I feel your pain, Airborne. I flipped a bunch in at 114, and thought OK, it will bounce its way up to 120 sooner or later. I was kinda HOPING on the SOONER!
Myy, & Airborne, I won't argue with your short term analysis. Yep, we've stalled. Looking at the slightly longer term, UTX has mostly beaten the market (DJIA or S&P) most of the last couple years. Chart here on Yahoo and compare and in the 1 year or 5 year chart we're not doing badly. I'm an investor mostly (I'll flip in and out when I think I can maybe make $5 or more, sometimes quickly, sometimes over months) but I'm a buy and hold person. I'm still holding, (and have a short term trade in at $114, looking to see $119 in the sooner or later future).
I suppose it all depends on your time frame. On a short term basis, we've not performed well at all. Even just looking at the 12 month chart, against the S&P500, we are doing OK. Longer term, even better; as the fine print says, Past Performance does not indicate future performance. A lot will depend on the next quarter's results, both corporate performance wise, and stock market wise.
Airborne, your "You people had better do it!" comment reinforces my reply to Mac8260 above. Unless there is ownership of the actions and the results at ALL levels in the organization, ACE is just another piece of corporate BS. When there is understanding and ownership, ACE can be a powerful tool to improve every aspect of the business.
I'd suggest that ACE is not the reason you can't get the parts you need; ACE (5 why?) would ask "why don't we have the part?" and keep asking till the underlying root causes are identified, and then eliminated.
I've been in Manufacturing for 40+ years; ACE is neither great nor terrible until it is implemented. The implementation determines the success or failure of the program. When you told management "it would not work" you were telling management either that you did not want to change, or that you did not believe management would change; based on my experience, both are true.
Where ACE is effectively implemented, true change is achieved and results (COTD, FPY, COPQ, etc) all reflect the positive improvements. Where ACE is resisted, by management and by employees, nothing changes and ACE is blamed. Were I to conduct a RRCA on ACE Failures, I suspect that the root causes of failure can be shared between management & workers, with MANAGEMENT taking the larger share.
So are we peaking, or are we just moving along normally? I'll vote for moving along normally; looking at the 5-day chart adjacent to this page, doom seems possible. Looking at the two year chart, compared with the S&P500, we were beating till the Goodrich announcement, then got clobbered till about a year ago. Seems to me a good purchase for UTX; we've been generally beating the index since then. If we finish the year up 3 to 5%, It is an ok year.
the official answer seems to be that the failure was nothing to cause alarm. Time will tell.
Just my opinion, but trying to tweak W2B on his five or six year old prediction is kind of passe. Perhaps someday in the future circumstances will let us see a $30 UTX, but it won't be because of the melt-down of 2008 - 2009.
Kid, while I'm a long term optimist, this market seems a bit frothy. I haven't shifted strategy, but am watching closely too. The US economy seems to be improving, the world economy is not quite so robust. Let's hope that your condo proves to be a sweet deal for you. You've missed the bottom in Florida real estate, by the way.
Kid, we're looking at a horizontal market this year, I fear. Up a bit, down a bit, sideways a LOT. UTX, ytd, is up a few percent, which is nothing to cause shame, but it won't, all by itself, pay for October weddings. IF we make it through the year positive, it is a good year.
Well five days later, 120 plus sure does look further away than it did on Monday!
How about, Coolwalt55, you predict 112 for next week, and maybe we're regain a bit of lost ground? ;)
Part of the decline in the mortgage index is due to the dearth of Re-Finance activity. Refinance doesn't seem to me to have much of a leading impact on construction; Re-Fi is done to reduce your costs on an existing residence. I don't expect that there is much re-fi activity underway to pull cash from existing properties these days, as was so common in the pre-bust days. Anyone who logically and financially COULD refi likely has long since done so. If you're still underwater, you can't do it financially; if you're only a few years from pay-off, you logically might not do it. I'm discounting the decline based on both the refi levels and the weather's impact in the short term. Now the longer term impact o fthe end of QE? That one remains to be seen, I do not have a crystal ball.
I'm just doing a sanity check here; advancing age means that sometimes I forget things, but I don't think I'm at the point where I am imagining things. Kid, did you have a prancing prediction up a few days ago, and did we have a few comments back and forth on that topic? Now, I don't see any of that thread. As I said, nothing more than trying to confirm my sanity.