I have been confused why they keep adding production all last year in Marcellus when market price is $1.0. My big question is what price is needed for conventional guys to add rigs again (forget the number but that is like 40% of the market??) ??
China stock market don't mean anything.....it could be back to 4k later in year..... its just a casino.
in 7 trading days market is down more than in the day after 9/11 Most stocks were already cheap ex the few dumb valuation stocks holding up the indexes.....450 of the 500 SPY stocks are probably very cheap here and ready to go up 20%
is 1500 wells a lot? “These projects are absolutely crucial, especially given the fact that more than 1,500 wells have been drilled and completed and are awaiting pipeline takeaway access,” said David Spigelmyer, president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, an industry trade group. This was from NOV article
we built 2500 and 2600 last 2 years so that would put us at 4500-4600. However we are losing supply and exports....there is every reason to think 2017 would be very bullish.....as bullish as this year is bearish. Because we killing off supply....but what price brings non shale supply back??? I believe that Shale can not do it all.....am i correct? If we need to bring non shale supply back on.....at what price would we need to see ?? Do they do it for less than $3.50? I have no idea
I was thinking same a few weeks ago.. Supply needs to fall 2 BCF to avoid this. I think it is falling however and i assume it will continue to fall. Any Experts.
It has come a long way interesting JAN 2017 hit 3.0 closed 2.99. $2.47 is 45% higher than 1.70 low on the spot. My guess is next 5% is down but the next few percent could be higher still....Nat gas stocks still seem way oversold even though some have bounced a lot given the recovery. I definitely wouldn't be shorting those still. But its all tricky to trade everything swings 4%+ on almost nothing daily.
These Temps are really quite warm for winter. They go into the negatives usually in the winter and we not seeing that.
They have enough coming in to pay for capital expenditures without drawing down revolver further. Things are not nearly as Dire as they looked 3 weeks ago.
Natural gas price seems out of the woods. UPL fell from $3 to 2 when Nat gas fell from $2 to 1.70. But we 2.47 now.
The recent inventory draws seem high given the warm weather.... And Question. My understanding is that traditional dry gas production non shale is a certain percentage of production (say 35% or something). Is it true that production will just continue to die off without an increase in price to say $3.5 or $4.0??
few other co's bothered to hedge on way down. They can ride out 2016 no problem. 2017 - 2018 who knows how high oil will be...could be $60.
There is nothing here for the shorts except chart pattern....All I can say is don't let the shorts have your shares and buy if you can hold for a few months.
Shorts have been selling this for months and months....this is back up the truck under $11
Market will bounce today and KBH will squeeze crazy...It is a wall street tradition to either squeeze or kill KBH
or at least $35.. It traded $38-42 with $61 crude last april.