Failed to show better than saline. Was a new approach, but saline is pretty good at wk 12 as flexion found out! Now they say they will pool data to try and get an indication - fda will say no of course.
We now have 5 failed, partially failed, or held up trials in knee OA in 12m.
Stock market values both co.s every day - by definition. They are dragging each other down it seems (ok, correlation is there, not causation!), I think they could pull each other up. I buy these for the risk/reward, as do other investors... the management get a rent whatever happens... even when they go to zero.
Maybe people are missing the: "investigator-sponsored study" bit! ie Marinus did not "do it".
Ganaxolone should work .. it does, just not well enough in eplilepsy , maybe not here either.
Agreed, that psdv has the better reward/risk profile... but i'd rather see further dilution at 12+ than 4 as now. Would one take it "for free"... of course, so issue is only the price... ie ratio. A fully integrated pharma co. always gets a higher multiple anyway.
to be emphasized that the really rare thing here is not the 40ish% growth, but the fact that the company was able to escape a toxic financing trap after a back-door listing... kind of a white swan.
Nov13 14 this became investible. In some 18 months, we have seen a 2.5x rise in the share price despite the dilution. Normally at 6x sales a medtech stock would be fully valued. But 40% growth is hard to get anywhere. So rare bigger companies gleefully pay for it ...
Here we all likely think this co. is the more valuable one in the long term, so no sense in, say, merging with ALIM. But as the relative value of ALIM drops, the math starts to change. a 95ish % gross margin on 2+ products making money already in 2017, even if one is only in Europe, would be worth a lot more than the 130 m combined EV at the moment. Of course, makes sense only if psdv's cash suffices for the combination. Alone, Alim has a ton of dilution risk priced in, but that goes away with 30 m of cash... IF they had that cash, I'd say ALIM share price would be back to 5 or even 10 after modest progress in Q2... meaning combination at 1:1 ratio would be worth 3-4 x what it is today.... ie within weeks not years!
No idea. Reason for latest drop is obvious. however, methinks Asian factories toolup late summer for the end of year demand, so a normal q2 might be followed by a good q3.
Well, i was thinking a new ATH was on the cards 2 months ago. Nothing changed in the meantime. Well, a bit more progress on Cingal ex-USA. Competition not done well. Maybe folks think FDA will reply to Anika by summer?
Well, comentators say that it was a closed deal, so +70% offered to keep out all but serious bidders. BUT if someone else is interested it is not just 10% more, it is more like 100% more....so 60?
Chatter says Jazz tried ot bid for aspx ... but could only raise 3b... so lost to teva. If this is known, could be the players force jazz to max out. Logic is that that keeps Jazz away from other deals. If they get us on the cheap, the reverse happens.. firepower just gets better.
No question the BUSINESS is on the cusp of being a decent one, maybe a good one. The financials are horrible. I want to invest but not as an unpreferred shareholder! SP trend is interesing...
Good observation. I think cpxx will get another bidder, market thinks so too. Could be that teva doubles the jazz bid. Then jazz can walk away with breakup fee and buy us... eventually!
Looks to me like the full share count will be 27 m + the 8,6 from the prefered + the 3.7 m options/w... making 40 m fully diluted. Cash from op/w will pay off the 5.6 accrued dividend... at least what it was last year. Real EV is this already 80m and Foresight sales are 15, maybe 17 this year. So valuation is already some 5x sales, given other stuff is not worth much. Add to that they need to raise cash again, hence the Zack/ROth piece?
Hardly any arb margin left... sign of another bid expectation. Who wants to leave value to Jazz. A heavyweight player can do a lot more a lot faster in the AML space than Jazz....
Not if, but when... and based on jazz kind of multiple. Plafrom might add much more.
Now we are in play. If Jazz sp does not go down, means we will look attractive to another bid. Of course 8 billion needs to be discounted back to today but still, 1.5 b is cheap once in play. I say 3 b, or goes for 60 a share!