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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

ctic_neutral 102 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 4:03 PM Member since: Jul 14, 2004
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  • Reply to

    BOOM

    by outboard.jack Sep 19, 2014 3:51 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 19, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    You ain't kidding, when the CAPTAIN speaks, people listen. Took advantage of it to dump my very recently acquired 5K trading shares ($1.35) at $1.45.

    Been in DVAX way way too long to not take a quick R&R profit, instead of hoping this is the beginning of "the run."

  • Reply to

    Raven, no news in a sense is good news?

    by ctic_neutral Sep 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 19, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    Your fractional investing point is entertaining by the way, if 3 billion had been spent would it be an even better "fractional deal". The one sure thing one can derive from the large expenditure is that the program has been mismanaged; i.e. shareholders have held the bag for poor corporate direction/decisions/strategies.

  • Reply to

    Raven, no news in a sense is good news?

    by ctic_neutral Sep 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 19, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    Capt is fully in charge of the facts, knows these are not spun or loaded questions, and will correct if/as necessary. Based on his past comprehensive responses, he will speculate on value if approved. So save your self some keystrokes and await a response.

  • Reply to

    Raven, no news in a sense is good news?

    by ctic_neutral Sep 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 19, 2014 7:42 AM Flag

    Capt, welcome back, I suppose you've been here all along, but ignoring the chatter. Thoughts on the evaluation of the stock at this time as with dilution we're $1.35 and near 400M market cap?

    Do you know the deal on patents and patent expiration?

    Do you view pipeline as weak with the demise of the lupus compound?

    Are you aware of Heplisav competitors on the horizon?

    What do you make of Eddie Gray, former 2nd-3rd in command at the might GSK leaving there any coming aboard the struggling DVAX?

    Assuming no SAEs, do you think safety database after this trial is enough to satisfy Daum and the FDA?

    Thx,
    c_n

  • I think a trial SAE likely a material event and must be reported? If so, with each day of silence we are a day closer to what presumably would be a positive update from the DSMB?

  • ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 17, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    Loose lips cost Us in our first PIII ? Not sure what that means.

    Interesting I'd thought of that too, a signal of some sort. A year ago on a golf course who-knows-where Eddie could have told his fellow golfers, now there's gonna be a smoke signal ...

    24 will mean ...
    25 will mean ...
    and 26 will mean ...

    A possible means of signaling insider info, be it positive or negative.

  • ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 17, 2014 7:33 AM Flag

    The silence is interesting and slightly disconcerting. My -hope- is that along with the threat of RS, these are tactics to hold down SP in anticipation of a sale on the cheap. While I once thought this could be a golden goose, it's been way way too many years; I'll take what I can get and move on (to premier cos like GILD).

    As I assume an SAE is a "material event" I'm assuming the silence is not boding poorly for the PIII trial. Any other thoughts Nokia?

  • Reply to

    Sold all, went short in the $4.teens

    by ctic_neutral Jul 14, 2014 3:56 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 16, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    Covered last 1000 short at $2.50. Sadly, shorting this company when the handwriting was clearly on the wall was the only little win. I lost a lot long in the TC-5214 days.

    This is now a zombie company, likely to SLOWLY keep heading down, although obviously they are guarding remaining cash carefully. Execs to keep bringing home the bacon though ...

  • ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 16, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Irrespective of that, just picked up 5K R&R shares @1.35 Raven.

    While clearly you took a pounding getting back in this one before Daum, you have to admit that barring a trial SAE, it should be up from here, standard from the "Biotech Trading Handbook" (stock prices tend to rise as trials progress).

    If you believe Heplisav safe, you might consider a R&R play here.

  • Reply to

    So, where are all the saviors today???

    by theblackraven08 Sep 5, 2014 10:59 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 5, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Angling for 5K R&R shares at $1.36, Raven.

  • Reply to

    What is a reasonable timeline?

    by dnb2020 Sep 3, 2014 12:57 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 3, 2014 7:45 PM Flag

    If by move "you", you mean the stock price, yes it will. Bio is hot right now and fingers crossed this follow-on larger trial satisfies the authorities if no SAEs. That (fingers crossed included) is likely the professional investment mindset. I of course am a retail investor, so take that for what it's worth.

    But fool me once (first PIII trial), fool me twice (second PIII trial), good DSMB news will not move the price a lot IMO, as investors have been bitten multiple times.

  • Reply to

    What is a reasonable timeline?

    by dnb2020 Sep 3, 2014 12:57 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 3, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    This management team, amazingly, seems even more tight-lipped than the previous. As if no PR dept exists. Whether that is positive or negative or neutral is absolutely unknowable.

    Assuming no SAEs, it appears a periodic positive nod from the DSMB is the only thing that'll highlight the company and presumably move up the SP -modestly-.

  • Reply to

    The crash-n-burn dujour.......

    by theblackraven08 Sep 2, 2014 12:40 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 2, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    Ah hah! Very good, thanks for that input, you clearly "know stuff."

  • Reply to

    The crash-n-burn dujour.......

    by theblackraven08 Sep 2, 2014 12:40 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Sep 2, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    As you well know Raven, Heplisav will, yet again, prove superior in terms of efficacy. Safety is the potential issue.

    Reminds me again of the question I've posed before, why not run a superiority trial, seems like that would hold more water w/ committee & FDA. Not that they don't see superiority in the data, but to reject a compound demonstrated superior, who knows, even Dr. Doom might give second thought to that.

  • Reply to

    OK, so what have I missed the past year?

    by dnb2020 Aug 26, 2014 3:50 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Aug 28, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    The less simple fact is the FDA is not convinced the science works safely compared to what is currently on the market.

    Where there's smoke and noise (Daum, FDA, etc) one has to assume there is chance of fire. In fact, last VRBAC committee could be termed a "firestorm".

  • Reply to

    Sentiment

    by nokia700 Aug 27, 2014 3:07 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Aug 28, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Congrats playing the DVAX rollercoaster, even if accidentally. News will be slow IMO. Hopefully we here a positive somewhere along the way from the DSMB, which might be good for 10-20 cents.

  • Reply to

    Sentiment

    by nokia700 Aug 27, 2014 3:07 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Aug 27, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    Agree, hold. I hold some long and *currently* trade some long. Meaning I think the likelihood of a company-destroying trial SAE small, and obviously there will be an upward bias as current trial progresses.

    Make no underestimate, a trial SAE would be devastating.

  • Reply to

    Time for another reality check....

    by jdoobie00 Aug 26, 2014 1:56 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Aug 27, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Actually your dead wrong in a lot of ways. Like me, Raven admits he's a relatively uninformed retail investor. What "finely tuned message", I find his stuff pretty "raw" and thus it tends to be funny.

    It does seem like a bit of an obsession though. In that regard hoping Raven didn't bet big when he got back in the stock pre-Daum debacle. I recall him posting back then that he was picking back up shares.

    Raven is absolutely correct in his message that owning a struggling biotech like DVAX is dangerous. He and I have both (repeatedly) experienced the DVAX school of hard knocks. Fortunately I've also traded the stock (R&R) last 5 years in addition to holding long. Had I not made good change along the way trading, I'd be significantly worse off. Thus based on years of experience I reject the concept of JUST hold your shares. Rather a hybrid strategy is much more in order here, as history has REPEATEDLY proved.

  • Reply to

    OK, so what have I missed the past year?

    by dnb2020 Aug 26, 2014 3:50 PM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Aug 27, 2014 7:23 AM Flag

    Facts are not ""bashing":
    1. Major dilution: market cap at current $1.45 is 380M. Market cap at our previous lofty $5 was $500M. You do the math. Reverse split approved.
    2. Lupus candidate DV1179 failed all endpoints, GSK "$800 million deal" effectively dead, DVAX having reaped (and spent) all of maybe $30M total.
    3. Post-Daum, FDA said it wanted a safety database of 30,000. DVAX responded no-can-do, database will be under 15,000 after this trial. That is a risk.
    4. Highly touted Universal Flu vaccine as we know just "disappeared" from the pipeline a couple years back with nary a word from the company. Not a peep???
    5. What do we know about Heplisav patent expiration as the years wile away? Further we've always known there could be IP issues from TLR patent holders like Coley (now part of Pfizer I think).
    6. Partnered asthma candidate progressing. Good, but that makes DVAX exactly a 2-trick pony. Not a pipeline any biotech could brag about.

    Most disconcerting is that in the 5+ years screwing around with Heplisav, the pipeline has shrunk, not expanded. That is a BIG negative, companies of this sort typically grow value developing a platform and portfolio, this company has IMO been very mismanaged.

    Nevertheless I maintain a reduced but still large long position. Assuming no SAEs (a good bet but absolutely not guaranteed), SP will run up. However, given market cap + risks, I don't see any run-up much surpassing $3, if it even gets there.

    I'd be happy if the Earle sold us back to the mothership for $3, ecstatic at $4.

  • Reply to

    $1.33?

    by theblackraven08 Aug 21, 2014 11:00 AM
    ctic_neutral ctic_neutral Aug 21, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Do you own ANYTHING else? Or are you betting the farm and it's mortgage you took out to double down?

DVAX
1.44+0.09(+6.67%)Sep 19 4:15 PMEDT

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