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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

croppled1 38 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Dec 8, 2004
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  • croppled1 croppled1 8 hours ago Flag

    Buying more in the low 4's was one of the more fearful buys I have made in 30 years and I have owned shares in this company for a long time . I have faith in management but some things like ISIS in Iraq are outside of their control . Same with the Russian issues but they are a very small segment of revenue's and everything may be fine . I just wish they would release a statement explaining if either region will effect earnings going forward !

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Don't mind buying back JCI

    by gordon939 Sep 29, 2014 12:26 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 17, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    I am not so sure I believe you but I want too and time will tell . I added to my position after being scared out of some others earlier . This stock has gone far but if it can meet numbers as estimated for the next few years we will see $60 in 2017 and a 2% dividend just adds to investment sense . I have been letting go of my non dividend payers trying to find growth with a dividend . I am surprised that this is rather flat on a 300pt up day . My cost base is in the low thirties also .

  • Reply to

    Called customer relations:

    by hardmetalman1 Oct 14, 2014 12:06 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 16, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    I have read oil industry rags for a few years there are many . I can honestly say investing in Oil has been very challenging for me as I have no background or professional experience . The closest I have been to the industry was working as a pump jockey in the early 70's my last years in high school . I keep reading this is a bad time for crude prices as the summmer driving season stops as well as refineries shut down for normal maintenance and with that already being a bottleneck for production as they run at 95% of capacity and are very old in the USA with little new capacity coming on because of EPA and not in my backyard constraints .....the production flow stalls and price usually falls now then picks up in November . Thanksgiving is one of the highest energy use holidays of the year for the USA . Articles are split on whether $70 oil is a problem for oil sands companies many industry experts say they can survive and pump . Nice to see a bounce today as rational heads are feeling for the bottom and I imagine any shorts would be trying to cover once we hit $4 .

    http://www.mining.com/canadas-oil-sands-to-remain-unhurt-by-falling-crude-prices-37783/

  • croppled1 croppled1 Oct 15, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    Hard to n not feel fear here but my 30 years say were closer to the bottom then top . I have been making small purchases building my position last at $3.76 . Saw a nice lift on one of my drillers that has been decimated just as bad . At this price every $1000 here in PGH buys roughly $10 a mo income if you have faith in the dividend . I read the hedges and have that faith and Linbergh ramping up over the next three years will not hurt their cause . I believe we will see the dividend raised a few years out .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Now is the time to buy Pengrowth:

    by hardmetalman1 Oct 14, 2014 1:25 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 14, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    I believe they have saved the best core of the Burlington Canadian Assets bought from COP after they aquired Burlington at peak NG prices . I believe they used shares valued at $20 plus then to do the purchase . It has been a long time since the transaction occurred if anyone remembers more . I was pleased to read the new cost of pulling a boe out of Lindbergh was in the low forty's but surprised it was 70 for conventional oil . I saw others remember a decade ago when the cost for PGH was in the $20 range before tax at the well head . Things change and they bought the Burlington assets at the absolute top of the market though they used stock in the transaction .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Who on this board knows

    by frazier52 Oct 13, 2014 11:56 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 14, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    t would not let me post any more words above but of course this is for USA citizens . I do not know Canadian tax law other then we have a treaty and there are forms to reduce or eliminate witholding which I have received from my broker , filled out and return to keep what is paid into Canada at a minimum then the rest is returned at tax time by filling out the proper forms . There is some leakage but minimal you can get most back . I have no earned income at this point in my life I do not know how retirement accounts work .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Who on this board knows

    by frazier52 Oct 13, 2014 11:56 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 14, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    I feel for you . I bought shares at a average cost of about $12 years back and rode the stock to the mid twenties then down to $18 before I cut the cord on all but a few hundred . Thankfully I have learned to dollar cost average into my positions and often sell for some profit rather then let positions turn into losses even though it may be disappointing . Everyone is different , has different resources , goals and time frames . If you can afford it in my heart I believe were very close if not at the bottom here . Look at the hedges 3 years out and the estimates that were raised for p10 reserves as well as the payout which the hedges secure and expectations of a ramp up on production as Linberg kicks in . You may want to consider what I imagine many institutions are doing and take a tax loss on your $20 shares . Since this is the end quarter for institutions I believe big money is doing this and the selling will ebb at the end of this month switching only to retail holdings . You also have had margin calls in Europe which has been seen by the market climbing everyday after they close around 11am est . You may want to buy your replacement shares here or some of them and wait your 31 days so you can take the loss and not break wash sale rules . Truly the stock is down over 40% in two months . The price of oil is down 15% but we are hedged over 60 % and even higher for 3 years in the high $80's and $90's . The company sells in US $$$ so the currency is helping them all is good . I would think about this . It all depends if you need capital losses and they do carry over forever until you use them up plus apply to up to $3000 of ordinary income per year . Nobody wants a loss but managing them can further help your long term outcome . Truly PGH has survived through $10 oil the oil embargo of the 70's and inflation of the 80's . I do not see any problem going out the next three years . Linberg added 1.2 billion in probable reserves this year things are not this bad !

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    10/09 TARGET for PGH --- "around" $4.00

    by chandlerdanforth Oct 9, 2014 11:52 AM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 13, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    Good target , I never get it right . I added a little here today at 4.09 . Been nibbling on periods of weakness . For me this is the correction I never saw coming and if 40% isn't a correction which is what almost all of my small caps have lost ..I dont' know what is .

  • croppled1 croppled1 Oct 11, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Nobody can do it all the time ....

  • croppled1 croppled1 Oct 11, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    If you could nail the highs and lows on even the blue chips it would double your profits or more each year but few can . My Dad always wanted to short against the box in blue chip Utilities to maximize profits and income and though in theory it would be nice there are very few people who can predict stock movements and pivot points so it can be done .

  • The best I can figure this is still no more then 5% of revenues for the two crews in Russia and rig 270 plus the 2 rigs and crews in Iraq who I pray are safe if they are even still manning the rigs . Heard Isis is advancing further all the info is still conflicting that is coming into the mainstream news . I am no longer accumulating until after I listen to the earnings conference and hope PKD will release a news item if on nothing else but the crews status and safety in Iraq as well as effects on tooling if any in that region . Info on the Russian situation and contracts would be welcome also . I would imagine they can't answer one persons question by phone to IR . Best wishes to other longs during these difficult times . I will not sell one share down here even with the worst case scenario of loosing these rigs and contracts PKD is worth $6 a share .

  • croppled1 croppled1 Oct 11, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    I feel for those that use margin this is a cruel market . That aside I am not a accountant as well as in poor health so I am having trouble going over the books . I did see where for 3 years PGH has solid hedges on and if my memory serves me right with taxes at the well heads and all costs I believe I heard at one time PGH is one of the lowest cost producers of a barrel of oil or equivalents . I believe the figure was sub $35 . That being said this is a screaming buy and worth nibbling at on days of weakness overtime . After the sellers puke up their shares this should climb pretty fast back to a reasonable level . If it just goes to .85 of book the gains will be huge for those accumulating now plus you get a 10% dividend and one that looks secure thanks to the hedging near term and proved reserves being tapped into and which will be online as LInberg ramps up 3 years from now to full production . Sad there isn't a way to get stranded NG out in the form of LNG to Europe or Japan where it trades for double what it does here at a minimum . It is almost a sin we still flare gas in such high percentages and it is another plus for PGH that they are trying to use theirs in the thermal projects . I am adding on days of weakness with a cost base in the $5 range , Times have changed but these guys have been around since the 50's and survived the 74 embargo as well as $10 a barrel oil . Yes they have only been public a much shorter time and I have held some core shares all along which have paid out over $35 each in payouts . I may be wrong but I see the 4 cents cdn qualified dividend being paid and raised as LInberg progresses and am greatful for the hedging and amazed anyone needs money so bad as to liquidate down here .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    is pgh still in business?

    by phinky_bunny Oct 10, 2014 2:50 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 10, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    i think this is better then most people think with all the fear out there . They have been around since the 1950's . They lived through $10 a barrel oil . They have a nice hedge program check it out at their website . For 3 years they are pretty well locked in with over 60% in the high 80's and 90's . They are trading way below book value and the world will certainly be doing better in 3 years . Huge Typhoon in Japan may effect markets Monday . I keep nibbling after cashing in some winners and kicking myself for letting some go under water like this one . May be wrong but it seems to low to sell to me but I haven't been right loosing much of my gains this year . I had been averaging up in this one after Linberg's reserves were brought up by 1.2 billion dollars . I had been adding a little oil and industrials all year and have been beaten up with some small caps down 40% that have single digit PE's with single digit growth like GASS .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Smart PGH traders

    by ilovetomakedinero Oct 10, 2014 11:04 AM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 10, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    Buy late and sell early was how one famous trader said he made his millions a century ago . Does anyone remember the average cost per barrel PGH takes oil or equivilents out of the ground for . My memory seems to think this is one of the lower cost producers . I know they pay tax at the well head but even with it I think they are sub $35 ? Am I wrong ? I saw other Analysts saying many fracker's in the States need $85 oil to turn a profit and Opec has announced they are increasing production ahead of their meeting to develop more policy . Some think they want to shut down marginal production that way first . Any comments . I have to think this is a screaming buy here and of all my companies I think they could get a bid because of the sharp drop . I have been accumulating this for a while and it is a 3% position for me at $5.68 . I wasn't a smart trader but the small monthly checks that are qualified dividends are nice .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Parker needs a New Public Relations team...

    by ggray1956 Sep 16, 2014 11:03 AM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 9, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    This has been a family owned business that went public , one time it traded as high as $48 but has bounced up and down over and over . Not something to bet the farm on unless you do allot of access to information from the field . They have always been honest and straight shooters as well as very good at deep drilling ( they hold world records ) and safety . Hang in there and don't over invest in one place . I know it doesn't help even I feel pain with this being about a 1% position . If they lost the Russian Rig and crew contract there with Exxon plus both Iraq rigs which they haven't yet I would think a 40% correction from the high is overdone .

  • Reply to

    what else is new

    by kilmeraj Sep 17, 2014 3:02 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 9, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Ps anyone know if they have any tool operations in Russia ?

  • Reply to

    what else is new

    by kilmeraj Sep 17, 2014 3:02 PM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 9, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    I am sorry to hear their loosing that work on the Island . I thought I heard they may have one rig there too . I also heard ISIS is attacking the Kurds again so I wonder if PKD pulled employee's off the Iraq rigs ? Thankfully all three and the contract should be no more then 6% of their gross if that . I imagine the rigs are insured though they better check the act of war clauses . Take care sorry we stepped in another one but I think were better off here then we were in TMR . Worst case dead money for a while till the economies heat up and you know they will ..more people every day wanting more freedoms and to transport good and or themselves .

  • They had him respond to one analyst who stated the price could fall to $25 . In his thinking Mr Pickens stated he could see sub $80 but not lower then $70 which would put the E and P companies on hold but not stop the Tar Sands or Fracking wells . He mentioned OPEC has a meeting in 6 weeks and that would be the watershed moment to see if they would try to drop the price to stick it to those who need min $50 oil ( tar sands and Frackers ) but he didn't believe they would cut their own profit margins because in the long run they benefit so much from prices above $50 . There has also been talk that Banks no longer can hold futures contracts and that was effecting prices near term but it should firm once their all out and in compliance with this change in rules which is a return to the way things used to be . Hope this helps someone .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • croppled1 croppled1 Oct 9, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    I do not believe Parker has much in Russia they work on a Exxon Rig though their may be 1 new transportable there . PKD has a huge interest in Kazakhstan but that is not Russia and they have 2 rigs in Iraq but I have not heard they have ceased operations . The area they are in has not been taken over by ISIS though they have entered it several times trying to take parts over in the Kurdish area of the Northeast region . Anyone know anymore or to correct here . I have to think this is a buy at 60% of fair value of a month ago . Best of luck to everyone .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Pengrowth's stock price is falling:

    by hardmetalman1 Oct 2, 2014 8:41 AM
    croppled1 croppled1 Oct 8, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    One good thing is nobody will complain about the hedges loosing money ..now they will be complaining they didn't hedge enough . Catching a falling knife is no good . I nibbled yesterday and am having my head handed to me . Kicking myself for letting a nice gain turn into a loss on my PGH shares . It has been difficult attempting to build a consistent income stream without volatility this year . As usual the mainstream market was pushing oil the past few quarters when people should of been selling . Time to put the dunce cap on and go sit in the corner to wait this out . My brain see's the dividend solid but increases may be slowed

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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