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Two Harbors Investment Corp. Message Board

crzyweasle 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 14, 2014 4:34 PM Member since: Feb 25, 1998
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  • Reply to

    ok, stop falling already

    by buffettwagon Nov 18, 2014 1:16 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 14, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    True. Not sure when a good time would be to get in. You might be able to wait three months and still get a price similar to this. After that, I think the stock will start rising, plus their dividend will improve because they have to distribute it. I do think it is about at its bottom. Obviously, I could be wrong, but looking at ag prices, I think there will be demand for their products. Those expensive beeves need lots of grain :)

  • Reply to

    ok, stop falling already

    by buffettwagon Nov 18, 2014 1:16 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 12, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    Most people buy this because they have to distribute most of their profits as dividends. They don't care about price, but the dividend. So, the price drops down to where people are interested in their dividend. With the temporary plant closing, obviously, the dividend has to go down and the price does, too. This is when you buy, though. It's a bad thing for those who held through this, but for buyers right now it's a good thing because you are going to get the good dividend and its prices is likely to go up over the course of the next couple of years. It's a cyclical stock with a cyclical dividend now at its bottom.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    How can they claim a forward P/E of under 5???

    by k4mrdue Dec 11, 2014 9:59 AM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 11, 2014 10:49 PM Flag

    PEG is not a valuation metric, if you ask me. The estimates are it will make around $8.67 a share a year from now. At a $200 price, that would only be only 4.3% profit. The average stock makes around 6% profit per year historically. I want to get closer to that 6% even though there are more "promises" beyond 2015. Promises are nice, but promises are all I get with this stock without a dividend. That's why I sold out awhile back and am looking for another opportunity to get back in at a realistic valuation.

  • Reply to

    How can they claim a forward P/E of under 5???

    by k4mrdue Dec 11, 2014 9:59 AM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 11, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    Yahoo data for BIDU are all screwed up and it has been for a very long time. I've told them about it, but they have done nothing to fix it. I've posted here about it, and they ignore that, too. Here's what I think they are doing wrong. Whoever is entering the data does not realize that it is reported in CNY in some reports and USD in others. They have no clue about the different currencies and are just typing the numbers without thinking, mixing currencies willy nilly without any regard to conversions. The best place to go for proper data on BIDU is NASDAQ, here: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/bidu You will find the Yahoo data for many foreign companies share this same problem. The Forward PE is around 36, which is too high even for a company that can grow its profits by as much as this one. This stock should probably be selling at a lower multiple and carry a price today of around $180. I would not buy it at this price. I sold awhile back and am waiting for a lower price to get back in. (I don't short stocks. That is stupid when you have to pay to do it, and there are always stocks you can buy that are going up, and the long-term history of the stock market is up, up and up.)

    Sentiment: Sell

  • crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 5, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    They Chinese just announced they are printing more money, so it could be a reaction to that. I don't know.

  • Reply to

    What happened today? 12/3/14

    by albayless Dec 3, 2014 10:38 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 5, 2014 12:17 AM Flag

    OK, I found my login to the Oppenheimer.com web site and logged in. It shows that i have 11.8% more shares than I had the last time I entered my number of shares for this. So, yes, apparently, they issued a share dividend of some sort. My estimate may not be accurate in that I may have not have kept up with how many shares I have for some time. But, based on the last time I updated my number of shares, that is the increase for my account. I hope this helps. Whew... you just hate seeing something like that happen all of the sudden with no warning.

  • Reply to

    What happened today? 12/3/14

    by albayless Dec 3, 2014 10:38 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 3, 2014 11:57 PM Flag

    I checked a larger set of their investments on Morningstar, around 70%. They netted up today, too. This is apparently a glitch of some sort.

  • Reply to

    What happened today? 12/3/14

    by albayless Dec 3, 2014 10:38 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Dec 3, 2014 11:37 PM Flag

    I noticed that, too, but I'm thinking it has to be some sort of reporting error not something that actually happened. It just seems impossible considering their top 10 netted up today and those 10 are 30% of their portfolio.

  • crzyweasle crzyweasle Nov 28, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    Get a Ford. My batteries last four or five years at least.

  • Reply to

    And we dipped under 23

    by ntcse Nov 10, 2014 5:40 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Nov 12, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    They are just taking profits. Keep in mind that some institutional investors have limits to the percent of their portfolio they can have in one stock. When a stock goes up this fast, they have to sell and that can depress prices temporarily on a stock like this.

  • Reply to

    Buy Opp for Trimble yet again for TRMB longs.

    by biggerwigg Oct 31, 2014 5:50 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Nov 4, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    Estimate are more than 8% growth in profits 2015 over 2014... cash flow to market cap is still good. Yes, estimates were lowered, but price is lower, too. And, I'm invested in lots of good companies. This one is good, too, at this price. I would not recommend it at $30, but at $27 it's a good price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy Opp for Trimble yet again for TRMB longs.

    by biggerwigg Oct 31, 2014 5:50 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Nov 2, 2014 1:17 AM Flag

    Low debt, plenty of cash, excellent cash flow, growing profits, down to a very reasonable price... good time to step in for the first time or add more shares.

  • Reply to

    3Q earnings report and share price reaction

    by jiangli21 Oct 30, 2014 1:54 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Oct 30, 2014 8:17 PM Flag

    I think it was investors selling on the news to take profits and probably didn't realize they were creating this drop. IOW, a lot of it was traders making a mistake thinking they were the only ones selling on the news to take a profit. It'll be back quickly, then business as usual. I can see some upgrades coming, I think one already did, and maybe 50-80% growth over the next year, depending up on how 2016 is looking later on.

  • Reply to

    Next years earnings estimates

    by pwrtech01 Oct 30, 2014 10:41 AM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Oct 30, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    Agree. PE should be around 20... about a $40 stock in a year. Good buying opportunity, but you can't blame them for taking profits. I think it will regain half what it lost today very soon, then proceed as you anticipate.

  • Reply to

    cop or cvx

    by ronb6363 Oct 21, 2014 4:25 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Oct 25, 2014 4:00 AM Flag

    Here is something to consider on this dip. Right now some dislike COP because of it's heavy exposure to US domestic natural gas. Next year we're going to start seeing shipments of LNG from the US to Asia where it sells for several times what it sells for in the US. COP is well-positioned to take advantage of that. Not only will they reap benefits from the exports, but domestic prices of natural gas could rise. I think if you are new to this stock or oil stocks in general, you might prefer it over the other oil companies because of this exposure to natural gas prices. It is treated as a negative now, but it could turn into a positive a year from now. In the meantime, you get to collect a nice dividend and be paid to wait on increasing natural gas prices. If that is a bit risky to you, buy some airline stock as a hedge. When oil prices are low, airlines usually benefit. I also just bought AAL and LUV on the ebola scare and they bounced back nicely, ahead of the schedule I had in mind. I don't think you could go wrong by taking the money you were planning to use to buy oil shares and put half in COP and the other half in either AAL or LUV or a quarter in each. In my opinion, oil stocks could remain flat as the Arabs try to figure out what to do about this new oil we're uncovering here. They can't seem to make up their mind whether to squeeze out the US stripper wells by lowering prices or cut production. It's weird. But those oil companies that also have good exposure to natural gas could go up in price, despite what oil does. COP is about the best one on that, or you could go with the natural gas companies like DVN or Cheasapeake. Another hedge on the oil side is to keep or buy PSX. It's a refiner now, so they get a wider margin when oil prices decline, like the airlines. Remember, prices are sticky down.

  • Reply to

    People have stopped listening to Pandora

    by zuma12324 Oct 13, 2014 11:16 AM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Oct 20, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    Yes, Pandora adds new bands and tunes all the time to the channels you create. You just "like" or "dislike" them as that pop into your channel's stream to play them more or less often. You can get a list of the tunes you liked and disliked for a given channel you have created. .

  • Reply to

    Cramer/Mad Money

    by tpljmpr_50 Oct 18, 2014 2:20 PM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Oct 20, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Cramer also said the "BearStearns is fine" just days before it went under. You can see it here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3FVBKic5Ek

  • Reply to

    When does merger take place?

    by crzyweasle Oct 16, 2014 9:17 AM
    crzyweasle crzyweasle Oct 17, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    Thank-you.

  • crzyweasle by crzyweasle Oct 16, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    Look at cash flow compared to market cap or EV. It's really good. That's why Warren Buffet is buying this. You get paid a nice dividend while the price catches up to the cash flow, too. Don't discount this stock. It should and will be selling for more once reality sinks in.

  • Can't find when merger takes place. Does anyone know?

TWO
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