You are aware the shareholders are primarily institutions and your pittance shares count for so incredibly close to zero percent that we can just round the number and call it nothing, don't you?
And you are aware that institutions like icing a quick profit and moving onto the next profitable target, aren't you?
Now this of course is where we vary in opinion, I don't think there's been a "whack-a-mole" game. Rather, I think a retail investor sucker is born every second and most message board posters (us) are of that breed. Meaning looking back, we assumed these guys were brilliant, knew what they were doing, and would march Heplisav along to the finish line. What we learned is that while they may be good chemists, as corporate leaders, advocates for shareholders, and players in the arena of clinical trials and FDA, they were run-of-the-mill.
On my job, I'm paid decent change to not miss a beat, and rarely do I miss one. And I never miss a big one. And by big one in the case of DVAX, that was total lack of anticipation that when it came to the practitioners (VRBPAC and Euro counterparts), these folks wanted to hear large numbers of Heplisav recipients, and weren't much interested in the intense study of anca and p-anca levels in blood samples of a relatively small PIII trial. I think FDA said give us all those measurements and DVAX produced, but COMPLETELY missed the boat that there was another less technical forum standing in their path, and what the considerations should have been for that (large trial size).
I suspect in that regard Gray is a seasoned street player. But it remains to be seen if his goal is to reward shareholders or to reward himself. That's the worry, for example he could sell this thing on the cheap and parachute away into the sunset. Or alternatively keep it as his on little fiefdom where the bottom line is not job #1.
To Dino's credit, I recall little if any M&A chatter. That all came from this little circus. ... Trying to learn and retain these lessons in reality ...
Your complete and utter confidence I suppose should be commended, and my large long position hopes your unbridled optimism is warranted.
However, having been in DVAX close to a decade experience absolutely and utterly dictates "be careful" and be ready for unexpected negative surprises. And, trade this sucker around your core position, especially when the chance of a negative surprise looks to be low compared to potential positives. (Exactly now being a fine example). The goal is to make money, not cheerlead for a corporate entity whose actions and goals may not be in complete alignment with rewarding shareholders, i.e. a company with a track record of missteps.
Just like it happened after the last PIII trial. Unfortunately in that case Dino apparently decided not to tell shareholders about the likes of GSK, MRK, PFE, NOV and so on lined up outside his office shouting higher and higher bids.
BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. right stoovah?
It may be time to pull in the quantum mechanics experts. Where is Circus Midway when you really need him?
... will you take 'em off my hands. Better get 'em before they become more scarce ...
Selling at a loss is ALWAYS smart if there is potential large downside ahead. Considering he could have picked it up CHEAPER at a later juncture where risk was less, had he done that (picked 'em back up cheaper after full enrollment announced) having earlier taken a LOSS, that would have been a very smart play.
Unlike we retail investors who too often take far too much risk, the bigger players place bets much more rationally. I think what we are seeing is that bigger players are beginning to see a positive risk/reward ratio given all shots of Heplisav applied and no SAEs thus far.
In that regard, I put out one of my 5K share trading blocks at $1.6 when I saw that price. It sat there, very little trading activity for 5 min. Then suddenly bam, 80K shares changed hands and poof they were gone. I of course hope to reload lower ...
MOST IMPORTANT and it unfortunately will fall on deaf ears and we'll nevertheless see the usual fluffy/pumpy postings, if the SP runs up some, then at some price point(s) those same players will assess risk/reward as no longer positive, and poof, down we go as they smartly ice profit. (Note - I am not implying I'm smart with little R&R trades as above; I've held far too large a long position through the most high risk time spans, and that looking back was dumb. Raven was smart to sell when he did, although I think he'sdalso have been smart to have been slowly picking shares back since full enrollment announced, assuming he's want to get back involved in this HIGH-RISK game which clearly he's had enough of, so good for him).
If so, does the fact we plummeted early in the day and now are up only a measly 4 cents mean the offer is $1.50 a share? Hmmmm
Selling slow down quite a bit from this morning, perhaps a good sign that some don't want to get out really, really bad.
Here was where the wind went out of my sails ...
DR. AIR: It must be here somewhere, but I am missing it. Are you following these people for hepatitis B infection after vaccination?
DR. DAUM: We will ask the sponsor for a response.
DR. MARTIN: We are not.