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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

ctic_neutral 233 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 seconds ago Member since: Jul 14, 2004
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  • As SAE risk is diminishing with time and SP bias should be upward, going bigger on R&Rs, will have room at any time to R&R 500 shares across a $3.20 price range in $0.80 increments.

    This is my plan to "launder" substantial profits trading DVAX while also holding a substantial long position. If as I suspect it's a gradual move into the $2.25 range there will be lots of "churn".

    May the thumbs down come out in large quantities for a sound strategy, one that will net me serious trading gains while the thumbs keep thumbing down.

    P.S. Just picked up 1K R&R shares @14.64.

  • Reply to

    The time is near

    by tightdaddychuckster Dec 21, 2014 5:46 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 21, 2014 6:22 AM Flag

    I got sunshine, in my stomach
    Like I just rocked my baby to sleep
    I got sunshine in my stomach
    But I can't keep me from creeping sleep
    Sleep, deep in the deep

    Must tell myself
    That I'm not here
    I'm drowning in a liquid fear
    Bottled in
    A strong compression
    My distortion
    Shows obsession
    In the cave
    Get me out of this cave

    If I keep self-control
    I'll be safe in my soul
    And the childhood belief
    Brings a moment's relief
    But my cynic soon returns
    And the lifeboat burns
    My spirit just
    Never learns

  • Reply to

    am i mistaken

    by nicewander58 Dec 20, 2014 1:27 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 20, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    I am Job, I've been in this stock close to a decade. Unfortunately for my net worth, I am not S. Jobs.

  • Reply to

    In a few days

    by outboard.jack Dec 17, 2014 12:24 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 20, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    Thank you for your comment that I am pumping and pimping this stock. With such positive comments from board leaders like yourself on my pumping/pimping optimism, I hope to attain many "thumbs up."

  • ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    tsk tsk, there you go again Debbie Downer. Two thumbs down to you and more to follow.

    Forgetting DSMB, might "many thumbs up" Isaac be forgetting that FDA can at any time place a CLINICAL HOLD on any drug candidate? As a matter of fact, didn't that happen to a compound called Heplisav in a PIII trial a number of years ago? Or am I just a filthy lying shortie? Ah well, as the votes come in the "thumbs down" will point to the latter.

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    Hilarious, you're already one thumbs down for a well thought out, honest, and unbiased opinion. I ABSOLUTELY agree. I will pare shares substantially right in front of VRBPAC, can always buy back after if warranted. Were there to be another negative vote, downside is freaking catastrophic (60-80% IMO) as the specter of Heplisav never approved takes a step toward reality. Whereas upside on a positive vote is likely far less.

    Amazing the power of one pseudo-bureaucrat, Robert Daum. Wonder if people he knows profit enormously trading certain biotechs.

    In the meantime I have a come up with a plan to methodically trade the stock for profits that will add up considerably at the same time gradually paring back on shares. Lemme know if you want details.

    OMG, trading the stock!!! Death knell, a hailstorm of thumbs down about to strike. Followed by a death blow post from board leader jdoob.

  • Reply to

    Strange trades indeed

    by outboard.jack Dec 19, 2014 4:38 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Confucius say: "Careful what you ask for"

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    I don't disagree except on two points. In agreement, last 'x' years there were monster multi-baggers with minimal risk while here we languished. Can't be wed to something that fails to produce.

    Tend to disagree that next 6 months not a good time to hold this one, per my $2.25 target.

    Tend to disagree on blaming Gray. We are where we are entirely due to the previous administration. Dino & crew absolutely blew it; it's their $600,000 a year job to assure the company & shareholders don't get blindsided. To not have anticipated the basic numbers issue for a novel adjuvant borders on malfeasance, although possibly they were misled by FDA which wanted all those detailed blood workups in previous PIII whose detailed results were worth nothing - zippo - to VRBPAC.

    One hope here, in Grays presentation he mentioned more vaccines. That is a value proposition. But where are the PI or PII trials???

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    Martin's presentation to VRPBAC included a plan for a post-approval 30,000 subject "P4" trial. Despite that, the vote was 5-8.

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    To me that's a logical strategy. Assuming Heplisav approved and DVAX goes it alone on marketing/sales, as a newcomer to this aspect of the business, you've gotta focus somewhere. And logically you pick the US because with the CDC rec, you have a large hard-to-treat population.

    One thing I *think* I've learned is the despite the measured better efficacy of Heplisav in healthy adults, the current vaccines are very effective. Thus for a little-ole Dynavax, winning sales in the healthy population is mostly a marketing/sales battle. Where the giants like GSK and Merck show their muscle and tend to dominate.

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    I agree that even with a clean trial Daum may agrue against the vaccine, possibly in strong terms. Last vote was 8-5, assuming no turnover in committee menbers you'd think the same 5 are a shoe-in. Question is: can Daum carry the other 7 again assuming he is against. Possible.

    Nevertheless bettcha dollars to doughnuts we see at least $2.25 pre-VRBPAC assuming no SAEs. Question then would be: what to do before Daum comes to the plate. "Risk mitigation."

    This is new to me, can you elaborate or better yet point to company material?
    "buisness plan to commercialize the US market worth $270M for ALL players"

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Seriously though, barring any SAEs (whose likelihood diminishes each day/week/month), based on market cap prior to last VRBPAC and general "valuation inflation" in the biotech sector, I expect SP in the $2.25 range within a year. 50% ain't bad. But then as you point out, one probably gets that with GILD (love it!) at no risk. Interesting question though again assuming no SAEs, do we get sporadic runups say to $3?

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 19, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    HUH!?!!? Is this the same person who said:

    "First, Raven and CTIC bashing DVAX? Unheard of in the old world order when the stock was breaching $5 pps.....I know, Daum blah blah blah and the lousy share price with the matching delay to redo the trial.....but what really has changed?"

    Or has someone hacked/breached your account?

  • My name is Jeff Sledgehammer, there can be no doubt about it. Sledge. Sledge.

  • ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 18, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    Heathen, study yee old Genesis and be healed!

  • Reply to

    In a few days

    by outboard.jack Dec 17, 2014 12:24 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 18, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    outboard, one or more posters here, who I assume a not bio PhDs, have been propagating (quite repetitively) that there is something special and magical about the date Dec. 20. I don't think you have, but I think the repetition may have gotten to you. Despite the thumbs down in droves that this post will get, I consider that hogwash. It is FACT that science cannot yet determine why the onset of adverse immune reactions. While there is data that they TEND to occur within 2 months of injection, there is no guarantee an SAE still does not pop up.

    I would rephrase to: Day-by-day the scale SLOWLY continues edging in favor of Heplisav. There will be no extra shift on Dec 20 or any other "magical" date very near term.

    Next consequential date is next DSMB statement, slated Feb. Period.

  • Reply to

    Fast Eddie's games.......

    by theblackraven08 Dec 16, 2014 8:53 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 16, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Oops, mixing "personas" :-). But the question is why?

  • Re-dipped too fast yesterday, 400@14.85. Nevertheless I think it'll be a pretty quick "beer money" turnaround.

    As I see it, only an SAE could kill a very solid R&R platform we have here.

  • Reply to

    Fast Eddie's games.......

    by theblackraven08 Dec 16, 2014 8:53 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 16, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Only a total fool with IQ 50 could be fooled into thinking a reverse split was growth? 'Cause if you look at your stock portfolio, do you see 10x the money in your account. And what fool can't look at a stock graph and see that the line is flat and didn't spike vertically 10x?

    Thus your "feigned growth" line of argumentation is foolishness. Such a stretch does make me wonder why you'd author such a patently absurd statement. So, why?

  • ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Dec 16, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    Big Brother LOVES your Taxes : good one!

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