Both interesting and hilarious Raven. In other news I lucked out and picked up 5K R&R shares 2 days ago $1.34. Dumped them today $1.51. "More than beer money." Still holding another 5K R&R shares picked up $1.38 a couple weeks ago.
If one ---assumes--- Heplisav safe meaning minimal risk of SAEs in the current trial, this is a great time to both hold some shares long and R&R along the way.
You ought to join in for a little R&R fun, we could compare moves.
Action like today is the reason I'll take a behemoth like GILD over EDAP. EDAP getting walloped on high volume and no news. It's ALWAYS the case w/little chump companies that we retail investors are "the last to know.".
In contrast, GILD up another percent, yawn.
If you are basing your investing actions on essentially random message board postings, I recommend you re-consider your entire approach. For instance, consider putting your money in a mutual fund or an index like the S&P 500.
"It's the Science". We all have been saying that for years. However, DVAX (unfortunately) proves it's not just the science, it's about running clinical trials and navigating agencies like the FDA and the EMEA counterpart, and getting an approval. Thus here we are at a measly $1.41.
"Why would GSK promise $800MM on a science that was UN-VALIDATED, UNSAFE, UNPROVEN?" PROMISE is the key word, they haven't actually paid more than chump change. A measly $10 million (if I recall correctly) up front and a VERY occasional relatively small milestone payment to lay 4 lottery bets on a company that, as it turns out, has proven to be quite inept. Surely they (& all pharmas) toss out plenty of these little lottery bets - NOTHING SPECIAL HERE.
For what they signed up for (not Heplisav), I'd assume the science was validated (pre-clinical lab work & studies), but with any substantive number of human subjects these programs still remain NOT PROVEN SAFE and NOT PROVEN EFFICACIOUS (that requires a successful PIII trial, these program are like SNAILS and aren't even close to PIII).
"Who WOULD stay 4 years waiting around for something which might not be VALID?" GSK and AstraZ would!!! There is no incremental cost to hanging in there, in hopes this ONE OF MANY LOTTERIES they are playing might turn into something.
You underestimate. With the rampant sex that's going on everywhere (for example our town has declared Aug 1 as "free sex day"), there will be a resulting tremendous increase in population. Therefore there will be even bigger epidemic than you predict. This will only get MUCH worse! Based on this analysis, DVAX = $70.00 AT LEAST.
Good question. We ought to have a weigh-in from the DSMB periodically, hopefully telling that safety-wise trial can continue. Considering enrollment started April but not projected to be completed until EOY, not sure when we'll hear, although I'd think first report should be pretty soon.
Years ago I suggested taking a look at TRGT, TC5214 looked to be a no-brainer after superb results in a double blinded placebo controlled large PII trial. So impressive that AstraZeneca signed on to a cool up-front $200M cash payment + running all the PIII trials. In an industry shocker, TC5214 failed in multiple PIII trials.
On recent failure of yet another compound, I sold my remaining shares and went short TRGT. In the money short ...
Market cap $360M. Low assuming Heplisav is ever approved, and after all this years we realize that's an IF.
Should you think this a no-brainer winner, check out Appendix 6 of the VRBPAC document, which comes right up if you google "HEPLISAV VRBPAC". This is NOT a no-brainer winner, there is substantial risk.
Picked up 5K trading shares (long) today, $1.38.
Have been long shares since the heady days of TC-5214. But since the TC-5214 demise, have been selling shares occasionally. Especially after the follow-on demise of TC-5619. IMO the only reason to hold was the potential of the Alzheimers compound. Now it too has failed. One has to heavily question the value of anything in the pipeline.
Given the news and what I perceived as a "gift" in the $4.15 range, I sold all remaining long shares and took a similar sized short position.
Aside from cash, and the potential tax writeoff to any acquirer, I don't see much if any value here. Just a zombie that'll slowly burn through $ with time.
As far as I know there are 2 good reasons a company might do a reverse:
1) Avoid delisting if stock goes sub-$1 for too long (note delisting is appealable)
2) Get stock to $5 or so to allow more institutions to participate
On #1, DVAX stock price has settled well above $1.
On #2, DVAX recently sold a major stock offering, and has multiple years cash to fund operations: what need to lure new institutional investors?
So why propose a reverse split, which facts show are typically detrimental to shareholders. I can think of a couple reasons, neither pleasant:
a) Fear of Heplisav trial SAEs, which totally crater the stock.
b) To cheapen the stock, possibly for company sale on the cheap.
Intelligent comments/discussion encouraged (juvenile berhavior discouraged).