As SAE risk is diminishing with time and SP bias should be upward, going bigger on R&Rs, will have room at any time to R&R 500 shares across a $3.20 price range in $0.80 increments.
This is my plan to "launder" substantial profits trading DVAX while also holding a substantial long position. If as I suspect it's a gradual move into the $2.25 range there will be lots of "churn".
May the thumbs down come out in large quantities for a sound strategy, one that will net me serious trading gains while the thumbs keep thumbing down.
P.S. Just picked up 1K R&R shares @14.64.
I got sunshine, in my stomach
Like I just rocked my baby to sleep
I got sunshine in my stomach
But I can't keep me from creeping sleep
Sleep, deep in the deep
Must tell myself
That I'm not here
I'm drowning in a liquid fear
A strong compression
In the cave
Get me out of this cave
If I keep self-control
I'll be safe in my soul
And the childhood belief
Brings a moment's relief
But my cynic soon returns
And the lifeboat burns
My spirit just
Thank you for your comment that I am pumping and pimping this stock. With such positive comments from board leaders like yourself on my pumping/pimping optimism, I hope to attain many "thumbs up."
tsk tsk, there you go again Debbie Downer. Two thumbs down to you and more to follow.
Forgetting DSMB, might "many thumbs up" Isaac be forgetting that FDA can at any time place a CLINICAL HOLD on any drug candidate? As a matter of fact, didn't that happen to a compound called Heplisav in a PIII trial a number of years ago? Or am I just a filthy lying shortie? Ah well, as the votes come in the "thumbs down" will point to the latter.
Hilarious, you're already one thumbs down for a well thought out, honest, and unbiased opinion. I ABSOLUTELY agree. I will pare shares substantially right in front of VRBPAC, can always buy back after if warranted. Were there to be another negative vote, downside is freaking catastrophic (60-80% IMO) as the specter of Heplisav never approved takes a step toward reality. Whereas upside on a positive vote is likely far less.
Amazing the power of one pseudo-bureaucrat, Robert Daum. Wonder if people he knows profit enormously trading certain biotechs.
In the meantime I have a come up with a plan to methodically trade the stock for profits that will add up considerably at the same time gradually paring back on shares. Lemme know if you want details.
OMG, trading the stock!!! Death knell, a hailstorm of thumbs down about to strike. Followed by a death blow post from board leader jdoob.
I don't disagree except on two points. In agreement, last 'x' years there were monster multi-baggers with minimal risk while here we languished. Can't be wed to something that fails to produce.
Tend to disagree that next 6 months not a good time to hold this one, per my $2.25 target.
Tend to disagree on blaming Gray. We are where we are entirely due to the previous administration. Dino & crew absolutely blew it; it's their $600,000 a year job to assure the company & shareholders don't get blindsided. To not have anticipated the basic numbers issue for a novel adjuvant borders on malfeasance, although possibly they were misled by FDA which wanted all those detailed blood workups in previous PIII whose detailed results were worth nothing - zippo - to VRBPAC.
One hope here, in Grays presentation he mentioned more vaccines. That is a value proposition. But where are the PI or PII trials???
Martin's presentation to VRPBAC included a plan for a post-approval 30,000 subject "P4" trial. Despite that, the vote was 5-8.
To me that's a logical strategy. Assuming Heplisav approved and DVAX goes it alone on marketing/sales, as a newcomer to this aspect of the business, you've gotta focus somewhere. And logically you pick the US because with the CDC rec, you have a large hard-to-treat population.
One thing I *think* I've learned is the despite the measured better efficacy of Heplisav in healthy adults, the current vaccines are very effective. Thus for a little-ole Dynavax, winning sales in the healthy population is mostly a marketing/sales battle. Where the giants like GSK and Merck show their muscle and tend to dominate.
I agree that even with a clean trial Daum may agrue against the vaccine, possibly in strong terms. Last vote was 8-5, assuming no turnover in committee menbers you'd think the same 5 are a shoe-in. Question is: can Daum carry the other 7 again assuming he is against. Possible.
Nevertheless bettcha dollars to doughnuts we see at least $2.25 pre-VRBPAC assuming no SAEs. Question then would be: what to do before Daum comes to the plate. "Risk mitigation."
This is new to me, can you elaborate or better yet point to company material?
"buisness plan to commercialize the US market worth $270M for ALL players"
Seriously though, barring any SAEs (whose likelihood diminishes each day/week/month), based on market cap prior to last VRBPAC and general "valuation inflation" in the biotech sector, I expect SP in the $2.25 range within a year. 50% ain't bad. But then as you point out, one probably gets that with GILD (love it!) at no risk. Interesting question though again assuming no SAEs, do we get sporadic runups say to $3?
HUH!?!!? Is this the same person who said:
"First, Raven and CTIC bashing DVAX? Unheard of in the old world order when the stock was breaching $5 pps.....I know, Daum blah blah blah and the lousy share price with the matching delay to redo the trial.....but what really has changed?"
Or has someone hacked/breached your account?
outboard, one or more posters here, who I assume a not bio PhDs, have been propagating (quite repetitively) that there is something special and magical about the date Dec. 20. I don't think you have, but I think the repetition may have gotten to you. Despite the thumbs down in droves that this post will get, I consider that hogwash. It is FACT that science cannot yet determine why the onset of adverse immune reactions. While there is data that they TEND to occur within 2 months of injection, there is no guarantee an SAE still does not pop up.
I would rephrase to: Day-by-day the scale SLOWLY continues edging in favor of Heplisav. There will be no extra shift on Dec 20 or any other "magical" date very near term.
Next consequential date is next DSMB statement, slated Feb. Period.
Re-dipped too fast yesterday, email@example.com. Nevertheless I think it'll be a pretty quick "beer money" turnaround.
As I see it, only an SAE could kill a very solid R&R platform we have here.
Only a total fool with IQ 50 could be fooled into thinking a reverse split was growth? 'Cause if you look at your stock portfolio, do you see 10x the money in your account. And what fool can't look at a stock graph and see that the line is flat and didn't spike vertically 10x?
Thus your "feigned growth" line of argumentation is foolishness. Such a stretch does make me wonder why you'd author such a patently absurd statement. So, why?