30K for the battery
10K for the raw materials and electronics for rest of vehicle
5K for high end components and drive unit
5K for assembly costs, fixed costs, plant, equipment, labor
5K in sunk costs
5K for warranty support, sales costs, transaction costs, recall support
60K is what it will cost them to build this vehicle.
Best case they lop off 10K on the battery price, and get down to 50K.
So at best, they sell the car at break-even. Best case there is no competition and all tax credits remain intact.
Best case is there is demand at 50K.
Originally they wanted to be at 40K for this vehicle.
Now they MUST get 50K to break even and likely will have to price it at 60K to break even.
Im not sure they will want to build this car.
On the other hand, a high end p85D version of a sports car, Ferrari style, could get them margins of 50K per car. Why not build that instead and give up on the Model 3?
Yahoo is going to announce a gigantic tax savings, divesting some big assets, and then its merger with AOL.
Yahoo is currently around $51 a share, should be approx $75 after all this is said and done. Which is in the next 45 days.
Highly recommended that you add a big Yahoo position.
Swap out AOL shares for Yahoo shares and options.
Amazon still doesn't make money. Bezos does not care about his investors, nor does Musk.
Wall street is a tool they use to gather capital to play out their hobby.
They make the best battery currently that they CAN make.
Its absurd for some paid pumper to post an article intimating that there is a SECRET battery upgrade that will go 500 miles that Tesla has been hiding from Wall Street.
How absurd is that?
Sure one day there will be 500 mile batteries. Just not today.
Great market conditions cannot sustain a sick company for too long.
We are gonna retrace back down to the very weak and sickly levels from Monday. Then test 178.
Bad for sales. Norway is going to the poor house with break even oil sales. No spare coin for cars that are ill suited for cold climates.
I agree. Safest short in the market. I shall be poised to take advantage of the tax selling that starts the week of Jan 2015.
Winter sales of a car that loses half its range on cold days are going to suck. Meanwhile, oil prices generally fall during times like these. I expect to see oil under $50. Gasoline at $1.35 a gallon.
This stock is driven by real news but also by market rallies and pullbacks. The technical breakdown is dire I agree, but we did just have a 2 day rocket fueled mega fest of market strength.
Money mindlessly is being put back into Tesla. I feel that we need to see more actual news of the decay and delays in the company. I shall patiently wait for them.
I totally agree. Not to give them ideas because I want them to fail and then re-emerge after total meltdown and do it right one day.
If you can make a sports car that has acceleration on a level of a Bugatti Veryon, why not charge top dollar, crazy prices for it?
Ill tell you why. Its not about the money for Musk. Its about a legacy and he will run as a non-profit to get there.
Foolish clown. You refer to quality and I reference Rolls Royce. Then you say there is not enough passion?
This is Elons hobby. Too bad he has no passion to make money.
They key to focus on is this. Any deal, merger, buyout, reorganization or other partnership will enhance shareholder value.
If Starboard is involved, I assure you that maximum tax avoidance will occur.
The premise that quality guarantees success is false. Its not my premise. It belong to the lunatic long that insists since Tesla is a nice vehicle, it cannot possibly fail.
You should not feel good at all about your long position. And you will feel much less good about it in the next few months.
Its called market saturation. Its called margin compression. Its called competition.
Its called opportunity cost (oil is plunging)
Thats what will take those growth numbers and smash them.
And no, building 33K cars in 2014 and then making 40K cars in 2015 is not wild and crazy growth.
So you are not only a bad investor, but you are a mindless liberal too? One who hates coal and oil and all those bad republican texans with the big hats?
And the ocean is rising a few inches an hour? Mother earth is dying and this green Solyndra style company is your way of fighting back against the establishment?
When you lose all your money, which will be very soon, I do hope you are denied benefits, disability and food stamps and are forced to put the fries in the bag and hand them out with a smile. Savvy?
Amazon was at 50 then up to 400, now under 300.
Tesla was at 50, then 280, now under 200.
You get ONE chance to skyrocket. Then you have to meet the numbers.
Tesla and Amazon are missing now. over and over. MISS, MISS, cut estimates, MISS.
The targets set out years ago that got them the lofty valuations are not being met.
Amazon has no real competitors. It may eventually turn around.
Tesla will have competitors ten times its size that will come like a freight train when the time is right.
Be aware of what Tesla us up against.
Trendy and fancy only goes so far. You cannot make the every man car when you need to sell it for 60K to break even.
Massive companies like Toyota, Ford, GM, BMW, VW, etc...
They could have been in this business years ago. Same battery tech has been available for 8 years.
They looked at the numbers, the demand, and the costs and just said meh!
This car is not ready for primetime.
Charging stations. Range. Economies of scale. Just not ready yet.
Volt is a flop. Leaf is plain silly. And the S is a fad car for the wealthy and eco crowd.
Its not ready. Tesla is trying to reinvent the wheel. They will build all this build out and then a new, lean, hungry, probably Chinese, competitor will come and make the Model 3 for HALF what Musk needs to turn a profit.
This pop up company in 2019 will destroy Tesla.
Right when Tesla is supposed to be profitable, all of the sudden, it will not be.
THE END. GET OUT NOW. Tesla is doomed.
The car has two gigantic flaws. The fact that its electric and has very limited range and few recharging options.
Second, its competing against companys 20 times its size. They have ideas too and can come and smash the bug if they choose to.