The President and Senate leaders may or may not reach an accord today or tomorrow, we all hope they do. Result will be a dead cat bounce for stocks, unless the House sign's on. Even a casual observer appreciates the white space between the House dems and repubs is large. Until a deal is done, your target's for NPSP are real. For now, the performance of biotech and the higher vitality stock sectors is captive to Washington, rather than company prospects. Sad, but true.
I agree the risk/reward is disproportionate. A positive earnings report with favorable guidance is largely priced into a stock that has appreciated 31% since September 1. Any combination of earnings/revenue miss, guidance disappointment, or budget/debt market pullback over the next six weeks will result in a MU correction of 15% or more. Uncharacteristically heavy selling by the three top operating officers with no purchases is worrisome. MU is a well run company, the stock though is priced for perfection.
Very well articulated analysis. I believe that technical's provide propitious entry and exit target for stocks. I personally rely on macro economical trends to guide my investing by sector, and geography, fundamental analysis to select specific stocks with competitive barriers, disruptive technology, and execution prowess, and then technical's to fine tune tactical pricing targets. Three D printing offers real promise for superior growth, and XONE has an important foothold in the industrial market segment.
Xone's performance over the past two days has been telling. The broader S&P has declined .86% and .88% respectively. Concurrently ONE has appreciated 9% and 5.5% on very high confirming volume. 5 day just crossed above 13 day EMA, 12/26 MACD has also crossed 9 day MACD, and the RSI @ 75 is very strong. In aggregate this bodes well for the short and mid term prospects for XONE
Followers of NPSP being rewarded today with a 4% increase may want to also look at SRPT. Similar orphan drug profile, different disease. High Mo stock, up 5.5% today, up 38% since 9/19.
I respect your perspective and believe that the stock will likely resume it's positive trajectory, after either a favorable report in the November Quarterly earnings announcement or an earlier positive catalyst , that is not evident at this time.
The stock dropped 7% today and will likely continue to correct in October, after stalling since September 16. Fortuitously I, and many investors and institutions, sold or reduced their positions, when the Stochastics telegraphed an over bought conditioned several days ago.
Concern over deteriorating stock technical's, are reinforced by the recent prescient sales of nearly 125,000 shares by the VP Sales, Eric Tom, at prices ranging from $ 18- $ 19.27 suggesting that he considered the stock was nearing a short term top. VP Sales frequently are able to understand the relationship between near term business prospects vs share price.
I also like the mid to long term prospects for GME, but share your view that over the next several weeks the risk/return is decisively weighted negative at a $ 49+ share price. Absent a positive catalyst, that is unlikely until the company reports November 11, the stock is more likely to continue it's correction in October, before resuming appreciation.
I also like the stock medium term and beyond, and agree with your cautionary short term analysis. During the most recent market correction in late June the S&P dropped 5%, IGT declined 8%, after the broader market correction began.
I concur with your short term caution, in the context of a positive medium to long term view of the company. A combination of deteriorating stock technicals, an impressive run up since mid July from $ 27.60 to $ 49.50 that is showing signs of fatigue, and a near term external environment that could cause the broader market to correct by 5-10%, suggest a flashing yellow caution sign.
High Beta stocks such as SFUN, frequently outperform in a rising market and over correct during pullbacks. A testing of the August low or the 50 day SMA over the next several weeks is very plausible.
Well articulated analysis. Today's pop secondary could be a success until it is completed, followed by a correction in the next two weeks, and smooth sailing in October. I would rather add to positions in the low to mid $ 18's after the froth of the SPO has abated. My view changes if the stock sustainably powers higher over the next two weeks on high confirming volume.
Well articulated analysis. The secondary could be a success until it is completed, followed by a correction in the next two weeks, and smooth sailing in October.
NPSP is near the daily low down almost 3%. Two day's of lower highs, lower low's, and lower close on high volume, do suggest that the near term risk adjusted return is negative. Assuming a close 7% lower than September 10, selling stop triggers could be activated that will accelerate the decline tomorrow. I concur that THIS month $ 21-$ 25 is more likely than $ 30.
I also caught the CNBC segment that featured LULU and the prospect for a Nike acquisition. The options trading in both stocks suggests that this is plausible. Investment banks are highly motivated to make it happen. Nike has the market capitalization, cash, and, access to low cost debt that makes this doable. The deal could be acretive to Nike given LULU's depressed share price. The departing CEO,doing almost all of the insider selling, is incented to leave on a high note by effecting a merger with a strong partner like Nike.
I agree with your thesis that FIVE is a good medium to long term buy, but has gotten ahead of it's skiis in near term pricing. If the stock does not reverse the decline, exceeded 2%, and close positive for the day, a more pronounced correction is likely. The combination very high short interest, PEG stretch, the real possibility of stops kicking in, and a challenging external environment over the next several weeks, suggest a short term reversion back to $ 36- $ 37 is reasonable