Kid, HATS OFF to you! Where do you store such a trove of knowlege? Great story; Capt. Pearson is in the league of pilots like Sully of USAIR fame.
Bask in the late '70s, we were on a flight LAX to HNL when the pilot announced "you people on the right side may have seen the smoke, we've shut down one of the engines and we are diverting to SFO" NOT what you want to hear, even on a four engine plane. I try not to even think of such things on the more modern two engine planes and over-ocean flights. In millions of air miles, that episode is the only one I remember.
Kid, you and all should be thinking me today. I jumped out of my 'in at $114' trade yesterday, at $104. Apparently that's all i ttook to see a nice UP move today. I was at the point where further down would have started to be painful, at least psychically. I'll watch the up-move for a bit now.
I went in at $114 a month ago, and am VERY tempted to cut my losses now. There will be more up-down-sideways in the next month; if the down predominates as it has so far, I'll get back in lower. Or I'll lick my wounds and move on!
I feel your pain, Airborne. I flipped a bunch in at 114, and thought OK, it will bounce its way up to 120 sooner or later. I was kinda HOPING on the SOONER!
Myy, & Airborne, I won't argue with your short term analysis. Yep, we've stalled. Looking at the slightly longer term, UTX has mostly beaten the market (DJIA or S&P) most of the last couple years. Chart here on Yahoo and compare and in the 1 year or 5 year chart we're not doing badly. I'm an investor mostly (I'll flip in and out when I think I can maybe make $5 or more, sometimes quickly, sometimes over months) but I'm a buy and hold person. I'm still holding, (and have a short term trade in at $114, looking to see $119 in the sooner or later future).
I suppose it all depends on your time frame. On a short term basis, we've not performed well at all. Even just looking at the 12 month chart, against the S&P500, we are doing OK. Longer term, even better; as the fine print says, Past Performance does not indicate future performance. A lot will depend on the next quarter's results, both corporate performance wise, and stock market wise.
Airborne, your "You people had better do it!" comment reinforces my reply to Mac8260 above. Unless there is ownership of the actions and the results at ALL levels in the organization, ACE is just another piece of corporate BS. When there is understanding and ownership, ACE can be a powerful tool to improve every aspect of the business.
I'd suggest that ACE is not the reason you can't get the parts you need; ACE (5 why?) would ask "why don't we have the part?" and keep asking till the underlying root causes are identified, and then eliminated.
I've been in Manufacturing for 40+ years; ACE is neither great nor terrible until it is implemented. The implementation determines the success or failure of the program. When you told management "it would not work" you were telling management either that you did not want to change, or that you did not believe management would change; based on my experience, both are true.
Where ACE is effectively implemented, true change is achieved and results (COTD, FPY, COPQ, etc) all reflect the positive improvements. Where ACE is resisted, by management and by employees, nothing changes and ACE is blamed. Were I to conduct a RRCA on ACE Failures, I suspect that the root causes of failure can be shared between management & workers, with MANAGEMENT taking the larger share.
So are we peaking, or are we just moving along normally? I'll vote for moving along normally; looking at the 5-day chart adjacent to this page, doom seems possible. Looking at the two year chart, compared with the S&P500, we were beating till the Goodrich announcement, then got clobbered till about a year ago. Seems to me a good purchase for UTX; we've been generally beating the index since then. If we finish the year up 3 to 5%, It is an ok year.
the official answer seems to be that the failure was nothing to cause alarm. Time will tell.
Just my opinion, but trying to tweak W2B on his five or six year old prediction is kind of passe. Perhaps someday in the future circumstances will let us see a $30 UTX, but it won't be because of the melt-down of 2008 - 2009.
Kid, while I'm a long term optimist, this market seems a bit frothy. I haven't shifted strategy, but am watching closely too. The US economy seems to be improving, the world economy is not quite so robust. Let's hope that your condo proves to be a sweet deal for you. You've missed the bottom in Florida real estate, by the way.