This could go back to double digits who knows what its worth or what tech they got certainly not the algos trading it
I just bought more
dumbest market I've seen last 3 months
This is the most satanic dumb trading market I have seen in my lifetime.
I meant January looks like slightly above normal temperatures with very little variation below and above average. I don't see any 15 plus or minus degree deviations from normal...mostly within a few degrees.
i read that a rig is 4 times as productive and the wells are gushing like crazy. The Tech must be incredible.... All the co's say they are growing production..... That probably changes with next conference calls however.... They have no choice but to cut cap ex now. I'm real worried about the storage figure. 4200-4800 end of year appears to be where we are headed and we only have room for 4400. The media will be talking about running out of storage all summer prices will be so low. Even though supply demand is actually balancing and turning bullish. The industry will be a buy of a lifetime around Oct 2016 im guessing.
Im sure they are saving interest....but why not buy bonds back selectively at a discount with their revolver....They should buy some back at 70 cents on dollar or whatever they trade at. If they could redeem an entire bond issue using the revolver i would think they would be permitted to selectively buy back bonds at a discount too....
I see they used the new loan to pay off commercial paper ect......But do they still have the prior $2 billion line as well? If not than they are out of cash.... But i think they might still have the $2 billion?? At current prices i have them spending $200 million a quarter in capex more than they are bring in.... They will need to borrow another $800 million this year or cut way back.... I think it is finally time these companies wake up and actually cut production.
UPL is tricky though because only $300 million on revolver left so they can't fund cap ex at current prices for more than a few quarters. They will probably just go in hibernation and wait for next winter.
I think ultimately all the stocks will be good investments because even at current low prices the companies are not burning much cash...Nat gas could be back to $4 in the future and it would be business as usual. As long as Nat gas is close to $4 by the time the bonds roll over it should be good.
I think WLL is the best cheap call option in energy. They do not have a liquidity problem and you get a lot of oil for the price. All oils are bankrupt if oil price does not recover however.
What happens if the debt covenants are not met? Nat Gas will be low through October...Storage will likely exceed capacity later next year. 4500 storage seems like a slam dunk as Jan-march look like average weather. 2017 should be very bullish though. as supply will be cut alot.
Plus we have almost certainty of warmer winter ahead than this time last year that saw very cold jan feb march.... So I would say we are headed up toward 4600 Storage even with production cuts... Drastic cuts might save us.... Trade accordingly Buy the panics sell the rips and remember the forward curve is going to make UNG underperform as every roll will hurt as it is now.
I looked at the ratios last night and WLL is disconnected from reality at the current price relative to other oil stock prices.... I covered my short today and went long..... at $70 crude this is a $40 stock... Versus other oil co's that probably only have 50% upside at $70 crude. All oil stocks are just an expesive call option on the price of oil...Except WLL is a cheap call option from the numbers I crunched. Also their financial position is better than most...They raised $2 billion in the Spring. Have zero on revolver and $3.5 billion available...compared to other cos that have ton on the revolver and only a $500-1.5 billion cushion.
they have one of largest credit lines in industry at 3.5 billion.....so much cheaper than CLR its ridiculous.....of course every shale is worth zero if oil does not recover....but as a recovery play this one is out of line...it should be $15+ right now relative to the sector.