I really do hope your investment pays off. Science has a funny way of crushing the hopes of people when results are posted. You simply don't know what the outcome will be despite all the DD in the world until the results are in. And even with good results and FDA approval, funny things happen sometimes (look at DNDN, ARNA, AMRN, etc.). If SNSS triples with a successful trial result you will be very happy and feel you were very smart in doing what you did. Hope you are right!
This stock is coming back to haunt me now. I was heavily invested in it (think about 120K) about 4 years ago based on my understanding of the drug's mechanism of action and watched it get decimated after that little surprise 6:1 reverse split. Then I saw it drop from about 4.20 post-RS to around 1.20 and decided a 70% loss was the time to get out. If only I held on... sigh. Talk about really bad timing. I am not convinced that the news is going to be good with this Phase 3 trial. It is simply a #$%$ shoot when it comes to chemotherapy drugs used in conjunction with another agent. jk4763 is right. It will either be12-15 or 1-2 depending on the outcome. Good luck to all who have stuck with it!
The I.V. on those call options (Jan. 2.5, 2016) is high right now (about 110) and the theoretical value of those options should be around .668 (.67 in round numbers) so they are expensive for more reasons than simply the time involved if you buy them for over .67. They are 507 days out and if there is bad news in the next few weeks you will probably lose it all. It is simply a gamble since an awful lot can happen to AMRN in 1.5 years! With an emphasis on the word "awful"! lol!
I must say, I AM impressed that Yahoo has allowed honest and direct language on this board now. The F word summarizes my experience with AMRN over the past 3 years. But hope springs eternal right now!
Thanks Akanz2. I have been thinking of simply doign the IBB ETF for a while. Was hoping to make some money back first with AMRN and ARNA. Hope springs eternal here. I do hope your thoughts about AMRN are correct. We soon shall see! 5.95 is my break even point here. I will be happy with 3 at this point.
Akanz2- I promise I will! sadly I own ARNA too and it is down over 35% from when I bought that. Another "blockbuster" drug that got FDA approval but the stock is simply not going anywhere but down (heavy original short position is the main issue here and it looks like they will win).
I wish. That was just the IRA loss. I don't even wanna talk about what happened last October in my regular trading account. I stopped posting after that debacle for a long time. Selling covered calls has made me back less than 10K in the IRA. Definitely would help to see this finally go above 3 again (or maybe 7? lol!)
I must say- a very ballsy move. Spending 35-45K on long options in this situation is potentially going to be either very smart or very dumb depending on the outcome. If there is another delay you can rest assured that you will lose it all. If there is a positive answer you will certainly make 70K or more. I chose the easy way out. I SOLD the monthly covered calls for Sept. at the 3.00 strike and pocketed some nice money in advance. I expect to keep the stock for the potential run up in October if we prevail. It ain't going to 3 unless we get very good news in late September. Good luck. I actually hope you are correct because I will recoup a part of my 80K loss in this stock.
4.43 is not a good price by any means . I am hoping for some similar situation one day when the stock goes UP 13.16%.
Just for technical reasons, it is spelled Absinthe unless you are referring to the software synthesized called Absynth which uses LFO. Now on more serious technical reasons you are right- it was freakin' oversold this week!
Ha! You are right... BUT I was trying to be optimistic after receiving that email from the company today. I was not even on their email list to my knowledge so this is clearly being aimed at all physicians emails (I am not a bariatric specialist).
for some odd reason I got an email from Eisai today giving some very compelling info about Belviq. Dr. Ken Fujioka and Dr. Craig Primack were featured as non -surgical weight loss specialists. It appears to be direct email marketing to physicians. This might not make a difference in the stock price for now but ultimately the word will get out to many more MDs this way and you will see a rise in script growth over the next 3- 6 months.
At least they were covered calls. Don't ever sell NAKED calls (learned that lesson the very hard way with AIG once when it was around 12 bucks a few years back and sold naked calls expiring in 3 days at 14 since it had not budged in over a month from 12. So what happened? The stock had a major short squeeze the next 2 days and went to 28! I suddenly lost over 100K to cover that disaster.
On a slightly better note I sold cash secured puts on MNKD this past week (9.00 strike) and made some money this time.
I just posted the same info. You are correct about that. I became an expert on R.C.'s with ARNA over the past year. That is how the game is played by the big boys.
Shorts are now selling the July 19 15.00 Puts (deep ITM now) and buying the 15 calls in large quantities (7000 options on each side today) as an arbitrage technique. This hedges their short position.
It is a time honored quote. I remember first hearing it on October 19, 1987. Nothing really has changed since then!