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Magnum Hunter Resources Corp. Message Board

cuda68300 135 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 18, 2014 11:34 AM Member since: Oct 17, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Air Permit?

    by mhrbagholder Sep 18, 2014 11:04 AM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 18, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    They're waiting on an air permit for the stewart winland Marcellus wells. They had a delay getting air permits for a compressor station for the pipeline once before (I think, it was a few months back). Not sure if its MHR dropping the ball, the locals being a little overwhelmed with all the activity, or both.

  • Reply to

    Ormet wells

    by cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 2:40 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 18, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Exactly, its not an industry or a region to work in where you can target specific dates 3 months out. I'd prefer they get rid of that slide, and instead say we are currently drilling pads x,y,z, drilling and fracing take about this many days, so we anticipate pads x, y, and z coming on to production sometime in the fall. Just dial back how precise they are trying to be.

  • Reply to

    Ormet wells

    by cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 2:40 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    Cimarron - when it changes every month, its not anything..there are wells whose results are overdo by 6 months. Dont put it out there with specific dates, and then miss the dates horribly. Its called communicating to investors.

  • Reply to

    Ormet wells

    by cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 2:40 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    We agree that management has to get their act together so the shareholders get paid.

  • Reply to

    Ormet wells

    by cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 2:40 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Na the story is the same, but just stop having their mouth write checks that their #$%$ cant cash.

  • Reply to

    Ormet wells

    by cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 2:40 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    And drilling one less well w/ estimated production of over 3,000 boe/d helps hit that target rate how? Im guessing they dropped one Ormet to assure the other 3 come online before year end, but how short sighted is that? Just hook the damn wells up, stop promising dates you never make, and get rid of that whole slide.

  • cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    I think its much more likely PBF buys another company than someone taking them out.

  • Reply to

    Ormet wells

    by cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 2:40 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    Yea, one less Ormet well vs last month.

  • Reply to

    Pipeline in New Presentation

    by jms54 Sep 16, 2014 1:42 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Because the deal was between MHR and Morgan Stanley Infrastructure, not MS as a whole. And pretty sure with Dodd Frank MS isnt allowed to buy half of an E&P business for its own account. MSI is allowed to own commodity transport businesses since they and GS were grandfathered in from the exemption that affects every other large financial institution.

    If the fact that Gary Evans has told you that drilling Marcellus and Utica wells generates the highest rates of returns for shareholders isnt enough, the fact that every other E&P is doing the same thing MHR is doing with the pipeline is further proof that you are incorrect in your assumption that the IRR of the pipeline is higher than the IRR of drilling.

  • Reply to

    Pipeline in New Presentation

    by jms54 Sep 16, 2014 1:42 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 17, 2014 7:41 AM Flag

    And every other small and midcap E&P, including AR and CNX, both of which are large local peers, are planning on an IPO of their midstream systems in order to fund drilling. Further proof that drilling is a higher return activity than pipeline ownership

  • Reply to

    Pipeline in New Presentation

    by jms54 Sep 16, 2014 1:42 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    Ok if you want to own a pipeline buisness, you're in the wrong stock, since the vast, vast majority of cap ex MHR spends is spent drilling. Second, if MHR's oil and gas wells deplete, pipeline volumes deplete - the pipeline only succeeds as long as drilling in the basin continues successfully, and since MHR is a top 2 company pumping gas through the system, if they drill less, volumes will grow less quickly. And trust me the IRRs in the pipeline business are much lower than drilling oil and gas wells. MLPs talk about rates of return in the 20% range, everyone in the Utica and rich marcellus is talking about IRRs of between 35% and 100%.

  • Reply to

    Pipeline in New Presentation

    by jms54 Sep 16, 2014 1:42 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    Drilling Utica wells at 50%+ and up IRRs will increase shareholder value more than investing in the pipeline. MHR isn't going to spin the Eureka MLP out to shareholders anytime soon, probably not ever- they need the cash.

  • cuda68300 by cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    The Ormet #7-15 UH well disappeared from August to Sept. Also if they're still waiting on permits not sure the SW gets on in the next 4 days. Hopefully Gary adds a lot of color at the conference today.

  • Reply to

    GE to Present Today

    by boonenrgtrader Sep 16, 2014 2:54 AM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 16, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    Eureka Hunter transaction valuing the system at $1 billion just announced, so yea I think he's got news.

  • Reply to

    Magnum Hunter/Eclipse

    by jansonnl Sep 14, 2014 2:58 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 15, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Meant under $6, not under $5. Under $5 I'd back the truck up though.

  • Reply to

    Magnum Hunter/Eclipse

    by jansonnl Sep 14, 2014 2:58 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 15, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    I like MHR under $5, MRD is sort of interesting but I'd like to see more data from them, and I think HK is interesting here too, but its a volatile stock in a play that they havent determined optimal completion rates yet, and it seems to be one of the more challenging places in the US to drill.

    I think oil prices could continue to come under pressure in the US, and I think last winter showed the market that natural gas can get burned very quickly if it gets cold - so I'd rather be exposed to low cost natural gas drillers than oil names. I also think demand for nat gas will ramp in late 2015 and beyond as export facilities come online.

  • Reply to

    Magnum Hunter/Eclipse

    by jansonnl Sep 14, 2014 2:58 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 14, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    Production there is running at under 80 MMcfe/d but the company has a market cap of $2.7 billion. You get more bang for your buck in other names

  • Reply to

    Magnum Hunter/Eclipse

    by jansonnl Sep 14, 2014 2:58 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 14, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    ECR has great acreage, but imo its expensive. Id like it 5 or 6 dollars lower.

  • Reply to

    Oct $7 calls volume insane

    by cimarron2665 Sep 11, 2014 1:47 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 11, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    I dont think so Lex - my brokerage acct showed open interest of 954 contracts vs volume right now of 7,960 - so its likely new positions. I'm guessing that the call purchases are driving the stock price, as market makers sell the calls and buy the stock as a hedge.

    Either way, someone is betting that news comes out in the next 36 days, and that its positive.

  • Reply to

    30 days have come and gone

    by jms54 Sep 9, 2014 10:30 PM
    cuda68300 cuda68300 Sep 10, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Natural gas is moving up here, and we're still well below the 5 year average in storage. If last year taught me anything, its that the large number of fuel oil to gas conversions that have taken place in the last 3 or 4 years can really cause demand to spike if it gets cold. I live just outside NYC, and apartment buildings up here are switching to nat gas from fuel oil at a record pace, as fuel oil #4 and #6 will be banned in NYC in the near future. A cold winter and nat gas spikes over $6 - and hopefully Gary lays on hedges like a madman.

MHR
5.87-0.15(-2.49%)Sep 19 4:06 PMEDT

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