe CVRR will prosper.

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