That is what this has always been since 2002 a yeild net distribution model on oil and gas . They may have to change . Debt is not ridiculous though I am wondering if they can get a reasonable price for the properties they targeted at 600 million this year to reduce debt by that much . When I first invested they were 70 /30 NG and that was before they aquired the Canadian Burlington properties from COP . We may get some relief if NG pricing climbs and they start to get less oily . They were a little late to change before . However they have one of the best track records for drilling of all the oil companies I research . They have been around since the 1950's . They have a nice set up and should recover for those with a long term window . You don't find those players on this board . I do feel like a fool for missing this fall but it is hard to remember the lessons of decades ago . Further with todays world we may just see the World economies able to roar back quicker then ever before now that we have seen the entire planet cycle through a slow down that has taken over a decade . For PGH unless the recent price has triggered some agreement I am not aware of they have still not triggered any issues in their lines of paper or credit . That is a huge positive compared to others .
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am wondering what I am not seeing here though I believe tax selling as people need to match winners to their losers is keeping the stock down more then it should be . They do need to do some trimming in upper ranks but it is always hard to do without effecting moral . I always have been impressed with their drilling plans and success ratio . That is why I put money in here creating a equal weight position that sadly has been red for a while . Been wrong before but time usually has a way of fixing things if your patient . These guys do find oil but they have never recovered since the double taxation started and taxes went up at the well heads .
Seems like there is allot of short term money riding moves and then exiting quickly and rotating to the next sector . Transportation had some nice runs so backing and filling during periods of worry seems reasonable . Many people are worried of the Fed raising rates and Q3 of the calendar year as usual with the strong dollar . There is no doubt renewables are taking a big bite out of energy use along with less coal and oil traveling by rail and airlines have climbed in valuation only to be plagued by their non efficient models of scheduling flights while needing newer energy conserving planes to ex[and margins that are costly and not in supply .
Noticed S and P gave CCJ a IQ rating of 88 with a quality rating of B among the best in mining currently . Not havinjg any exposer to sector I entered a few months ago at 15 then worry got the best of my sold out at $17 . Been regretting the exit though it worked out well . Back in at $15 today . After reading the board a little concerned about the tax issues though at the last CC they did not seem to worry analysts when the company responded . Information is at the CCJ investor site inside transcripts available for download . Have allot to learn about this company yet but they seem to have reasonable prospects for growth moving forward based on pricing and process . Contract with India was a nice development that should lead to more rewards moving forward through 2017 , Good luck hope the technicals show accumulation is developing soon . The options market appears positive on the pps moving forward . Purchasing shares and selling calls a few points higher seems to be a interesting short term transaction cushioned by a 2% dividend .
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I actually got back into it when he blessed it back a ways then he reversed course like the next week . He flops around like a tuna on the deck of a fishing boat at times in spite of what he claims
They do what they say and they do produce
Pengrowth Energy (NYSE:PGH) declares C$0.02/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.Forward yield 7.7%Payable July 15; for shareholders of record June 22; ex-div June 18.
NG has so much stranded supply with much more difficult transportation requirements to get to end markets I do not think you can compare them in todays world . For years Oil men always talked about a 6 to 1 ratio for the price of a barrel of oil to NG and it hasn't proved true due to higher demand for oil which can be refined into many sought after products used by industry besides it's thermal energy properties . NG has so much stranded product the lifting costs of what is being sent to market is always from the low cost end of the spectrum and will be while the demand for oil has driven exploration to go after high lifting cost targets . They each have developed very unique problems overtime . Hope demand picks up soon , doesn't look good today and I really do not have a clue where we are going in terms of pricing ahead for the near term .
Sadly I never understood why the price of oil declined during the late 80's to 90's after the rises in the 70's and early 80's . I would love to hear a opinion on it . My basic understanding has always bought into the easy oil has been found and sold leaving only what costs more to lift requiring higher pricing overall . Lately I am hearing technology is actually lowering the costs for recovering a barrel of oil and transporting it to the end users . It seems like some areas are pumping all they can and we are adding IRAN and IRAQ into the production equation after a absence for most of the last decade . When they go full on in time it can't be good if the world economy doesnt pick up and conservation keeps progressing like it has . Quite amazing how vehicles in Europe and the USA get double the mileage of 15 years ago and we have wind , solar etc lowering demand and that is while we also have been removing coal from use at the same time .
IMHO your there now . I posted the historic annual range for this stock for the last 10 years . $2.41 was a 10 year low . So PGH seems to be priced like it is going out of business when it is anything but . The recent shelf filing and tax worries due to political change in Alberta , as well as time below $5 a share and a very timid q1 report that muted the previous investor day presentation together with tax less selling have pushed this below true value and scared many people on top of those that left the oil patch when prices dropped . However historically long term $50 oil is a healthy price .
ConocoPhillips' Surmont Project Achieves First Steam in Phase 2 - Analyst Blog
8:40 am ET June 2, 2015 (Zacks) Print
ConocoPhillips COP reached yet another milestone with the commissioning of first steam at phase 2 of its Surmont oil sands project in Canada on May 29.
The technique employed by Surmont to recover bitumen is known as steam-assisted gravity drainage (“SAGD”). This method necessitates the reservoir to be heated with steam to facilitate the flow of oil. First steam is an important step for the onset of production, or first oil, which is anticipated during the third quarter of 2015.
Production is expected to accelerate through 2017, which is likely to boost gross capacity by about 118,000 barrels of oil per day (BOD). Total gross capacity for Surmont 1 and 2 is estimated to touch 150,000 BOD.
Located in the Athabasca Region of northeastern Alberta, Canada, around 35 miles (63 kilometers) southeast of Fort McMurray, the Surmont project is operated by ConocoPhillips under a 50:50 joint venture agreement with Total E&P Canada.
ConocoPhillips is a major global exploration and production (E&P) company with operations and activities in 30 countries that include the U.S., Canada, the U.K./Norway, China, Australia, offshore Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, Russia and Qatar.
ConocoPhillips’ initiatives toward liquids-rich plays are gaining momentum through the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian plays. For the first quarter, daily production averaged 1.610 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). The company is on track to deliver average annual production as well as margin growth of 3–5%, with its focus on liquid-rich ventures primarily in the U.S. and Canada, although partially offset by curtailed production from Libya. Going forward, these regions are likely to play an important part in increasing the company’s yield.
Who would buy them everyone is shutting production since China expanded and subsidizes their plants on top of still using coal while we shut it down . I can see a arguement for value with a 5 year window but kicking myself for not selling when it was near one of the last two tops .
Hate to see what appears like a lower low coming year over year . Oh well if you liked it before at $12 you should love it at $11 or ? Still trying to believe this company can turn into a blue chip buy and hold investment but it keeps showing anything but . Love the downstream products but without upstream making headway the shares go nowhere . Finding it hard to add at the yearly low point as the sector is being shredded . At least AA will be around for many more years some of the smaller producers may not .
I just received a 2015 first quarter earnings report from PGH looks like their trying but if their wanting to plead their case I didn't see much but a muting down of rhetoric from the previous two presentations in it .
Seems like management is being very proactive to tell their story to shareholders . I will say it seemed like they pulled back on prior earnings and production estimates . Expenses were higher then first estimated and currency woes have been felt . I always have trouble valuing Oil and gas stocks as well as reits and as usual the numbers eluded me . PGH has moved up to 278 on the Nasdaq riskgrades tool . This is my spec stock . Sometimes I wonder if I should even play for the home runs . I almost hit one when i bought TSO years ago at $1 and change . I purchased several thousand shares and it went to $70 eventually . Problem was being poor I was so estatic when it hit $4 I cashed out . :-) If $2.58 was our new low point its a tad higher but it seems like this is the 4th bounce up from that area . Hope we can work our way higher soon . Just staying over 3 would be nice . I see some options are starting to form or get interest though you need to go out to next year to see any activity at $4 . I hope to see more action this fall . I am sort of surprised how things are going as it isn't that far back that nobody believed Oil would stay over $50 very long . Now people think these companies need $100 oil all the time . I never have been able to figure this sector out other then to buy it when blood has run and they have had a strong sell on it for a while .
remember people all over the world invest on the NYSE and China increase margin rules recently . Selling around the world effects the group and with all these ETF's when money pulls out of a sector it doesn't just come out of the weak stocks they have to sell a little bit of everything . I hate to see the little farmer or guy sitting in the city that needs the income bail here with the stock this low due to all the negative comments . Fear is not a good thing when it distorts the facts and things have been actually looking up here compared to other similar companies in the sector .
All these politicians say they want to reduce taxes here in the USA in order to help economic activity and the little guy . The USA Should start that income trust policy Canada bailed on . Then people could save for homes , educations and use them for retirment vehicles . They were the best idea I have ever seen in my life . No taxation at the corperate level as long as they distrubute 90 % of what would be retained earnings with the shareholder getting a break like the qualified dividend on top of it with a even larger break after 65 up to a certain income . Truly it was horrendous what happened to retiree's on both sides of the border when they changed the rules because so many companies wanted to convert after seeing how well the companies could grow when only taxed at the shareholder . That is how these taxes at the well head started because they would get nothing otherwise and when they got rid of the trust law and started double taxing distributions they stayed in place which is muting growth . Still margins can allow for growth during certain points in the business cycle . We should be soon to start on a uptrend in the oil and gas cycle very soon as the economy picks up . Industrials like JCI are starting to move .
Once they get lindbergh built of course they will though things are tougher now with double taxation at the corporate level and then shareholder . Sadly assets reprice when the price of oil falls but they actually carry lower debt then the industry average now . Their assets are priced under book . Allot of the items thrown around here as fact are 100% false . Also they have been in business since the 50's and their officers people bash hold many shares . Now some were given as compensation but still their very large shareholders . Many hold hundreds of thousands of shares so they like that dividend also besides feeling pain as the price per share falls . Their interests are very much aligned with shareholders this is all easy to verify as true . I am not the best accountant and it takes special knowledge to process financials in the oil and gas industry but usually by the time everyone agree's a stock is a sell the truth is the time to sell is past and it is close to basing and turning around if it is a decent business model . Of course a income stock will never have the growth of a company that reinvests that money to grow will but the model has proven to be able to pass on margins which often are in high single digits to the low teens . A little less even but with more upside then a Utillity play on average and with lucky cycle timing some periods of nice gains if your in and get out at the right time .
I agree with everything but the strong sell . It may be a tad early but I think the time to sell is long past . I believe we will have a hard time getting through 3.50 for a while but the stock is a buy here . They are in very good shape . Allot of people were scared by the refiling of the shelf as a older one was expiring .. Someone did call investor relations and was told they do not plan on using it It is just for a emergency or aquiring assets that would be profitable if used right away . This stock has always been put together to be a income vehicle since IPO back around 2000 . My first shares were purchased just after IPO at about $8 . I have done very well myself in PGH though I did get out when they fell from $26 to $18 after NG fell from it's peak years ago and they went through the Halloween Masacre with Harper changing the tax code in Canada eliminating income trusts which were such a great idea and vehicle for the regular Joe in Canada to save for create a self made retirement income . The pain they put people through when that happened was shameful as they were formed in every industry and made up of some great companies providing huge tax protected payouts with shareholders due to what was similar tax treatment as reits get in the USA - single taxation of dividends with a required 90% payout of returned earnings and they also received preferential tax treatment for retiree's .
When this company IPO'd oil was just coming off $10 a barrel and they paid about a nickel a month dividend . At one time it was in the .25 cent range when NG was in the teens . The shares traded up to
the mid twenties then . It is not unrealistic that they may climb into high single digits with a nickel dividend from here from here in the next lustrum with $70 oil as the world has changed