I think you're theory is correct Rob, Al Gore invented the internet and Elon invented everything else. I'm sure if elon thought he could get a big government subsidy from the feds or some sucker state government he'd figure out a way to make flying pigs and put in a giga-pig farm somewhere too. Guys like kbutthead and the other zealots would get in line to buy stock in PIG.
No, I think kbutthead is a freshman in a community college somewhere and he's got his whole bankroll tied up in 3 shares of Tesla. He's obvioulsy holding on too tight based on the tone of his increasingly desperate and derogatory posts. Anyone not giving him a thumbs up for his rants are subject to personal attacks. Best way to solve this problem and put the "poor - and getting poorer every day" little boy out of his misery is to put him on ignore which is what I'm doing right after I hit the post button!!!
Actually, you don't always have to show your cards. You can make a big bluff bet and make the other guy fold. To use your poker analogy, Tesla is the flop and Elon has made a big bluff bet (by using his money to try to buy the pot). The short interest in this stock is still incredibly high which tells me Elon's big bluff isn't working. In the end, Tesla will "fold like a house of cards" and stockholders will take "another bad beat".
Not to mention that model X sales will canablize model S sales - they sure as heck are going to stealing customers from Nissan.
Dear Dazed and Confused,
You pretty much hit the nail on the head. You are suffering from what we call - rational thinking. As the saying goes, "if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck". In Tesla's case if it has cumulative losses of over 1 B since inception, and no prospect of ever making money, and has to continue to invent reasons to borrow money, then its a "failed business model" destined for the scrap heap of other failed companies that have gone down this same path.
Their stock price has been propped up by zealots and IBs looking to generate commissions on future debt and stock offerings which gives the allusion of a profitable business - don't fall for this. In the end, the laws of finance always win, and just like the laws of physics - you can defy them for a while (by borrowing cash), but when the cash (fuel) runs out, the business hits the dirt like a spent model X rocket booster.
Hope this helps....
At this point, Tesla should be able to demonstrate positive cash flow from their primary operations, i.e,, selling cars. The only thing they've been proficient at is generating positve cash flow by borrowing money. You don't have to be a rocket scientist (or own shares of Space X) to see that this is a failed business model.
Tesla is a black hole which will require continued capital injections either by additional stock sales or debt offerings just to keep limping along. No Virginia, there isn't a Santa Claus and no E-longs, your fearless leader can't produce a car that will meet the dual mandate of 1) saving the planet and 2) making stockholders money.
Telsa is nothing more than the poster child for government subsidized corruption. The states of CA and NV are suckers and Federal tax credits and loans are nothing but ill fated attempts by bureaucrats to pick private sector winners..... their track record is abysmal.
Then all civilization as we know it ceases to exist ...... well maybe not that drastic..... unless you're an E-long!
Perhaps a better question is, how many unsold cars are going to be on the books at 9/30/2014? I am suffering from the assumption that Tesla builds each car based on a customer order and not for stock. If my assumption is correct, then the answer to the inventor build at the end of Q2 COULD BE that a significant portion of the finished goods were earmarked for shipment to Europe to fill orders. I have no idea how many cars can be shipped on 1 transport ship or the availability of transports. If there was a bulk shipment to Europe in July consisting of 2K cars then that would explain the inventory build. I don't think Kbodies sales reports for Europe reflected that level of sales for July though.
Excellent question DV, inquiring minds want to know .... where are those cars? Are they on a transport ship, in a holding parking lot somewhere waiting for a transport ship, hid in NV somewhere, maybe they're stuck in quarantine on the docks in Chiana...... who knows.
Of course the analysts following this stock would never dare ask such a probing question (probably because they're not as smart as you are and can't read a balance sheet). Heaven forbid if the real number of finished goods should have been 1200 units. That would require a 150M charge off to cost of sales wouldn't it? That would make the 2nd quarter loss even larger..... can't have that.
I think I will become a stock anaylyst. The barriers to entry seem to be very low. Evidently, to be a good analyst you have to really enjoy the taste of Koolaid (no insult to Koolaid). These guys just sit in their cubicles all day and make baseless predictions about a company's future and then attach some ridiculous price to the stock. They get the notariety for their prediction (which feeds their ego) and they never get sued when their predictions turn out to be false. Yep, I 'm signing up.
Here's my first prediction: Croc predicts Tesla to sell 1MM units by 2025 and the stock price target is $ 999.
Note: my prediction has all the essential elements - eye popping, outrageous claims and an even more outrageous price target - this job is easy, think I'll become an astronaut too - maybe apply for a job at SpaceX.
I couldn't agree with your comment more, "Don't listen to clowns like aristocrat, in fact don't listen to anyone on these boards." I think you forgot to add ..... except me.
As to technical indicators, I prefer the magic 8 ball and my secret weapon - chicken bones. It takes a little practice learning to read chicken bones but once you get the hang of it, you won't be a better trader, but you will be the hit of every party you go to. The chicks dig it and after all, would you rather make more money or pick up hot chicks?
If chicken bones seems too advanced, might I suggest a balanced mutual fund like Vanguards Wellesley fund.
I think these two guys from ISIS have their head on straight... no pun intended. They suggest that if Tesla sells 500K cars the stock should be worth $ 320. I agree. So if we scale the stock price down to match current production levels of 25K (5% of 500K), then logic would suggest the true value of the stock should be
5% of $ 320 or $ 16.00 per share. Yeah, I can live with that valuation - seems a lot closer to reality. Thanks ISIS, for clearing up this situation. Oh.... and let the freefall begin!!
I guess one of you better keep their snorkel to the grindstone...."how can she earn the $'s back?" I'm sure you'll get a lot of help from this board on that ?
I'll stick by my prediction. Bankruptcy is in Tesla's future.... in the long run, I'll be right and you'll be... delusional as usual. JTF maam.
Evidently you're one of them...
If you like Tesla you should be jumping all over it at $ 253, it's selling for a 9% discount from Friday's close. What a bargain, load up. You're kids will thank you (errr maybe not).
As Don Meridith used to sing at the end of the MNF games.... "turn out the lights, the party's over... all good scams, must come to an end" ... or something like that. I think you get the idea.
JTF (what a misnomer btw), let me dumb it down for ye. Tesla will go bankrupt. Period. All the Kings horses and all the Kings men, won't be able to put Tesla back together again. Translation: all the financial engineering and BS are no substitute for building a better product that people can afford. Period, end of story. Is that dumb enough?