Some one should probably tell Elon that when he makes these empty statements it makes him and TSLA look desparate. On the other hand, no, let's don't tell him - he might stop launching tweets and trial balloon excuses and they're just too fun to talk about.
He was probably excited to meet some real automobile manufacturing executives and wanted to let the world know he had a chance to meet them and that they talked about batteries.
It's kind of like being in Hollywood and sitting down to lunch and having Jennifer Aniston sit next to you and talk to you during lunch about the entertainment business. She's polite and let's you take your picture with her and then you run to your facebook and post that you just met Jennifter Aniston and talked about YOUR acting career.
You're probably right - I didn't watch the video a Keef is always posting untimely carp on this board. My fault for not checking it out before commenting.
cssaxt, not sure what that stands for - I guest pss-ant was already taken? Evidently you prefer Sunday's for your circle jerks which is fine, we can always make room for smart guys like you.
I don't follow Nissan but I've never heard them complain about supply problems have you? But think about that for a second, here's your boy Elon (probably the smartest guy in the world) and he wants to build an electric car. I'm not 1/10 as smart as him but the first thing I'd do, would be to make darn sure I could get my hands on an adequate supply of parts for my electric car. That would include the batteries - kind of critical for an electric car.
If Nissan and Chevy can build electric cars I assume the parts are available. So then it comes down to which style of car you want to build. A high end luxuory car with limited appeal or a mass market car? Hmm. Yeah, let's go with the high end car with limited appeal and let the competition get a huge head start on the mass market car. Brilliant strategy. And to compound the problem, lets sell direct to the end user - no other OEM does it that way but hey, the don't have a rocket scientist for their CEO do they?
Personally I can't see anything wrong with Monday morning quarterbacking this company or the decisions that have been made. I thought that's what the TSLA board was for. Regardless,
thanks for coming out of the woodwork , I was beginning to think all the zealots moved on to the Alibaba board. See you next Sunday? Same time?
This will be the excuse for not making 4Q sales. Not enough batteries due to major fire at a suppiers recycling plant. Too bad they've already used that excuse in order to raise billions for the GF, or they could ask the IBs to shill for them to raise another couple billion (with a B).
As to Elon being wed to the distribution model just to be different - that's absurd. He obviously thought he could recognize a greater profit margin by cutting out the dealers but didn't factor in the risk he was taking. It was foolish of him and the BOD for letting him go down that road.
I agree 100% with Coach that TSLA rolled out the wrong model first. Should have started w/ a well built, lighter version of the MS and sacrifice range for quality. Compete w/ Nissan heads up but beat them w/ quality. No need to go for the transcontinental car - EVs are commuter cars - everybody knows that.
edep, not sure what you're snipey comment was all about but I was interested in what Coach would do from a strategic point of view to turn the business around. I didn't realize you had so much car dealership experience or I would have asked you instead.
Thanks for the feedback. I think the bankruptcy trustee may need your input! I agree with the "get it right here approach first" - this is one messed up company. I wonder if the board of directors ever meet? I really question their knowledge of the industry.
""On the other hand, there's not a single person on this board willing and able to debate me as to the positives regarding both the Tesla business and sales process."" Not sure what you mean - I'm satisfied there's no one on this board that knows more about the operations of a dealership than you.
Are you wanting to play devil's advocate and defend Tesla's current business plan and distribution model? Please clarify. Thanks.
Isn't it funny - have you ever seen anyone put out future projections which reflect sales dropping?
I would give a higher level of credibility to the house of card assumptions these analysts use if the company would actually meet or exceed any of their own projections. So far they haven't and the discount rate should be adjusted WAY higher to reflect the execution risk associated with this wannabe car manufacturing company.
My advice is to go out and buy January 2016 puts using a 100 strike price. Your exposure is limited and if you're right you will make a killing. The crooks pumping this stock could easily run it back up to $ 300 on a whim.
Is that part of the MUSH MANUFACTURING METHOD? Or what we call the MMM good approach?
Which means tying up a tremendous amount of cash in inventory. We will continue to see finished goods inventory rise each quarter and the cash continue to drop. This is the problem with the MUSH METHOD, - unless they have access to an ever increasing line of credit, they won't be able to fund inventory growth using short term financing and will be using long term money earmarked for the GF build out. In finance it's called the bait and switch - raise money for a long-term project but divert the proceeds to short term use I.,e, subsidizing operating losses and growing inventory and receivables.
Thus the rise in AP. They are using vendors as a free source of operating capital - this will only be allowed for so long.
Nice post EM unfortunately you won't get any meaningful debate or analysis from longs justifying the current or projected price. Adam Jonas (this week) laid out the assumptions he's using to justify his $ 320 price target and I was shocked to see him using a 15yr model and only an 11% discount rate. HIs other assumptions as to volume of cars that don't even exist and profit margins based on thin air seal the deal for me that his methods are pure VOODOO!
The only realistic conclusion then is market manipulation by IBs which have a stake in keeping the price up. I can't speak intelligently about what their motives might be (other than the obvious).
Bottom line, you're comparing a fully mature business (FIAT) with some wannabe car company and I like you, wonder when the chickens come home to roost. We know it will happen, it's just a timing issue.
Yes it did now that you mention it, and the letters WCRaP written on the pig and a big chested blonde throwing the money out the door...... hmmm, I think I've seen this movie before.
My guess is that the 2B raised this Spring was earmarked for the GF build out but has been used to subsidize operations instead. I'm sure some of it is being used for the GF but it's not restricted to that use.
Excellent summation of the situation Fred. You're obviously not related to Adam Jonas. Every point you made is verifiable yet the majority of the analysts touting this stock want to stick with their grossly exaggerated price targets.
One other thought about the declining CA sales. It's always been known that the most effective advertising is word of mouth between friends recommending services or products. You perform a service and exceed expectations for a reasonable price and you'll have more business than you can shake a stick at - it doesn't matter if you're an electrician, plumber, lawyer, painter, builder, or CPA. Exceed expectations for a reasonable price - nothing fancy about that concept.
The same applies to products, especially big ticket items like cars. It seems to me that the problem with waning CA sales is that the word of mouth advertising is not working because of disgruntaled buyers. If Norway is any example, or the Edmunds experience, is it any wonder they aren't achieving YOY growth in these existing markets? Who wants to buy a 100K headache? Life is stressful enough.